Dataset Information

Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

ABSTRACT: After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.

SUBMITTER: Honjo K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5927419 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

Honjo Keita K Shiraki Hiroto H Ashina Shuichi S

PloS one 20180430 4

After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantita ...[more]

PMID: 29708988

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Understanding seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) epidemics may lead to identify potentially modifiable risk factors. Studies conducted outside Japan have found seasonal variation among reported TB cases, with peaks in spring and summer and low prevalence in fall and winter. One hypothesis regarding spring or summer peaks in TB epidemics is that TB transmission likely increases in winter because of indoor crowding and poor ventilation, with development of primary TB among socially vulnerable people in spring and summer. Another plausible explanation is that vitamin D deficiency in winter depresses immunity, increasing the TB reactivation risk in these seasons. Previous studies suggest latitude-dependent factors, including reduced winter sunlight and its effect on vitamin D levels. Here, we investigated mechanisms of seasonality in TB epidemics in Japan, according to the effects of crowding and latitude. METHODS:We used time-series analysis consisting of spectral analysis and least-squares method, to analyse geographically specific monthly number of newly registered cases of all forms of active TB in all 47 prefectures of Japan during 1998-2015. RESULTS:In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to a 1-year cycle. The degree of this seasonality was associated with population density. We did not detect greater amplitude of seasonality at higher latitudes, suggesting that latitude-dependent factors, including reduced winter sunlight and its potential effect on vitamin D levels, do not contribute significantly to seasonality in Japan. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION:In districts with high population density, measures are needed to address two specific types of active infection risk in adolescents and middle-aged adults: (i) public transport use, and (ii) irregular employment with no periodic medical examinations. To control active TB epidemics, investigating periodic structures in the temporal patterns of active TB in each district and each age group is important.

Dataset Information

Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

Publications

Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

Similar Datasets

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