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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

ABSTRACT: Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

SUBMITTER: Chinazzi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7164386 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Chinazzi Matteo M Davis Jessica T JT Ajelli Marco M Gioannini Corrado C Litvinova Maria M Merler Stefano S Pastore Y Piontti Ana A Mu Kunpeng K Rossi Luca L Sun Kaiyuan K Viboud Cécile C Xiong Xinyue X Yu Hongjie H Halloran M Elizabeth ME Longini Ira M IM Vespignani Alessandro A

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20200306 6489

Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delaye ...[more]

PMID: 32144116

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Project description:BackgroundAn outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been ongoing in China since January 2020. The threat of infection affects the work and life of most of the population and may also damage sleep. This study aims to examine the subjective sleep status and mental health of the population during the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic.MethodThe data were collected through an online questionnaire with a sample of 5461 individuals in China from February 5, 2020, to February 23, 2020. Participants were divided into four groups based on their degree of threat from COVID-19: Group 1 was most closely associated with COVID-19, including inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19, first-line hospital workers and first-line management staff; Group 2 included outpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 and patients who developed a fever and visited the hospital; Group 3 included people related to Group 1 or 2, such as their colleagues, relatives, friends and rescuers; and Group 4 was the farthest removed from contact with COVID-19, covering the general public affected by COVID-19 prevention strategies. The Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) and Acute Stress Disorder Scale (ASDS) were used.ResultsThreat degree of COVID-19 (groups) had significant correlations with insomnia, depression, anxiety, and stress (p < 0.05, p < 0.01). Age, gender, and area (Hubei province or other provinces) had significant correlations with insomnia (p < 0.01). A total of 1380 (24.46%) participants were suspected of having major depression based on the PHQ-9. Additionally, 1042 (18.47%) participants were suspected of having generalized anxiety disorder based on the GAD-7. A total of 892 (15.8%) of the participants had Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) according to the ASDS. The prevalence of clinical insomnia during the outbreak was 20.05% (1131) according to the ISI. The factors of satisfaction with the current sleep pattern and how perceptible the symptoms of the current sleep pattern are to other people (p < 0.05) and the middle (difficulty staying asleep) and terminal (waking up too early) (p < 0.01) factors of the ISI were significantly different across groups. A total of 1129 (20.01%) participants spent more than one hour awake in bed.ConclusionThe results indicated that insomnia is more severe in people who are female, young, living in the epicenter and experiencing a high degree of threat from COVID-19. As prevention and treatment efforts continue with regard to COVID-19, the general public has developed poor sleep hygiene habits, which deserve attention.

Dataset Information

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Publications

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

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