Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kim S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7144981 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In a Perspective, Gavin Churchyard and Sue Swindells discuss the importance of strategies to target latent tuberculosis infection in high risk populations and thus disrupt a reservoir for new infections in high burden countries.
| S-EPMC6478264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInterferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) are used to diagnose latent tuberculosis infection. Two IGRAs are commercially available: the Quantiferon TB Gold In Tube (QFT-IT) and the T-SPOT.TB. There is debate as to which test to use in HIV+ individuals. Previous publications from high TB burden countries have raised concerns that the sensitivity of the QFT-IT assay, but not the T-SPOT.TB, may be impaired in HIV+ individuals with low CD4+ T-cell counts. We sought to compare the tests in a low TB burden setting.Methodology/principal findingsT-SPOT.TB, QFT-IT, and tuberculin skin tests (TST) were performed in HIV infected individuals. Results were related to patient characteristics. McNemar's test, multivariate regression and correlation analysis were carried out using SPSS (SPSS Inc). 256 HIV infected patients were enrolled in the study. The median CD4+ T-cell count was 338 cells/µL (range 1-1328). 37 (14%) patients had a CD4+ T-cell count of <100 cells/µL. 46/256 (18% ) of QFT-IT results and 28/256 (11%) of T-SPOT.TB results were positive. 6 (2%) of QFT-IT and 18 (7%) of T-SPOT.TB results were indeterminate. An additional 9 (4%) of T-SPOT.TB results were unavailable as tests were not performed due to insufficient cells or clotting of the sample. We found a statistically significant association between lower CD4+ T-cell count and negative QFT-IT results (OR 1.055, p=0.03), and indeterminate/unavailable T-SPOT.TB results (OR 1.079, p=0.02).Conclusions/significanceIn low TB prevalence settings, the QFT-IT yields more positive and fewer indeterminate results than T-SPOT.TB. Negative results on the QFT-IT and indeterminate/unavailable results on the T-SPOT.TB were more common in individuals with low CD4+ T-cell counts.
| S-EPMC3559731 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) control is considered primarily a public health concern, and private sector TB treatment has attracted less attention. Thus, the size and characteristics of private sector TB drug sales remain largely unknown.Methodology/principal findingsWe used IMS Health data to analyze private TB drug consumption in 10 high burden countries (HBCs), after first mapping how well IMS data coverage overlapped with private markets. We defined private markets as any channels not used or influenced by national TB programs. Private markets in four countries--Pakistan, the Philippines, Indonesia and India--had the largest relative sales volumes; annually, they sold enough first line TB drugs to provide 65-117% of the respective countries' estimated annual incident cases with a standard 6-8 month regimen. First line drug volumes in five countries were predominantly fixed dose combinations (FDCs), but predominantly loose drugs in the other five. Across 10 countries, these drugs were available in 37 (loose drug) plus 74 (FDCs) distinct strengths. There were 54 distinct, significant first line manufacturers (range 2-11 per country), and most companies sold TB drugs in only a single study country. FDC markets were, however, more concentrated, with 4 companies capturing 69% of FDC volume across the ten countries. Among second line drugs, fluoroquinolones were widely available, with significant volumes used for TB in India, Pakistan and Indonesia. However, certain WHO-recommended drugs were not available and in general there were insufficient drug volumes to cover the majority of the expected burden of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB).Conclusions/significancePrivate TB drug markets in several HBCs are substantial, stable, and complicated. This calls for appropriate policy and market responses, including expansion of Public-Private Mix (PPM) programs, greater reach, flexibility and appeal of public programs, regulatory and quality enforcement, and expansion of public MDR-TB treatment programs.
| S-EPMC3087727 | biostudies-literature
Project description:34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin's maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.Supplementary informationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07235-7.
| S-EPMC8801045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction: Childhood tuberculosis (TB) and undernutrition are major global public health challenges. In 2015, although an estimated 1 million children aged <15 years developed TB, the majority of the cases remain undiagnosed, partly due to a lack of awareness and capacity by providers who serve as the first point of care for sick children. This calls for better integration of TB with child health and nutrition services. TB can cause or worsen undernutrition, and undernutrition increases the risk of TB. Methods: Guidelines for the management of acute malnutrition from 17 high TB burden countries were reviewed to gather information on TB symptom screening, exposure history, and treatment. Results: Seven (41%) countries recommend routine TB screening among children with acute malnutrition, and six (35%) recommend obtaining a TB exposure history. Conclusion: TB screening is not consistently included in guidelines for acute malnutrition in high TB burden countries. Routine TB risk assessment, especially history of TB exposure, among acutely malnourished children, combined with improved linkages with TB services, would help increase TB case finding and could impact outcomes. Operational research on how best to integrate services at different levels of the health care system is needed.
| S-EPMC5493091 | biostudies-other
Project description:Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is revolutionary for diagnostics of TB and its mutations associated with drug-resistances, but its uptake in low- and middle-income countries is hindered by concerns of implementation feasibility. Here, we provide a proof of concept for its successful implementation in such a setting. WGS was implemented in the Kyrgyz Republic. We estimated needs of up to 55 TB-WGS per week and chose the MiSeq platform (Illumina, USA) because of its capacity of up to 60 TB-WGS per week. The project's timeline was completed in 93-weeks. Costs of large equipment and accompanying costs were 222,065 USD and 8462 USD, respectively. The first 174 WGS costed 277 USD per sequence, but this was skewed by training inefficiencies. Based on real prices and presuming optimal utilization of WGS capacities, WGS costs could drop to 167 and 141 USD per WGS using MiSeq Reagent Kits v2 (500-cycles) and v3 (600-cycles), respectively. Five trainings were required to prepare the staff for autonomous WGS which cost 48,250 USD. External assessment confirmed excellent performance of WGS by the Kyrgyz laboratory in an interlaboratory comparison of 30 M. tuberculosis genomes showing complete agreeance of results.
| S-EPMC8319420 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) research. Countries with the highest tuberculosis (TB) burden face important challenges to integrate WGS into surveillance and research. We assessed the global status of Mtb WGS and developed a 3-week training course coupled with long-term mentoring and WGS infrastructure building. Training focused on genome sequencing, bioinformatics and development of a locally relevant WGS research project. The aim of the long-term mentoring was to support trainees in project implementation and funding acquisition. The focus of WGS infrastructure building was on the DNA extraction process and bioinformatics. Compared to their TB burden, Asia and Africa are grossly underrepresented in Mtb WGS research. Challenges faced resulted in adaptations to the training, mentoring and infrastructure building. Out-of-date laptop hardware and operating systems were overcome by using online tools and a Galaxy WGS analysis pipeline. A case studies approach created a safe atmosphere for students to formulate and defend opinions. Because quality DNA extraction is paramount for WGS, a biosafety level 3 and general laboratory skill training session were added, use of commercial DNA extraction kits was introduced and a 2-week training in a highly equipped laboratory was combined with a 1-week training in the local setting. By developing and sharing the components of and experiences with a sequencing and bioinformatics training program, we hope to stimulate capacity building programs for Mtb WGS and empower high-burden countries to play an important role in WGS-based TB surveillance and research.
| S-EPMC8293823 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus is one of the major global health challenges of the twenty-first century. In high burden HIV/TB countries, the spread of COVID-19 among people living with HIV is a well-founded concern. A thorough understanding of HIV/TB and COVID-19 pandemics is important as the three diseases interact. This may clarify HIV/TB/COVID-19 as a newly related field. However, several gaps remain in the knowledge of the burden of COVID-19 on patients with TB and HIV. This study was conducted to review different studies on SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or COVID-19 associated with HIV/TB co-infection or only TB, to understand the interactions between HIV, TB and COVID-19 and its implications on the burden of the COVID-19 among HIV/TB co-infected or TB patients, screening algorithm and clinical management.MethodsWe conducted an electronic search of potentially eligible studies published in English in the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, PubMed, Medrxiv, Google scholar and Clinical Trials Registry databases. We included case studies, case series and observational studies published between January, 2002 and July, 2020 in which SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and COVID-19 co-infected to HIV/TB or TB in adults. We screened titles, abstracts and full articles for eligibility. Descriptive and meta-analysis were done and results have been presented in graphs and tables.ResultsAfter removing 95 duplicates, 58 out of 437 articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 14 studies were included for descriptive analysis and seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to the descriptive analysis, the meta-analysis showed strong evidence that current TB exposure was high-risk COVID-19 group (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.06-2.65, P = 0.03). The pooled of COVID-19/TB severity rate increased from OR 4.50 (95% CI 1.12-18.10, P = 0.03), the recovery rate was high among COVID-19 compared to COVID-19/TB irrespective of HIV status (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83-2.74, P < 0.001) and the mortality was reduced among non-TB group (P < 0.001).ConclusionIn summary, TB was a risk factor for COVID-19 both in terms of severity and mortality irrespective of HIV status. Structured diagnostic algorithms and clinical management are suggested to improve COVID-19/HIV/TB or COVID-19/TB co-infections outcomes.
| S-EPMC7545798 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAntiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries.MethodsWe compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects.ResultsModels suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates.ConclusionThis econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data.
| S-EPMC4990253 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIncreasing case notifications is one of the top programmatic priorities of National TB Control Programmes (NTPs). To find more cases, NTPs often need to consider expanding TB case-detection activities to populations with increasingly low prevalence of disease. Together with low-specificity diagnostic algorithms, these strategies can lead to an increasingly high number of false positive diagnoses, which has important adverse consequences.MethodsWe apply TIME, a widely-used country-level model, to quantify the expected impact of different case-finding strategies under two scenarios. In the first scenario, we compare the impact of implementing two different diagnostic algorithms (higher sensitivity only versus higher sensitivity and specificity) to reach programmatic screening targets. In the second scenario, we examine the impact of expanding coverage to a population with a lower prevalence of disease. Finally, we explore the implications of modelling without taking into consideration the screening of healthy individuals. Outcomes considered were changes in notifications, the ratio of additional false positive to true positive diagnoses, the positive predictive value (PPV), and incidence.ResultsIn scenario 1, algorithm A of prolonged cough and GeneXpert yielded fewer additional notifications compared to algorithm B of any symptom and smear microscopy (n = 4.0 K vs 13.8 K), relative to baseline between 2017 and 2025. However, algorithm A resulted in an increase in PPV, averting 2.4 K false positive notifications thus resulting in a more efficient impact on incidence. Scenario 2 demonstrated an absolute decrease of 11% in the PPV as intensified case finding activities expanded into low-prevalence populations without improving diagnostic accuracy, yielding an additional 23 K false positive diagnoses for an additional 1.3 K true positive diagnoses between 2017 and 2025. Modelling the second scenario without taking into account screening amongst healthy individuals overestimated the impact on cases averted by a factor of 6.ConclusionOur findings show that total notifications can be a misleading indicator for TB programme performance, and should be interpreted carefully. When evaluating potential case-finding strategies, NTPs should consider the specificity of diagnostic algorithms and the risk of increasing false-positive diagnoses. Similarly, modelling the impact of case-finding strategies without taking into account potential adverse consequences can overestimate impact and lead to poor strategic decision-making.
| S-EPMC6054844 | biostudies-literature