Dataset Information

The contribution of respiratory pathogens to the seasonality of NHS Direct calls.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Primary care is thought to bear half the cost of treating infections in the UK. We describe the seasonal variation in NHS Direct respiratory calls (a new source of primary care data) and estimate the contribution of specific respiratory pathogens to this variation. METHODS:Linear regression models were used to estimate the weekly contribution of specific respiratory pathogens to the volume of NHS Direct respiratory calls (England and Wales, 2002-2004, all ages and 0-4 years). RESULTS:Annual peaks in NHS Direct cough and difficulty breathing calls occurred in late December, with peaks in 'cold/flu' and fever calls occurring between November and April. The main explanatory variables were influenza (estimated to account for 72.5 calls per 100,000/year; 22% of 'cold/flu' calls; 15% of cough; and 13% of fever) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (55.5 per 100,000; 33% of 'cold/flu' calls; 20% of cough; and 15% of fever (0-4 years)). CONCLUSIONS:It is estimated that respiratory viruses, notably influenza and RSV, are responsible for at least 50% of the seasonal variation in NHS Direct respiratory calls. These results provide estimates of the burden of specific respiratory diseases reported to NHS Direct, and will help interpret syndromic surveillance data used to provide early warning of rises in community morbidity.

SUBMITTER: Cooper DL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7112625 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The contribution of respiratory pathogens to the seasonality of NHS Direct calls.

Cooper D L DL Smith G E GE Edmunds W J WJ Joseph C C Gerard E E George R C RC

The Journal of infection 20070620 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>Primary care is thought to bear half the cost of treating infections in the UK. We describe the seasonal variation in NHS Direct respiratory calls (a new source of primary care data) and estimate the contribution of specific respiratory pathogens to this variation.<h4>Methods</h4>Linear regression models were used to estimate the weekly contribution of specific respiratory pathogens to the volume of NHS Direct respiratory calls (England and Wales, 2002-2004, all ages and 0-4 y ...[more]

PMID: 17582503

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Project description:BackgroundSeasonal variations are often observed for respiratory tract infections; however, limited information is available regarding seasonal patterns of acquisition of common cystic fibrosis (CF)-related respiratory pathogens. We previously reported differential seasonal acquisition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in young children with CF and no such variation for methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus acquisition. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the seasonal incidence of acquisition of other respiratory bacterial pathogens in young children with CF.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study to describe and compare the seasonal incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Achromobacter xylosoxidans, and Haemophilus influenzae acquisition in young CF patients residing in the U.S. using the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation National Patient Registry, 2003-2009. Log-linear overdispersed Poisson regression was used to evaluate seasonal acquisition of each of these pathogens.ResultsA total of 4552 children met inclusion criteria. During follow-up 910 (20%), 1161 (26%), 228 (5%), and 2148 (47%) children acquired MRSA, S. maltophilia, A. xylosoxidans and H. influenzae, respectively. Compared to winter season, MRSA was less frequently acquired in spring (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]: 0.79; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.65, 0.96) and summer (IRR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.84) seasons. Similarly, a lower rate of A. xylosoxidans acquisition was observed in spring (IRR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.89). For H. influenzae, summer (IRR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.99) and autumn (IRR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.88) seasons were associated with lower acquisition rates compared to winter. No seasonal variation was observed for S. maltophilia acquisition.ConclusionAcquisition of CF-related respiratory pathogens displays seasonal variation in young children with CF, with the highest rate of acquisition for most pathogens occurring in the winter. Investigation of factors underlying these observed associations may contribute to our understanding of the aetiology of these infections and guide future infection control strategies.

Project description:BACKGROUND: An evaluation of NHS Direct Wales (NHSDW), a national telephone-based healthcare advice and information service, was undertaken. A key objective was to describe the actions of callers and assess the appropriateness of advice and healthcare contacts made following calls, results of which are reported here. METHODS: Postal questionnaires were sent to consecutive callers to NHSDW in May 2002 and February 2004 to determine 1) callers' actions following calls and 2) their views about the appropriateness of: advice given; and when to seek further care. An independent clinical panel agreed and applied a set of rules about healthcare sites where examinations, investigations, treatments and referrals could be obtained. The rules were then applied to the subsequent contacts to healthcare services reported by respondents and actions were classified in terms of whether they had been necessary and sufficient for the care received. RESULTS: Response rates were similar in each survey: 1033/1897 (54.5%); 606/1204 (50.3%), with 75% reporting contacting NHSDW. In both surveys, nearly half of all callers reported making no further healthcare contact after their call to NHSDW. The most frequent subsequent contacts made were with GPs.More than four fifths of callers rated the advice given - concerning any further care needed and when to seek it - as appropriate (further care needed: survey 1: 673/729, 82.3%; survey 2: 389/421, 92.4%; when to seek further care - survey 1: 462/555, 83.2%; survey 2: n = 295/346, 85.3%). A similar proportion of cases was also rated through the rule set and backed up by the clinical panel as having taken necessary and sufficient actions following their calls to NHSDW (survey 1: 624/729, 80.6%; survey 2: 362/421, 84.4%), with more unnecessary than insufficient actions identified at each survey (survey 1: unnecessary 132/729, 17.1% versus insufficient 11/729, 1.4%; survey 2: unnecessary 47/421, 11.0% versus insufficient 14/421, 3.3%). CONCLUSION: Based on NHSDW caller surveys responses and applying a transparent rule set to caller actions a large majority of subsequent actions were assessed as appropriate, with insufficient contacts particularly infrequent. The challenge for NHSDW is to reduce the number of unnecessary contacts made following calls to the service, whilst maintaining safety.

Project description:BackgroundThe survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.MethodsRespiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods.ResultsThe seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle.ConclusionsThe dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.

Project description:ImportanceEvery year, respiratory viruses exact a heavy burden on Canadian hospitals during winter months. Generalizable seasonal patterns of respiratory virus transmission may estimate the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 or other emerging pathogens.ObjectiveTo describe the annual and biennial variation in respiratory virus seasonality in a northern climate.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study is an epidemiological assessment using population-based surveillance of patients with medically attended respiratory tract infection from 2005 through 2017 in Alberta, Canada. Incident cases of respiratory virus infection and infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations in Alberta were extracted from the Data Integration for Alberta Laboratories platform and Alberta Health Services Discharge Abstract Database, respectively. A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible mathematical model with seasonal forcing function was fitted to the data for each virus. The possible future seasonal course of SARS-CoV-2 in northern latitudes was modeled on the basis of these observations. The analysis was conducted between December 15, 2020, and February 10, 2021.ExposuresSeasonal respiratory pathogens.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence (temporal pattern) of respiratory virus infections and RSV hospitalizations.ResultsA total of 37 719 incident infections with RSV, human metapneumovirus, or human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, or HKU1 among 35 375 patients (18 069 [51.1%] male; median [interquartile range], 1.29 [0.42-12.2] years) were documented. A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model mirrored the epidemiological data, including a striking biennial variation with alternating severe and mild winter peaks. Qualitative description of the model and numerical simulations showed that strong seasonal contact rate and temporary immunity lasting 6 to 12 months were sufficient to explain biennial seasonality in these various respiratory viruses. The seasonality of 10 212 hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years with RSV was also explored. The median (interquartile range) rate of hospitalizations per 1000 live births was 18.6 (17.6-19.9) and 11.0 (10.4-11.7) in alternating even (severe) and odd (less-severe) seasons, respectively (P = .001). The hazard of admission was higher for children born in severe (even) seasons compared with those born in less-severe (odd) seasons (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.61-1.75; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study of respiratory viruses in Alberta, Canada, the seasonality followed a pattern estimated by simple mathematical models, which may be informative for anticipating future waves of pandemic SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

The contribution of respiratory pathogens to the seasonality of NHS Direct calls.

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The contribution of respiratory pathogens to the seasonality of NHS Direct calls.

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