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Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

ABSTRACT: As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9-2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557?=?4.5%) and the approximator¹ of deaths/deaths?+?recoveries (2,169/2,169?+?17,572?=?11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30-59?years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3-1.1) and 5.1 (4.2-6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30-60 years).

SUBMITTER: Wu JT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7094929 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Wu Joseph T JT Leung Kathy K Bushman Mary M Kishore Nishant N Niehus Rene R de Salazar Pablo M PM Cowling Benjamin J BJ Lipsitch Marc M Leung Gabriel M GM

Nature medicine 20200319 4

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (t ...[more]

PMID: 32284616

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Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a great threat to global public health. There remains an urgent need to address the clinical significance of laboratory finding changes in predicting disease progression in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to analyze the clinical and immunological features of severe and critically severe patients with COVID-19 in comparison with non-severe patients and identify risk factors for disease severity and clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients.MethodsThe consecutive records of 211 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from December 2019 to February 2020 were retrospectively reviewed.ResultsOf the 211 patients with COVID-19 recruited, 111 patients were classified as non-severe, 59 as severe, and 41 as critically severe cases. The median age was obviously higher in severe and critically severe cases than in non-severe cases. Severe and critically severe patients showed more underlying comorbidities than non-severe patients. Fever was the predominant presenting symptom in COVID-19 patients, and the duration of fever was longer in critically severe patients. Moreover, patients with increased levels of serum aminotransferases and creatinine (CREA) were at a higher risk for severe and critical COVID-19 presentations. The serum levels of IL-6 in severe and critically severe patients were remarkably higher than in non-severe patients. Lymphopenia was more pronounced in severe and critically severe patients compared with non-severe patients. Lymphocyte subset analysis indicated that severe and critically severe patients had significantly decreased count of lymphocyte subpopulations, such as CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells and B cells. A multivariate logistic analysis indicated that older age, male sex, the length of hospital stay, body temperature before admission, comorbidities, higher white blood cell (WBC) counts, lower lymphocyte counts, and increased levels of IL-6 were significantly associated with predicting the progression to severe stage of COVID-19.ConclusionOlder age, male sex, underlying illness, sustained fever status, abnormal liver and renal functions, excessive expression of IL-6, lymphopenia, and selective loss of peripheral lymphocyte subsets were related to disease deterioration and clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients. This study would provide clinicians with valuable information for risk evaluation and effective interventions for COVID-19.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Since December 2019, an outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) initially emerged in Wuhan, China, and has spread worldwide now. Clinical features of patients with COVID-19 have been described. However, risk factors leading to in-hospital deterioration and poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients with severe disease have not been well identified. METHODS:In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, 1190 adult inpatients (??18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and determined outcomes (discharged or died) were included from Wuhan Infectious Disease Hospital from December 29, 2019 to February 28, 2020. The final follow-up date was March 2, 2020. Clinical data including characteristics, laboratory and imaging information as well as treatments were extracted from electronic medical records and compared. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to explore the potential predictors associated with in-hospital deterioration and death. RESULTS:1190 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Their median age was 57 years (interquartile range 47-67 years). Two hundred and sixty-one patients (22%) developed a severe illness after admission. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that higher SOFA score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22-1.43, per score increase, p?<?0.001 for deterioration and OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11-1.53, per score increase, p?=?0.001 for death), lymphocytopenia (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.13-2.89 p?=?0.013 for deterioration; OR 4.44, 95% CI 1.26-15.87, p?=?0.021 for death) on admission were independent risk factors for in-hospital deterioration from not severe to severe disease and for death in severe patients. On admission D-dimer greater than 1 ?g/L (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.19-9.04, p?=?0.021), leukocytopenia (OR 5.10, 95% CI 1.25-20.78), thrombocytopenia (OR 8.37, 95% CI 2.04-34.44) and history of diabetes (OR 11.16, 95% CI 1.87-66.57, p?=?0.008) were also associated with higher risks of in-hospital death in severe COVID-19 patients. Shorter time interval from illness onset to non-invasive mechanical ventilation in the survivors with severe disease was observed compared with non-survivors (10.5 days, IQR 9.25-11.0 vs. 16.0 days, IQR 11.0-19.0 days, p?=?0.030). Treatment with glucocorticoids increased the risk of progression from not severe to severe disease (OR 3.79, 95% CI 2.39-6.01, p?<?0.001). Administration of antiviral drugs especially oseltamivir or ganciclovir is associated with a decreased risk of death in severe patients (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.64, p?<?0.001). CONCLUSIONS:High SOFA score and lymphocytopenia on admission could predict that not severe patients would develop severe disease in-hospital. On admission elevated D-dimer, leukocytopenia, thrombocytopenia and diabetes were independent risk factors of in-hospital death in severe patients with COVID-19. Administration of oseltamivir or ganciclovir might be beneficial for reducing mortality in severe patients.

Dataset Information

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Publications

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

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