Policies for Easing COVID-19 Pandemic Travel Restrictions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Le TM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8077591 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Policies for Easing COVID-19 Pandemic Travel Restrictions.
Le Thien-Minh TM Raynal Louis L Talbot Octavious O Hambridge Hali H Drovandi Christopher C Mira Antonietta A Mengersen Kerrie K Onnela Jukka-Pekka JP
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20210420
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented international travel restrictions that aimed to contain viral spread while still allowing necessary cross-border travel for social and economic reasons. The relative effectiveness of these approaches for controlling the pandemic has gone largely unstudied. Here we developed a flexible network meta-population model to compare the effectiveness of international travel policies, with a focus on evaluating the benefit of policy coordination. B ...[more]
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Project description:During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented international travel restrictions that aimed to contain viral spread while still allowing necessary cross-border travel for social and economic reasons. The relative effectiveness of these approaches for controlling the pandemic has gone largely unstudied. Here we developed a flexible network meta-population model to compare the effectiveness of international travel policies, with a focus on evaluating the benefit of policy coordination. Because country-level epidemiological parameters are unknown, they need to be estimated from data; we accomplished this using approximate Bayesian computation, given the nature of our complex stochastic disease transmission model. Based on simulation and theoretical insights we find that, under our proposed policy, international airline travel may resume up to 58% of the pre-pandemic level with pandemic control comparable to that of a complete shutdown of all airline travel. Our results demonstrate that global coordination is necessary to allow for maximum travel with minimum effect on viral spread.
| S-EPMC9049014 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceSocial restrictions intended to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may have also been associated with decreased rates of other communicable diseases. Evidence suggests that infection incidence rates (IRs) are rebounding after easing of social restrictions (eg, mask mandates). The reemergence of infectious disease complicates efforts to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveTo examine IRs of frequently occurring infectious diseases after a successful SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in Israel and cessation of social restrictions.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study was conducted using records for respiratory and gastrointestinal infectious diseases at 209 community clinics in southern Israel from 2017 to 2021. Included patients attended community clinics from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2021.ExposuresIncidence of infectious diseases was estimated in the first 3 months after the easing of social restrictions (ie, April-June 2021) across age groups.Main outcomes and measuresAge-specific and disease-specific weekly IRs per 100 000 population for April to June were compared between 2017 and 2021 and expected current IR was estimated using segmented linear regression. Growth rates of respiratory infections across years and weekly diagnoses detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction testing were also compared.ResultsAmong 386 711 patients with a total of 1 221 568 visits to community clinics, the mean (SD) age was 27.29 (23.93) years, and there were 202 494 (52.3%) male patients and 184 217 (47.7%) female patients. Children aged 0 to 3 years had significantly increased rates of respiratory and gastrointestinal infection diagnoses (IR ratio, 2.64; 95% CI, 2:30-2.91; P < .001). In addition, incidence of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections were significantly increased across age groups (IR ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.56-1.94; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThese morbidity trends observed in Israel suggest that similar trends could occur in coming months in other countries after easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, particularly with the ongoing challenges of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
| S-EPMC8808334 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 disease continues to cause unparalleled disruption to life and the economy world over. This paper is the second in what will be an ongoing series of analyses of a longitudinal travel and activity survey. In this paper we examine data collected over a period of late May to early June in Australia, following four-to-six weeks of relatively flat new cases in COVID-19 after the initial nationwide outbreak, as many state jurisdictions have begun to slowly ease restrictions designed to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We find that during this period, travel activity has started to slowly return, in particular by private car, and in particular for the purposes of shopping and social or recreational activities. Respondents indicate comfort with the idea of meeting friends or returning to shops, so authorities need to be aware of potential erosion of social distancing and appropriate COVID-safe behaviour in this regard. There is still a concern about using public transport, though it has diminished noticeably since the first wave of data collection. We see that working from home continues to be an important strategy in reducing travel and pressure on constrained transport networks, and a policy measure that if carried over to a post-pandemic world, will be an important step towards a more sustainable transport future. We find that work from home has been a generally positive experience with a significant number of respondents liking to work from home moving forward, with varying degrees of employer support, at a level above those seen before COVID-19. Thus, any investment to capitalise on current levels of work from home should be viewed as an investment in transport.
| S-EPMC7434414 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory pathogens among patients with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in Shijiazhuang, China, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (January 2021--December 2022) and after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictive measures (January 2022--December 2023). This retrospective study enrolled 6,633 ARIs patients who visited the Hebei General Hospital between 2021- and 2023. Nasopharyngeal swabs samples were collected for multiplex PCR detection of 13 common respiratory pathogens. Respiratory pathogens were detected in 31.58% of individuals diagnosed with ARIs, whileereas a co-infection with multiple pathogens was observed in 8.5% of the ARI patients. In the years 2021 and 2022, 326 (27.63%) and 283 (24.38%) respiratory pathogens were found to be positive, respectively, during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in 2023, subsequent to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, the positivity rate significantly rose to 34.62%, with 4,292 cases identified. The majority of positive cases over the last three3 years were concentrated in patients under 14 years old. The predominant pathogens identified were human rhinovirus (HRVs) (15.08%) in 2021, mycoplasma pneumonia (MP) (6.46%) in 2022, and influenza A virus (FluA) (11.35%) in 2023. Seasonal prevalence patterns of most pathogens were affected, except for parainfluenza virus (PIV). There was a simultaneous increase in the positive cases and positivity rates of FluA and adenovirus (ADV) Iin 2023, compared to 2021 and 2022. Additionally, the infection rates of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), MP, and coronavirus (CoV) in 2023 either exceeded or were comparable to those in 2021 and 2022. Conversely, the positivity rates of PIV, RVs, metapneumovirus (MPV), and influenza B virus (FluB) were lower in 2023 compared to 2021 or 2022.ImportanceThe implementation of strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may lead to changes in the epidemiological features of respiratory pathogens, as well as the occurrence of immune debt, potentially causing a resurgence in respiratory pathogen activity following the easing of strict NPIs measures. There are limited reports on the epidemiological characteristics of respiratory pathogens among patients of all ages with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic and after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. Our study investigated the epidemiology of 13 respiratory pathogens in Shijiazhuang, China, from January 2021 to December 2023. Thisese data isare crucial for the ongoing surveillance of epidemiological shifts in respiratory pathogens during and post the -COVID-19 pandemic, and serves as a scientific foundation for the prevention and management of ARIs.
| S-EPMC11537120 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of acute respiratory infection with the most severe disease in the young and elderly. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and travel restrictions for controlling COVID-19 have impacted the circulation of most respiratory viruses including RSV globally, particularly in Australia, where during 2020 the normal winter epidemics were notably absent. However, in late 2020, unprecedented widespread RSV outbreaks occurred, beginning in spring, and extending into summer across two widely separated regions of the Australian continent, New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) in the east, and Western Australia. Through genomic sequencing we reveal a major reduction in RSV genetic diversity following COVID-19 emergence with two genetically distinct RSV-A clades circulating cryptically, likely localised for several months prior to an epidemic surge in cases upon relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. The NSW/ACT clade subsequently spread to the neighbouring state of Victoria and to cause extensive outbreaks and hospitalisations in early 2021. These findings highlight the need for continued surveillance and sequencing of RSV and other respiratory viruses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as mitigation measures may disrupt seasonal patterns, causing larger or more severe outbreaks.
| S-EPMC9130497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79-116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.
| S-EPMC8099556 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although COVID-19 lockdown policies have improved air quality in numerous countries, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the extent to which recovery has resulted in air pollution rebound, and the differences and similarities among regions' recovery modes during the period of easing COVID-19 restrictions. Here, we used daily air quality data and the recovery index constructed by a city-pair inflow index for 119 cities in China to quantify the impact of recovery on air pollution from March 2 to October 30, 2020. Findings show that recovery has significantly increased air pollution. When the recovery level increased by 10 %, the concentration of PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 respectively deteriorated by 1.10, 0.33, 1.25 μg/m3, and the average growth rates of three air pollutants were about 3 %-6 %. Moreover, we used the counterfactual framework and time series clustering with wavelet transform to cluster the rebound trajectory of air pollution for 17 provinces into five recovery modes. Results show that COVID-19 has further intensified regional differentiations in economic development ability and green recovery trend. Three northwestern provinces dependent on their resource endowments belong to energy-intensive recovery mode, which have experienced a sharp rebound of air pollution for two months, thereby making green recovery more challenging to achieve. Three regions with a diversified industrial structure are in industrial-restructuring recovery mode, which has effectively returned to a normal level through adjusting industrial structure and technological innovation. Owing to local policies and the outbreak of COVID-19 in other countries, six provinces in policy-oriented and international trade-oriented recovery modes have not fully recovered to the level without COVID-19 until October 2020. The result highlights the importance of diversifying industrial structure, technological innovation, policy flexibility and industrial upgrading for different recovery modes to achieve long-term green recovery in the future.
| S-EPMC9222490 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo map travel policies implemented due to COVID-19 during 2020, and conduct a mixed-methods systematic review of health effects of such policies, and related contextual factors.DesignPolicy mapping and systematic review. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: for the policy mapping, we searched websites of relevant government bodies and used data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for a convenient sample of 31 countries across different regions. For the systematic review, we searched Medline (Ovid), PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and COVID-19 specific databases. We included randomized controlled trial, non-randomized studies, modeling studies, and qualitative studies. Two independent reviewers selected studies, abstracted data and assessed risk of bias.ResultsMost countries adopted a total border closure at the start of the pandemic. For the remainder of the year, partial border closure banning arrivals from some countries or regions was the most widely adopted measure, followed by mandatory quarantine and screening of travelers. The systematic search identified 69 eligible studies, including 50 modeling studies. Both observational and modeling evidence suggest that border closure may reduce the number of COVID-19 cases, disease spread across countries and between regions, and slow the progression of the outbreak. These effects are likely to be enhanced when implemented early, and when combined with measures reducing transmission rates in the community. Quarantine of travelers may decrease the number of COVID-19 cases but its effectiveness depends on compliance and enforcement and is more effective if followed by testing, especially when less than 14 day-quarantine is considered. Screening at departure and/or arrival is unlikely to detect a large proportion of cases or to delay an outbreak. Effectiveness of screening may be improved with increased sensitivity of screening tests, awareness of travelers, asymptomatic screening, and exit screening at country source. While four studies on contextual evidence found that the majority of the public is supportive of travel restrictions, they uncovered concerns about the unintended harms of those policies.ConclusionMost countries adopted full or partial border closure in response to COVID-19 in 2020. Evidence suggests positive effects on controlling the COVID-19 pandemic for border closure (particularly when implemented early), as well as quarantine of travelers (particularly with higher levels of compliance). While these positive effects are enhanced when implemented in combination with other public health measures, they are associated with concerns by the public regarding some unintended effects.
| S-EPMC8310423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveWe aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak.DesignA data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios.SettingWorldwide.InterventionsTravel restrictions and public health countermeasures.Main outcomeThe cumulative number of COVID-19 cases.ResultsThe cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all.ConclusionsPublic health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.
| S-EPMC8149266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesEvaluate the effect of easing "shelter-in-place" restrictions and coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) cases on orthopaedic trauma encounters (OTEs) at a community level II trauma center.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted of OTEs from March-June of 2016 to 2020. Injuries were classified by high or low severity. Admission and surgical intervention rates were also compared year to year. Data were statistically analyzed and compared with external data for traffic counts near the hospital and COVID-19 cases in Michigan as well as a timeline for enacting and easing of shelter-in-place orders in the state of Michigan.ResultsThere was no difference in the number of OTEs May to June, 2020 compared with the average of those same months 2016 to 2019. March to June, 2020 showed no change in proportion of injury severity, admissions, or surgical interventions when compared with the average of March-June, 2016 to 2019, although the overall quantity of each was decreased in March and April. A significant negative correlation was found between the daily number of COVID-19 cases in Michigan and OTEs.ConclusionsThe quantity of OTEs normalized to pre-COVID-19 levels in May and June of 2020 compared with 2016 to 2019 despite a previously documented 45.1% drop in March and April. A negative correlation was noted between the number of reported Michigan COVID-19 cases and volume of OTEs. There were no significant changes noted to admission rates or rates of surgical intervention on OTEs throughout the time period studied.
| S-EPMC8568387 | biostudies-literature