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The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States.

ABSTRACT: Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10-15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

SUBMITTER: Maia-Silva D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7125155 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States.

Maia-Silva Debora D Kumar Rohini R Nateghi Roshanak R

Nature communications 20200403 1

Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitiv ...[more]

PMID: 32245945

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Project description:After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.

Project description:Involvement of clinical pharmacists in the ICU attenuates costs, avoids adverse drug events, and reduces morbidity and mortality. This survey assessed services and activities of ICU pharmacists.DesignA 27-question, pretested survey.Setting1,220 U.S. institutions.SubjectsCritical care pharmacists.InterventionsElectronic questionnaire of pharmacy services and activities across clinical practice, education, scholarship, and administration.Measurements and main resultsA total of 401 (response rate of 35.4%) surveys representing 493 ICUs were completed. Median daily ICU census was 12 (interquartile range, 6-20) beds with 1 (interquartile range, 1-1.5) pharmacist full-time equivalent per ICU. Direct clinical ICU pharmacy services were available in 70.8% of ICUs. Pharmacists attended rounds 5 days (interquartile range, 4-5 d) per week with a median patient-to-pharmacist ratio of 17 (interquartile range, 12-26). The typical workweek consisted of 50% (interquartile range, 40-60%) direct ICU patient care, 10% (interquartile range, 8-16%) teaching, 8% (interquartile range, 5-18%) order processing, 5% (interquartile range, 0-20%) direct non-ICU patient care, 5% (interquartile range, 2-10%) administration, 5% (interquartile range, 0-10%) scholarship, and 0% (interquartile range, 0-5%) drug distribution. Common clinical activities as a percentage of the workweek were reviewing drug histories (28.5%); assessing adverse events (27.6%); and evaluating (26.1%), monitoring (23.8%), and managing (21.4%) drug therapies. Services were less likely to occur overnight or on weekends. Telemedicine was rarely employed. Dependent prescriptive authority (per protocol or via practice agreements) was available to 51.1% of pharmacists and independent prescriptive authority was provided by 13.4% of pharmacists. Educational services most frequently provided were inservices (97.6%) and experiential training of students or residents (89%). Education of ICU healthcare members was provided at a median of 5 times/mo (interquartile range, 3-15 times/mo). Most respondents were involved with ICU or departmental policies/guidelines (84-86.8%) and 65.7% conducted some form of scholarship.ConclusionsICU pharmacists have diverse and versatile responsibilities and provide several key clinical and nonclinical services. Initiatives to increase the availability of services are warranted.

Dataset Information

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States.

Publications

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States.

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