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Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals.

ABSTRACT: Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

SUBMITTER: de Villemereuil P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7116484 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Key messageA breeding strategy combining genomic with one-stage phenotypic selection maximizes annual selection gain for net merit. Choice of the selection index strongly affects the selection gain expected in individual traits. Selection indices using genomic information have been proposed in crop-specific scenarios. Routine use of genomic selection (GS) for simultaneous improvement of multiple traits requires information about the impact of the available economic and logistic resources and genetic properties (variances, trait correlations, and prediction accuracies) of the breeding population on the expected selection gain. We extended the R package "selectiongain" from single trait to index selection to optimize and compare breeding strategies for simultaneous improvement of two traits. We focused on the expected annual selection gain (ΔGa) for traits differing in their genetic correlation, economic weights, variance components, and prediction accuracies of GS. For all scenarios considered, breeding strategy GSrapid (one-stage GS followed by one-stage phenotypic selection) achieved higher ΔGa than classical two-stage phenotypic selection, regardless of the index chosen to combine the two traits and the prediction accuracy of GS. The Smith-Hazel or base index delivered higher ΔGa for net merit and individual traits compared to selection by independent culling levels, whereas the restricted index led to lower ΔGa in net merit and divergent results for selection gain of individual traits. The differences among the indices depended strongly on the correlation of traits, their variance components, and economic weights, underpinning the importance of choosing the selection indices according to the goal of the breeding program. We demonstrate our theoretical derivations and extensions of the R package "selectiongain" with an example from hybrid wheat by designing indices to simultaneously improve grain yield and grain protein content or sedimentation volume.

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Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals.

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