Dataset Information

Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention.

ABSTRACT: The continuing HIV pandemic calls for broad, multi-sectoral responses that foster community control of local prevention and care services, with the goal of leveraging high quality treatment as a means of reducing HIV incidence. Service system improvements require stakeholder input from across the care continuum to identify gaps and to inform strategic plans that improve HIV service integration and delivery. System dynamics modeling offers a participatory research approach through which stakeholders learn about system complexity and about ways to achieve sustainable system-level improvements. Via an intensive group model building process with a task force of community stakeholders with diverse roles and responsibilities for HIV service implementation, delivery and surveillance, we designed and validated a multi-module system dynamics model of the HIV care continuum, in relation to local prevention and care service capacities. Multiple sources of data were used to calibrate the model for a three-county catchment area of central Connecticut. We feature a core module of the model for the purpose of illustrating its utility in understanding the dynamics of treatment as prevention at the community level. We also describe the methods used to validate the model and support its underlying assumptions to improve confidence in its use by stakeholders for systems understanding and decision making. The model's generalizability and implications of using it for future community-driven strategic planning and implementation efforts are discussed.

SUBMITTER: Weeks MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7082036 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention.

Weeks Margaret R MR Lounsbury David W DW Li Jianghong J Hirsch Gary G Berman Marcie M Green Helena D HD Rohena Lucy L Gonzalez Rosely R Montezuma-Rusca Jairo M JM Jackson Seja S

PloS one 20200319 3

The continuing HIV pandemic calls for broad, multi-sectoral responses that foster community control of local prevention and care services, with the goal of leveraging high quality treatment as a means of reducing HIV incidence. Service system improvements require stakeholder input from across the care continuum to identify gaps and to inform strategic plans that improve HIV service integration and delivery. System dynamics modeling offers a participatory research approach through which stakehold ...[more]

PMID: 32191771

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Project description:In 2011 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published guidelines for the use of population viral load (PVL), community viral load (CVL) and monitored viral load (MVL), defined as the average viral load (VL) of all HIV infected individuals in a population, of all diagnosed individuals, and of all individuals on antiretroviral treatment (ART), respectively. Since then, CVL has been used to assess the effectiveness of ART on HIV transmission and as a proxy for HIV incidence. The first objective of this study was to investigate how aggregate VL measures change with the HIV epidemic phase and the drivers behind these changes using a mathematical transmission model. Secondly, we aimed to give some insight into how well CVL correlates with HIV incidence during the course of the epidemic and roll out of ART. We developed a compartmental model for disease progression and HIV transmission with disease stages that differ in viral loads for epidemiological scenarios relevant to a concentrated epidemic in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Western Europe (WE) and to a generalized epidemic in a heterosexual population in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model predicts that PVL and CVL change with the epidemic phase, while MVL stays constant. These dynamics are linked to the dynamics of infected subgroups (undiagnosed, diagnosed untreated and treated) in different disease stages (primary, chronic and AIDS). In particular, CVL decreases through all epidemic stages: before ART, since chronic population builds up faster than AIDS population and after ART, due to the build-up of treated population with low VL. The trends in CVL and incidence can be both opposing and coinciding depending on the epidemic phase. Before ART is scaled up to sufficiently high levels, incidence increases while CVL decreases. After this point, CVL is a useful indicator of changes in HIV incidence. The model predicts that during the ART scale-up HIV transmission is driven by undiagnosed and diagnosed untreated individuals, and that new infections decline due to the increase in the number of treated. Although CVL is not able to capture the contribution of undiagnosed population to HIV transmission, it declines due to the increase of people on ART too. In the scenarios described by our model, the present epidemic phase corresponds to declining trends in CVL and incidence.

Project description:BackgroundHIV disproportionately impacts young, black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) who experience disparities across the HIV care continuum. A more nuanced understanding of facilitators and barriers to engagement in care, missed visits, antiretroviral uptake, adherence and viral suppression could improve care and intervention design.MethodsA randomized controlled trial of an online intervention, healthMpowerment, enrolled 465 YBMSM (18-30 years); 193 identified as HIV-positive. Bivariable and multivariable analyses of baseline data explored predictors of: engagement in care, missed visits, antiretroviral uptake, self-reported adherence, and viral suppression.ResultsMean age was 24.9 years; most identified as gay (71.0%) and were receiving HIV care (89.1%). Among those in care, 52.1% reported no missed visits in the past 12 months, 41 (24.6%) reported one missed visit, and 39 (23.4%) reported two or more. Having insurance (prevalence odds ratio [POR] 4.5; 95% CI: 1.3, 15.8) and provider self-efficacy (POR 20.1; 95% CI: 6.1, 64.1) were associated with being in care. Those with a college degree (POR 9.1; 95% CI: 1.9, 45.2) and no recent marijuana (POR 2.6; 95% CI: 1.2, 5.6) or methamphetamine use (POR 5.4; 95% CI: 1.0, 28.5) were less likely to miss visits. Most (n = 153, 84.1%) had been prescribed antiretroviral therapy. A majority of participants (70.8%) reported ?90% adherence; those with depressive symptoms had 4.7 times the odds of reporting adherence <90% (95% CI: 1.65, 13.37). Of participants who reported viral load testing in the past six months, 65% (n = 102) reported an undetectable viral load. Disclosure to sex partners was associated with viral suppression (POR 6.0; 95% CI: 1.6, 22.4).ConclusionsMulti-level facilitators and barriers to engagement across the continuum of care were identified in this sample of YBMSM. Understanding the distinct needs of YBMSM at each stage of the continuum and addressing them through tailored approaches is critical for long term success in care.

Dataset Information

Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention.

Publications

Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention.

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