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Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To assess the long-term impact of the increase in age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England in October 2007. METHODS:Data were collected between November 2006 and September 2018 on 252,601 participants taking part in a nationally representative survey of adults aged 16+ in England, the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS). We assessed the impact of the introduction of the increase in age-of-sale on prevalence of ever smoking, current smoking, and quit attempts, among 16-17?year olds compared with 18-24?year olds. RESULTS:Following the increase in age-of-sale, there was a declining trend in ever smoking that was greater among 16-17?year olds than 18-24?year olds (OR 0.990 versus OR 0.993; p?=?0.019). Data on current smoking were insensitive to detect a difference between the age groups in a step-level change or change in trend following the increase in age-of-sale (Bayes factors (BFs) 0.75 and 2.10). Data on quit attempts were also insensitive to detect a change in trend (BF 0.71), and despite a greater step-level decline among those aged 16-17 (OR 0.311 versus OR 0.547, p?=?0.025), quit attempts remained higher among those aged 16-17. Secondary analysis indicated that post-policy change, trends in current and ever smoking were linear for 16-17?year olds but quadratic for 18-24?year olds (slowing decline). CONCLUSION:There is some evidence from an assessment of long-term trends in the Smoking Toolkit Study that the increase in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes in England was associated with a greater long-term decline in ever smoking among those aged 16-17 compared with those aged 18-24.

SUBMITTER: Beard E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7140583 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis.

Beard Emma E Brown Jamie J Jackson Sarah S West Robert R Anderson Will W Arnott Deborah D Shahab Lion L

BMC medicine 20200408 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the long-term impact of the increase in age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England in October 2007.<h4>Methods</h4>Data were collected between November 2006 and September 2018 on 252,601 participants taking part in a nationally representative survey of adults aged 16+ in England, the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS). We assessed the impact of the introduction of the increase in age-of-sale on prevalence of ever smoking, current smoking, and quit attempts, among 16- ...[more]

PMID: 32264873

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Project description:ObjectiveTo determine whether there were inequalities in the sustained rise in infant mortality in England in recent years and the contribution of rising child poverty to these trends.DesignThis is an analysis of trends in infant mortality in local authorities grouped into five categories (quintiles) based on their level of income deprivation. Fixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the association between regional changes in child poverty and regional changes in infant mortality.Setting324 English local authorities in 9 English government office regions.ParticipantsLive-born children under 1 year of age.Main outcome measureInfant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths in children under 1 year of age per 100 000 live births in the same year.ResultsThe sustained and unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England from 2014 to 2017 was not experienced evenly across the population. In the most deprived local authorities, the previously declining trend in infant mortality reversed and mortality rose, leading to an additional 24 infant deaths per 100 000 live births per year (95% CI 6 to 42), relative to the previous trend. There was no significant change from the pre-existing trend in the most affluent local authorities. As a result, inequalities in infant mortality increased, with the gap between the most and the least deprived local authority areas widening by 52 deaths per 100 000 births (95% CI 36 to 68). Overall from 2014 to 2017, there were a total of 572 excess infant deaths (95% CI 200 to 944) compared with what would have been expected based on historical trends. We estimated that each 1% increase in child poverty was significantly associated with an extra 5.8 infant deaths per 100 000 live births (95% CI 2.4 to 9.2). The findings suggest that about a third of the increases in infant mortality between 2014 and 2017 can be attributed to rising child poverty (172 deaths, 95% CI 74 to 266).ConclusionThis study provides evidence that the unprecedented rise in infant mortality disproportionately affected the poorest areas of the country, leaving the more affluent areas unaffected. Our analysis also linked the recent increase in infant mortality in England with rising child poverty, suggesting that about a third of the increase in infant mortality from 2014 to 2017 may be attributed to rising child poverty.

Project description:ImportanceElectronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are less harmful to users than combustible cigarettes. However, public health and media reporting have often overstated the potential risks of e-cigarettes, and inaccurate perceptions of the harms of vaping relative to smoking are pervasive.ObjectiveTo examine time trends in harm perceptions of e-cigarettes compared with combustible cigarettes among adults who smoke.Design, setting, and participantsThis nationally representative monthly cross-sectional survey study was conducted from November 2014 to June 2023 in England. Participants were adults who currently smoke.Main outcomes and measuresParticipants were asked whether they thought e-cigarettes were less harmful, equally harmful, or more harmful than cigarettes, or did not know, with the proportion responding less harmful (vs all other responses) as the primary outcome. Logistic regression was used to test associations between survey wave and participants' perceptions of the harms of e-cigarettes.ResultsData were collected from 28 393 adults who smoke (mean [SD] age, 43.5 [17.3] years; 13 253 [46.7%] women). In November 2014, 44.4% (95% CI, 42.0%-46.8%) thought e-cigarettes were less harmful than cigarettes, 30.3% (95% CI, 28.2%-32.6%) thought e-cigarettes were equally harmful, 10.8% (95% CI, 9.4%-12.3%) thought they were more harmful, and 14.5% (95% CI, 12.9%-16.4%) did not know. However, by June 2023, the proportion who thought e-cigarettes were less harmful had decreased by 40% (prevalence ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.55-0.66), and the proportion who thought e-cigarettes were more harmful had more than doubled (prevalence ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.84-2.54). Changes over time were nonlinear: late 2019 saw a sharp decline in the proportion who thought e-cigarettes were less harmful and increases in the proportions who thought they were equally or more harmful. These changes were short-lived, returning to pre-2019 levels by the end of 2020. However, perceptions worsened again from 2021 up to the end of the study period: the proportion who thought e-cigarettes were more harmful increased to a new high, and the proportion who thought e-cigarettes were less harmful decreased to levels comparable to those in late 2019. As a result, in June 2023, the perception that e-cigarettes were equally as harmful as cigarettes was the most commonly held view among adults who smoke (33.7%; 95% CI, 31.4%-36.1%), with roughly similar proportions perceiving e-cigarettes to be less (26.7%; 95% CI, 24.6%-28.9%) and more (23.3%; 95% CI, 21.1%-25.7%) harmful.Conclusions and relevanceThis survey study of adults who smoke in England found that harm perceptions of e-cigarettes have worsened substantially over the last decade, such that most adults who smoked in 2023 believed e-cigarettes to be at least as harmful as cigarettes. The timing of the 2 most notable changes in harm perceptions coincided with the e-cigarette, or vaping product, use-associated lung injury outbreak in 2019 and the recent increase in youth vaping in England since 2021.

Dataset Information

Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis.

Publications

Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis.

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