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A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections.

ABSTRACT: Antiviral agents are an important component in mitigation/containment strategies for pandemic influenza. However, most research for mitigation/containment strategies relies on the antiviral efficacies evaluated from limited data of clinical trials. Which efficacy measures can be reliably estimated from these studies depends on the trial design, the size of the epidemics, and the statistical methods. We propose a Bayesian framework for modeling the influenza transmission dynamics within households. This Bayesian framework takes into account asymptomatic infections and is able to estimate efficacies with respect to protecting against viral infection, infection with clinical disease, and pathogenicity (the probability of disease given infection). We use the method to reanalyze 2 clinical studies of oseltamivir, an influenza antiviral agent, and compare the results with previous analyses. We found significant prophylactic efficacies in reducing the risk of viral infection and infection with disease but no prophylactic efficacy in reducing pathogenicity. We also found significant therapeutic efficacies in reducing pathogenicity and the risk of infection with disease but no therapeutic efficacy in reducing the risk of viral infection in the contacts.

SUBMITTER: Yang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2733175 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections.

Yang Yang Y Halloran M Elizabeth ME Longini Ira M IM

Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 20090206 2

Antiviral agents are an important component in mitigation/containment strategies for pandemic influenza. However, most research for mitigation/containment strategies relies on the antiviral efficacies evaluated from limited data of clinical trials. Which efficacy measures can be reliably estimated from these studies depends on the trial design, the size of the epidemics, and the statistical methods. We propose a Bayesian framework for modeling the influenza transmission dynamics within household ...[more]

PMID: 19202152

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Project description:Human norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide, affecting every year 685 million people. Norovirus outbreaks are associated with very significant economic losses, with an estimated societal cost of 60 billion USD per year. Despite this, no therapeutic options or vaccines are currently available to treat or prevent this infection. An antiviral therapy that can be used as treatment and as a prophylactic measure in the case of outbreaks is urgently needed. We previously described the computer-aided design and synthesis of novel small-molecule agents able to inhibit the replication of human norovirus in cell-based systems. These compounds are non-nucleoside inhibitors of the viral polymerase and are characterized by a terminal para-substituted phenyl group connected to a central phenyl ring by an amide-thioamide linker, and a terminal thiophene ring. Here we describe new modifications of these scaffolds focused on exploring the role of the substituent at the para position of the terminal phenyl ring and on removing the thioamide portion of the amide-thioamide linker, to further explore structure-activity relationships (SARs) and improve antiviral properties. According to three to four-step synthetic routes, we prepared thirty novel compounds, which were then evaluated against the replication of both murine (MNV) and human (HuNoV) norovirus in cells. Derivatives in which the terminal phenyl group has been replaced by an unsubstituted benzoxazole or indole, and the thioamide component of the amide-thioamide linker has been removed, showed promising results in inhibiting HuNoV replication at low micromolar concentrations. Particularly, compound 28 was found to have an EC50 against HuNoV of 0.9 µM. Although the most active novel derivatives were also associated with an increased cytotoxicity in the human cell line, these compounds represent a very promising starting point for the development of new analogues with reduced cytotoxicity and improved selectivity indexes. In addition, the experimental biological data have been used to create an initial 3D quantitative structure-activity relationship model, which could be used to guide the future design of novel potential anti-norovirus agents.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections.

Publications

A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections.

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