Dataset Information

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy.

Methods

We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model.

Results

Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy.

Conclusions

If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.

SUBMITTER: Blakely T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7098589 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity.

Blakely Tony T Nghiem Nhung N Genc Murat M Mizdrak Anja A Cobiac Linda L Mhurchu Cliona Ni CN Swinburn Boyd B Scarborough Peter P Cleghorn Christine C

PloS one 20200326 3

<h4>Background</h4>Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all ...[more]

PMID: 32214329

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Project description:BackgroundAn increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood.Methods and findingsUsing a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food (<1% change). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the interventions individually, then determined the optimal combination based on maximising net monetary benefit at a threshold of AU$50,000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY). The simulations suggested that the combination of taxes and subsidy might avert as many as 470,000 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 420,000 to 510,000) in the Australian population of 22 million, with a net cost-saving of AU$3.4 billion (95% UI: AU$2.4 billion to AU$4.6 billion; US$2.3 billion) to the health sector. Of the taxes evaluated, the sugar tax produced the biggest estimates of health gain (270,000 [95% UI: 250,000 to 290,000] DALYs averted), followed by the salt tax (130,000 [95% UI: 120,000 to 140,000] DALYs), the saturated fat tax (97,000 [95% UI: 77,000 to 120,000] DALYs), and the sugar-sweetened beverage tax (12,000 [95% UI: 2,100 to 21,000] DALYs). The fruit and vegetable subsidy (-13,000 [95% UI: -44,000 to 18,000] DALYs) was a cost-effective addition to the package of taxes. However, it did not necessarily lead to a net health benefit for the population when modelled as an intervention on its own, because of the possible adverse cross-price elasticity effects on consumption of other foods (e.g., foods high in saturated fat and salt). The study suggests that taxes and subsidies on foods and beverages can potentially be combined to achieve substantial improvements in population health and cost-savings to the health sector. However, the magnitude of health benefits is sensitive to measures of price elasticity, and further work is needed to incorporate potential benefits or harms associated with changes in other foods and nutrients that are not currently modelled, such as red and processed meats and fibre.ConclusionsWith potentially large health benefits for the Australian population and large benefits in reducing health sector spending on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, the formulation of a tax and subsidy package should be given a more prominent role in Australia's public health nutrition strategy.

Project description:ImportanceFiscal policy is a promising approach to incentivizing better food choices and reducing the burden of chronic disease. To inform guidelines on using fiscal policies, including taxes and subsidies, to promote health, the World Health Organization commissioned a systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide literature on the outcomes of such policies for food products.ObjectiveTo assess the outcomes of implemented food taxes and subsidies for prices, sales, consumption, and population-level diet and health.Data sourcesEight bibliographic databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature and 14 data sources along with governmental websites were searched for grey literature that were published from database inception through June 1, 2020. There were no language and setting restrictions.Study selectionOnly primary studies of implemented food taxes and subsidies were considered for inclusion.Data extraction and synthesisThe Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. A 3-level random-effects model was used to conduct a meta-analysis of sales and consumption outcomes of fruit and vegetable subsidies. Other outcomes were analyzed in a narrative synthesis.Main outcomes and measuresStudy estimates in the meta-analysis were combined using a price elasticity measure for sales and consumption outcomes. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic and τ2. Studies varied in how diet and health were measured.ResultsA total of 54 articles were included in the systematic review, of which 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Most food subsidies targeted fruits and vegetables and populations with low income, whereas the evidence on food taxes was primarily from the nonessential energy-dense food tax in Mexico. Sales of subsidized fruits and vegetables increased significantly, with an estimated price elasticity of demand of -0.59 (95% CI, -1.04 to -0.13 [P = .02]; 95% prediction interval, -2.07 to 0.90; I2 = 92.4% [95% CI, 89.0%-94.8%; P < .001]), suggesting inelastic demand. There was no significant change in the consumption of subsidized fruits and vegetables, with an estimated price elasticity of demand of -0.17 (95% CI, -0.49 to 0.15 [P = .26]; 95% prediction interval, -1.01 to 0.67; I2 = 76.2% [95% CI, 54.3%-87.6%; P < .001]). Food excise taxes were associated with higher prices and reduced sales. Evidence was limited on the differential outcomes of food taxes and subsidies across subpopulations.Conclusions and relevanceResults of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that fruit and vegetable subsidies were associated with a moderate increase in fruit and vegetable sales. Further research is warranted to understand the implications of food taxes and subsidies for population-level consumption, diet, and health outcomes.

Dataset Information

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity.

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