Dataset Information

Analysis of household data on influenza epidemic with Bayesian hierarchical model.

ABSTRACT: Data used for modelling the household transmission of infectious diseases, such as influenza, have inherent multilevel structures and correlated property, which make the widely used conventional infectious disease transmission models (including the Greenwood model and the Reed-Frost model) not directly applicable within the context of a household (due to the crowded domestic condition or socioeconomic status of the household). Thus, at the household level, the effects resulting from individual-level factors, such as vaccination, may be confounded or modified in some way. We proposed the Bayesian hierarchical random-effects (random intercepts and random slopes) model under the context of generalised linear model to capture heterogeneity and variation on the individual, generation, and household levels. It was applied to empirical surveillance data on the influenza epidemic in Taiwan. The parameters of interest were estimated by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in conjunction with the Bayesian directed acyclic graphical models. Comparisons between models were made using the deviance information criterion. Based on the result of the random-slope Bayesian hierarchical method under the context of the Reed-Frost transmission model, the regression coefficient regarding the protective effect of vaccination varied statistically significantly from household to household. The result of such a heterogeneity was robust to the use of different prior distributions (including non-informative, sceptical, and enthusiastic ones). By integrating out the uncertainty of the parameters of the posterior distribution, the predictive distribution was computed to forecast the number of influenza cases allowing for random-household effect.

SUBMITTER: Hsu CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7094348 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analysis of household data on influenza epidemic with Bayesian hierarchical model.

Hsu C Y CY Yen A M F AM Chen L S LS Chen H H HH

Mathematical biosciences 20141204

Data used for modelling the household transmission of infectious diseases, such as influenza, have inherent multilevel structures and correlated property, which make the widely used conventional infectious disease transmission models (including the Greenwood model and the Reed-Frost model) not directly applicable within the context of a household (due to the crowded domestic condition or socioeconomic status of the household). Thus, at the household level, the effects resulting from individual-l ...[more]

PMID: 25484132

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Project description:BackgroundInfectious disease surveillance is a process the product of which reflects both actual disease trends and public awareness of the disease. Decisions made by patients, health care providers, and public health professionals about seeking and providing health care and about reporting cases to health authorities are all influenced by the information environment, which changes constantly. Biases are therefore imbedded in surveillance systems; these biases need to be characterized to provide better situational awareness for decision-making purposes. Our goal is to develop a statistical framework to characterize influenza surveillance systems, particularly their correlation with the information environment.MethodsWe identified Hong Kong influenza surveillance data systems covering healthcare providers, laboratories, daycare centers and residential care homes for the elderly. A Bayesian hierarchical statistical model was developed to examine the statistical relationships between the influenza surveillance data and the information environment represented by alerts from HealthMap and web queries from Google. Different models were fitted for non-pandemic and pandemic periods and model goodness-of-fit was assessed using common model selection procedures.ResultsSome surveillance systems - especially ad hoc systems developed in response to the pandemic flu outbreak - are more correlated with the information environment than others. General practitioner (percentage of influenza-like-illness related patient visits among all patient visits) and laboratory (percentage of specimen tested positive) seem to proportionally reflect the actual disease trends and are less representative of the information environment. Surveillance systems using influenza-specific code for reporting tend to reflect biases of both healthcare seekers and providers.ConclusionsThis study shows certain influenza surveillance systems are less correlated with the information environment than others, and therefore, might represent more reliable indicators of disease activity in future outbreaks. Although the patterns identified in this study might change in future outbreaks, the potential susceptibility of surveillance data is likely to persist in the future, and should be considered when interpreting surveillance data.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Identification of differentially expressed genes is a typical objective when analyzing gene expression data. Recently, Bayesian hierarchical models have become increasingly popular to solve this type of problems. These models show good performance in accommodating noise, variability and low replication of microarray data. However, the correlation between different fluorescent signals measured from a gene spot is ignored, which can diversely affect the data analysis step. In fact, the intensities of the two signals are significantly correlated across samples. The larger the log-transformed intensities are, the smaller the correlation is. RESULTS: Motivated by the complicated error relations in microarray data, we propose a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian framework for data analysis in the replicated microarray experiments. Gene expression data are modelled by a multivariate normal distribution, parameterized by the corresponding mean vectors and covariance matrixes with a conjugate prior distribution. Within the Bayesian framework, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is also developed to infer the gene expression patterns. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach presents better operating characteristics and lower false discovery rate (FDR) than existing methods, especially when the correlation coefficient is large. The approach is illustrated with two examples of microarray analysis. The proposed method successfully detects significant genes closely related to the experimental states, which are verified by the biological information. CONCLUSIONS: The multivariate Bayesian model, compatible with the dependence between mean and variance in the univariate Bayesian model, relaxes the constant coefficient of variation assumption between measurements by adding a covariance structure. This model improves the identification of differentially expressed genes significantly since the Bayesian model fit well with the microarray data.

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Analysis of household data on influenza epidemic with Bayesian hierarchical model.

Publications

Analysis of household data on influenza epidemic with Bayesian hierarchical model.

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