Dataset Information

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.

SUBMITTER: Brooks-Pollock E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7141699 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.

Brooks-Pollock Ellen E Danon Leon L Korthals Altes Hester H Davidson Jennifer A JA Pollock Andrew M T AMT van Soolingen Dick D Campbell Colin C Lalor Maeve K MK

PLoS computational biology 20200327 3

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process ...[more]

PMID: 32218567

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe suppression of viremia among persons with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy has been hypothesized to reduce HIV incidence at the population level. We investigated the impact of state level viral suppression among PWH in the United States on estimated HIV incidence between 2010 and 2015.MethodsViral suppression data and HIV incidence estimates from the National HIV Surveillance System were available from 29 states and the District of Columbia. We assumed a one year delay for viral suppression to impact incidence. Poisson regression models were used to calculate the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) in incidence rate. We employed a multivariable mixed-effects Poisson regression model to assess the effects of state level race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, percent men who have sex with men (MSM) and hepatitis C virus prevalence as a proxy for injection drug use on HIV incidence.FindingsFitted HIV incidence for 30 jurisdictions declined from 11.5 in 2010 to 10.0 per 100,000 population by 2015 corresponding with an EAPC of -2.67 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] -2.95, -2.38). Southern states experienced the highest estimated incidence by far throughout this period but upon adjustment for viral suppression and demographics there was a 36% lower incidence rate than Northeast states (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.64; 95%CI 0.42, 0.99). For every 10 percentage point (pp) increase in viral suppression there was an adjusted 4% decline in HIV incidence rate in the subsequent year (aRR 0.96; 95%CI 0.93, 0.99). While controlling for viral suppression, HIV incidence rate increased by 42% (aRR 1.42 95%CI 1.31, 1.54) for every 5 pp increase in percent Black race and by 27% (aRR 1.27 95%CI 1.10, 1.48) for every 1 pp increase in percent MSM in states.InterpretationA decline in estimated HIV incidence from 2010 to 2015 was associated with increasing viral suppression in the United States. Race and sexual orientation were important HIV acquisition risk factors.

Dataset Information

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.

Publications

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets