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Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread.

ABSTRACT: Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population is greater than that of the focus. Disease control treatments administered shortly after the initial outbreak within the focus may either prevent an epidemic from occurring or reduce its severity.

SUBMITTER: Severns PM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4263813 | biostudies-other | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread.

Severns Paul M PM Estep Laura K LK Sackett Kathryn E KE Mundt Christopher C CC

The Journal of applied ecology 20141201 6

Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust <i>Puccinia striiformis</i> f. sp. <i>tri ...[more]

PMID: 25512677

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Project description:Rapid responses in the early stage of a new epidemic are crucial in outbreak control. Public holidays for outbreak control could provide a critical time window for a rapid rollout of social distancing and other control measures at a large population scale. The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in China starting from January 2020. We projected and compared epidemic trajectories with and without an outbreak-control holiday that started during the Chinese Lunar New Year. We considered multiple scenarios of the outbreak-control holiday with different durations and starting times, and under different assumptions about viral transmission rates. We estimated the delays in days to reach certain thresholds of infections under different scenarios. Our results show that the outbreak-control holiday in China likely stalled the spread of COVID-19 for several days. The base case outbreak-control holiday (21 d for Hubei Province and 10 d for all other provinces) delayed the time to reach 100 000 confirmed infections by 7.54 d. A longer outbreak-control holiday would have had stronger effects. A nationwide outbreak-control holiday of 21 d would have delayed the time to 100 000 confirmed infections by nearly 10 d. Furthermore, we find that outbreak-control holidays that start earlier in the course of a new epidemic are more effective in stalling epidemic spread than later holidays and that additional control measures during the holidays can boost the holiday effect. In conclusion, an outbreak-control holiday can likely effectively delay the transmission of epidemics that spread through social contacts. The temporary delay in the epidemic trajectory buys time, which scientists can use to discover transmission routes and identify effective public health interventions and which governments can use to build physical infrastructure, organize medical supplies, and deploy human resources for long-term epidemic mitigation and control efforts.

Project description:BackgroundPatients with bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs) exhibit an increased risk of Parkinson's disease (PD).ObjectiveThe aim is to investigate whether a previous diagnosis of BSDs influences the phenotype of PD.MethodsOf 2660 PD patients followed for at least 6 years (6-27), 250 (BSD-PD) had BSDs, 6-20 years before PD diagnosis; 48%-43% had a PD or BSD family history, and 34 carried glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and Parkin (PRKN) mutations. The cohort was split into a subset of 213 BSD-PD patients, compared with 426 matched PD patients without BSDs, and a subset of 34 BSD-PD and 79 PD patients carrying GBA or PRKN mutations. Carriers of mutations absent in BSD-PD patients and of synuclein triplication were excluded. Structured clinical interviews and mood disorder questionnaires assessed BSDs. Linear mixed models evaluated the assessment scales over time. Thirteen BSD-PD patients underwent subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) and were compared with 27 matched STN-DBS-treated PD patients.ResultsCompared to PD patients, BSD-PD showed (1) higher frequency of family history of PD (odds ratio [OR] 3.31; 2.32-4.71) and BSDs (OR 6.20; 4.11-9.35) 5); (2) higher incidence of impulse control disorders (hazard ratio [HR] 5.95, 3.89-9.09); (3) higher frequency of functional disorders occurring before PD therapy (HR, 5.67, 3.95-8.15); (4) earlier occurrence of delusions or mild dementia (HR, 7.70, 5.55-10.69; HR, 1.43, 1.16-1.75); and (5) earlier mortality (1.48; 1.11-1.97). Genetic BSD-PD subjects exhibited clinical features indistinguishable from nongenetic BSD-PD subjects. STN-DBS-treated BSD-PD patients showed no improvements in quality of life compared to the control group.ConclusionsBSDs as a prodrome to PD unfavorably shape their course and are associated with detrimental neuropsychiatric features and treatment outcomes. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

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Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread.

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Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread.

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