Dataset Information

Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

ABSTRACT: The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, where a first wave of intense community transmission was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data source, we estimated the disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 by age in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We adjusted estimates for sensitivity of laboratory assays and accounted for prospective community screenings and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95%CI: 703-977), 489 (472-509), 370 (358-384), and 36.2 (35.0-37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza, and that clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Yang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7480068 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

Yang Juan J Chen Xinhua X Deng Xiaowei X Chen Zhiyuan Z Gong Hui H Yan Han H Wu Qianhui Q Shi Huilin H Lai Shengjie S Ajelli Marco M Viboud Cecile C Yu Hongjie H

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200901

The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, where a first wave of intense community transmission was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data source, we estimated the disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 by age in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We adjusted estimates for sensitivity of laboratory assays and accounted for prospective community screenings and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical con ...[more]

PMID: 32909016

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAs of March 18, 2020, 13 415 confirmed cases and 120 deaths related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, outside Hubei province-the epicentre of the outbreak-had been reported. Since late January, massive public health interventions have been implemented nationwide to contain the outbreak. We provide an impact assessment of the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 during the first wave in mainland Chinese locations outside Hubei.MethodsWe estimated the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, and the ten Chinese provinces that had the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases; and the confirmed case-fatality risk (cCFR) in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wenzhou, and all 31 Chinese provinces. We used a susceptible-infectious-recovered model to show the potential effects of relaxing containment measures after the first wave of infection, in anticipation of a possible second wave.FindingsIn all selected cities and provinces, the Rt decreased substantially since Jan 23, when control measures were implemented, and have since remained below 1. The cCFR outside Hubei was 0·98% (95% CI 0·82-1·16), which was almost five times lower than that in Hubei (5·91%, 5·73-6·09). Relaxing the interventions (resulting in Rt >1) when the epidemic size was still small would increase the cumulative case count exponentially as a function of relaxation duration, even if aggressive interventions could subsequently push disease prevalence back to the baseline level.InterpretationThe first wave of COVID-19 outside of Hubei has abated because of aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, given the substantial risk of viral reintroduction, particularly from overseas importation, close monitoring of Rt and cCFR is needed to inform strategies against a potential second wave to achieve an optimal balance between health and economic protection.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong, China.

Dataset Information

Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

Publications

Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets