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Within-host priority effects and epidemic timing determine outbreak severity in co-infected populations.

ABSTRACT: Co-infections of hosts by multiple pathogen species are ubiquitous, but predicting their impact on disease remains challenging. Interactions between co-infecting pathogens within hosts can alter pathogen transmission, with the impact on transmission typically dependent on the relative arrival order of pathogens within hosts (within-host priority effects). However, it is unclear how these within-host priority effects influence multi-pathogen epidemics, particularly when the arrival order of pathogens at the host-population scale varies. Here, we combined models and experiments with zooplankton and their naturally co-occurring fungal and bacterial pathogens to examine how within-host priority effects influence multi-pathogen epidemics. Epidemiological models parametrized with within-host priority effects measured at the single-host scale predicted that advancing the start date of bacterial epidemics relative to fungal epidemics would decrease the mean bacterial prevalence in a multi-pathogen setting, while models without within-host priority effects predicted the opposite effect. We tested these predictions with experimental multi-pathogen epidemics. Empirical dynamics matched predictions from the model including within-host priority effects, providing evidence that within-host priority effects influenced epidemic dynamics. Overall, within-host priority effects may be a key element of predicting multi-pathogen epidemic dynamics in the future, particularly as shifting disease phenology alters the order of infection within hosts.

SUBMITTER: Clay PA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7126067 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:UnlabelledDuring the dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) epidemic that occurred in Havana in 2001 to 2002, severe disease was associated with the infection sequence DENV-1 followed by DENV-3 (DENV-1/DENV-3), while the sequence DENV-2/DENV-3 was associated with mild/asymptomatic infections. To determine the role of the virus in the increasing severity demonstrated during the epidemic, serum samples collected at different time points were studied. A total of 22 full-length sequences were obtained using a deep-sequencing approach. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of consensus sequences revealed that two DENV-3 lineages were circulating in Havana at that time, both grouped within genotype III. The predominant lineage is closely related to Peruvian and Ecuadorian strains, while the minor lineage is related to Venezuelan strains. According to consensus sequences, relatively few nonsynonymous mutations were observed; only one was fixed during the epidemic at position 4380 in the NS2B gene. Intrahost genetic analysis indicated that a significant minor population was selected and became predominant toward the end of the epidemic. In conclusion, greater variability was detected during the epidemic's progression in terms of significant minority variants, particularly in the nonstructural genes. An increasing trend of genetic diversity toward the end of the epidemic was observed only for synonymous variant allele rates, with higher variability in secondary cases. Remarkably, significant intrahost genetic variation was demonstrated within the same patient during the course of secondary infection with DENV-1/DENV-3, including changes in the structural proteins premembrane (PrM) and envelope (E). Therefore, the dynamic of evolving viral populations in the context of heterotypic antibodies could be related to the increasing clinical severity observed during the epidemic.ImportanceBased on the evidence that DENV fitness is context dependent, our research has focused on the study of viral factors associated with intraepidemic increasing severity in a unique epidemiological setting. Here, we investigated the intrahost genetic diversity in acute human samples collected at different time points during the DENV-3 epidemic that occurred in Cuba in 2001 to 2002 using a deep-sequencing approach. We concluded that greater variability in significant minor populations occurred as the epidemic progressed, particularly in the nonstructural genes, with higher variability observed in secondary infection cases. Remarkably, for the first time significant intrahost genetic variation was demonstrated within the same patient during the course of secondary infection with DENV-1/DENV-3, including changes in structural proteins. These findings indicate that high-resolution approaches are needed to unravel molecular mechanisms involved in dengue pathogenesis.

Project description:BackgroundOptimal timing for initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-TB coinfected patients is challenging for clinicians. We aim to evaluate the impact of different timing of HAART initiation on TB outcome of HIV-infected adults in Taiwan.MethodsA population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted through linking the HIV and TB registries of Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) during 1997 to 2006. Clinical data of HIV-TB co-infected patients, including the presence of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), was collected through medical records review. The outcome of interest was all-cause mortality within 1 year following TB diagnosis. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to explore the probability of death and IRIS after TB diagnosis by adjusting for confounding factors and factors of interest. The probability of survival and TB IRIS were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared between different HAART initiation timing groups by the log-rank test.ResultsThere were 229 HIV-TB co-infected patients included for analysis and 60 cases (26.2%) died within one year. Besides decreasing age and increasing CD4 lymphocyte count, having started HAART during TB treatment was significantly associated with better survival (adjusted Hazard Ratio was 0.11, 95% CI 0.06-0.21). As to the timing of HAART initiation, there was only non-significant benefit on survival among cases initiating HAART within 15 days, at 16-30 days and at 31-60 days of TB treatment than initiating after 60 days. Cases with HAART initiated after 30 days had lower risk in developing IRIS than cases with HAART initiated earlier. Cases with IRIS had significantly higher rate of re-hospitalization (49% vs. 4%, p?<?0.001) and prolonged hospitalization (28 days vs. 18.5 days, p?<?0.01).ConclusionThe present study found that starting HAART during TB treatment is associated with better one-year survival, although earlier initiation within 60 days of TB treatment did not show statistical differences in survival than later initiation. Initiation of HAART within 30 days appeared to increase the risk of IRIS. Deferring HAART to 31-60 days of TB treatment might be optimal after considering the risks and benefits.

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Within-host priority effects and epidemic timing determine outbreak severity in co-infected populations.

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