Dataset Information

Temporal-spatial variability of modern climate in the Altai Mountains during 1970-2015.

ABSTRACT: Located in the intermediate zone between the taiga forests in Siberian Plain and the deserts in Central Asia, the Altai Mountains are of scientific concern about Holocene climate change in the past decades. However, researches about modern climate changes are relatively scarce in the Altai Mountains. In this study, temporal- spatial changes of air temperature and precipitation were investigated systematically in the Altai Mountains based on fifteen meteorological records over the period of 1970-2015. The Altai Mountains experienced a rapid warming trend with a rate of 0.41°C/decade and an insignificantly wetting trend at a rate of 4.82 mm/decade during 1970-2015. The magnitude of temperature trend was negatively correlated with elevation in cold season (spring and winter), whereas that was positively correlated with elevation in warm season (summer and autumn). The cyclonic anomalies to the northwest and an anticyclonic anomalies to the southeast blocked the southward cold air and then provided the favorable condition for an increasing precipitation via the southwesternly wind in the Altai Mountains.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7077806 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Temporal-spatial variability of modern climate in the Altai Mountains during 1970-2015.

Li Yinbo Y Zhang Dongliang D Andreeva Mariia M Li Yaoming Y Fan Lianlian L Tang Min M

PloS one 20200317 3

Located in the intermediate zone between the taiga forests in Siberian Plain and the deserts in Central Asia, the Altai Mountains are of scientific concern about Holocene climate change in the past decades. However, researches about modern climate changes are relatively scarce in the Altai Mountains. In this study, temporal- spatial changes of air temperature and precipitation were investigated systematically in the Altai Mountains based on fifteen meteorological records over the period of 1970- ...[more]

PMID: 32182258

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Project description:Cancer treatments are associated with subsequent neoplasms in survivors of childhood cancer. It is unknown whether temporal changes in therapy are associated with changes in subsequent neoplasm risk.To quantify the association between temporal changes in treatment dosing and subsequent neoplasm risk.Retrospective, multicenter cohort study of 5-year cancer survivors diagnosed before age 21 years from pediatric tertiary hospitals in the United States and Canada between 1970-1999, with follow-up through December 2015.Radiation and chemotherapy dose changes over time.Subsequent neoplasm 15-year cumulative incidence, cumulative burden, and standardized incidence ratios for subsequent malignancies, compared by treatment decade. Multivariable models assessed relative rates (RRs) of subsequent neoplasms by 5-year increments, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Mediation analyses assessed whether changes in rates of subsequent neoplasms over time were mediated by treatment variable modifications.Among 23?603 survivors of childhood cancer (mean age at diagnosis, 7.7 years; 46% female) the most common initial diagnoses were acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma, and astrocytoma. During a mean follow-up of 20.5 years (374?638 person-years at risk), 1639 survivors experienced 3115 subsequent neoplasms, including 1026 malignancies, 233 benign meningiomas, and 1856 nonmelanoma skin cancers. The most common subsequent malignancies were breast and thyroid cancers. Proportions of individuals receiving radiation decreased (77% for 1970s vs 33% for 1990s), as did median dose (30 Gy [interquartile range, 24-44] for 1970s vs 26 Gy [interquartile range, 18-45] for 1990s). Fifteen-year cumulative incidence of subsequent malignancies decreased by decade of diagnosis (2.1% [95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%] for 1970s, 1.7% [95% CI, 1.5%-2.0%] for 1980s, 1.3% [95% CI, 1.1%-1.5%] for 1990s). Reference absolute rates per 1000 person-years were 1.12 (95% CI, 0.84-1.57) for subsequent malignancies, 0.16 (95% CI, 0.06-0.41) for meningiomas, and 1.71 (95% CI, 0.88-3.33) for nonmelanoma skin cancers for survivors with reference characteristics (no chemotherapy, splenectomy, or radiation therapy; male; attained age 28 years). Standardized incidence ratios declined for subsequent malignancies over treatment decades, with advancing attained age. Relative rates declined with each 5-year increment for subsequent malignancies (RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.82-0.93]; P?<?.001), meningiomas (RR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.97]; P?=?.03), and nonmelanoma skin cancers (RR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.67-0.84]; P?<?.001). Radiation dose changes were associated with reduced risk for subsequent malignancies, meningiomas, and nonmelanoma skin cancers.Among survivors of childhood cancer, the risk of subsequent malignancies at 15 years after initial cancer diagnosis remained increased for those diagnosed in the 1990s, although the risk was lower compared with those diagnosed in the 1970s. This lower risk was associated with reduction in therapeutic radiation dose.

Project description:Most studies on the biological effects of future climatic changes rely on seasonally aggregated, coarse-resolution data. Such data mask spatial and temporal variability in microclimate driven by terrain, wind and vegetation, and ultimately bear little resemblance to the conditions that organisms experience in the wild. Here, I present the methods for providing fine-grained, hourly and daily estimates of current and future temperature and soil moisture over decadal timescales. Observed climate data and spatially coherent probabilistic projections of daily future weather were disaggregated to hourly and used to drive empirically calibrated physical models of thermal and hydrological microclimates. Mesoclimatic effects (cold-air drainage, coastal exposure and elevation) were determined from the coarse-resolution climate surfaces using thin-plate spline models with coastal exposure and elevation as predictors. Differences between micro and mesoclimate temperatures were determined from terrain, vegetation and ground properties using energy balance equations. Soil moisture was computed in a thin upper layer and an underlying deeper layer, and the exchange of water between these layers was calculated using the van Genuchten equation. Code for processing the data and running the models is provided as a series of R packages. The methods were applied to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide hourly estimates of temperature (100 m grid resolution over entire area, 1 m for a selected area) for the periods 1983-2017 and 2041-2049. Results indicated that there is a fine-resolution variability in climatic changes, driven primarily by interactions between landscape features and decadal trends in weather conditions. High-temporal resolution extremes in conditions under future climate change were predicted to be considerably less novel than the extremes estimated using seasonally aggregated variables. The study highlights the need to more accurately estimate the future climatic conditions experienced by organisms and equips biologists with the means to do so.

Dataset Information

Temporal-spatial variability of modern climate in the Altai Mountains during 1970-2015.

Publications

Temporal-spatial variability of modern climate in the Altai Mountains during 1970-2015.

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