Universal weekly testing as the UK COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Peto J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7172826 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Universal weekly testing as the UK COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy.
Peto Julian J Alwan Nisreen A NA Godfrey Keith M KM Burgess Rochelle A RA Hunter David J DJ Riboli Elio E Romer Paul P
Lancet (London, England) 20200421 10234
Similar Datasets
Project description:After the national lockdown imposed on March 11, 2020, the Italian government has gradually resumed the suspended economic and social activities since May 4, while maintaining the closure of schools until September 14. We use a model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission to estimate the health impact of different exit strategies. The strategy adopted in Italy kept the reproduction number Rt at values close to one until the end of September, with marginal regional differences. Based on the estimated postlockdown transmissibility, reopening of workplaces in selected industrial activities might have had a minor impact on the transmissibility. Reopening educational levels in May up to secondary schools might have influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility only marginally; however, including high schools might have resulted in a marked increase of the disease burden. Earlier reopening would have resulted in disproportionately higher hospitalization incidence. Given community contacts in September, we project a large second wave associated with school reopening in the fall.
| S-EPMC7848712 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As of mid-2020, eradicating COVID-19 seems not to be an option, at least in the short term. The challenge for policy makers consists of implementing a suitable approach to contain the outbreak and limit extra deaths without exhausting healthcare forces while mitigating the impact on the country's economy and on individuals' well-being. To better describe the trade-off between the economic, societal and public health dimensions, we developed an integrated bioeconomic optimization approach. We built a discrete age-structured model considering three main populations (youth, adults and seniors) and 8 socio-professional characteristics for the adults. Fifteen lockdown exit strategies were simulated for several options: abrupt or progressive (4 or 8 weeks) lockdown lift followed by total definitive transitory final unlocking. Three values of transmission rate (Tr) were considered to represent individuals' barrier gesture compliance. Optimization under constraint to find the best combination of scenarios and options was performed on the minimal total cost for production losses due to contracted activities and hospitalization in the short and mid-term, with 3 criteria: mortality, person-days locked and hospital saturation. The results clearly show little difference between the scenarios based on the economic impact or the 3 criteria. This means that policy makers should focus on individuals' behaviors (represented by the Tr value) more than on trying to optimize the lockdown strategy (defining who is unlocked and who is locked). For a given Tr, the choices of scenarios permit the management of the hospital saturation level with regard to both its intensity and its duration, which remains a key point for public health. The results highlight the need for behavioral or experimental economics to address COVID-19 issues through a better understanding of individual behavior motivations and the identification of ways to improve biosecurity compliance.
| S-EPMC7705347 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.
| S-EPMC7871360 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning.MethodsWe use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures.FindingsAt baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective.InterpretationGradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere.FundingSingapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
| S-EPMC7395828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak from the SARS-CoV-2 virus has shocking us with its fast transmission and deadly complication. Due to that, the movement restriction has been enforced to contain this pandemic. Recently, there is an increasing pressure to restart and resurrect social and economic sectors, and to allow people to get back to work. This must be well planned before the movement restriction is lifted. Because of that, this paper aims to review and make recommendations on the new normal for our daily activities and works. Firstly, the social and economic sectors must be opening in phases by emphasizing safety and health than an economic recovery. In the meantime, the WHO recommendations on social distancing and personal hygiene must be adapted and become a new normal. Because of that, the government and local authorities should develop a soft landing approach based on the WHO recommendations. Next, the community must be engaged and empowered to do their parts in preventing the spread of COVID-19. From the new normal recommendations, the people can continue their daily routines, and at the same time can reduce COVID-19 transmission. However, medical possibilities are not considered while compiling these new normals and procedures. The population must adapt and embrace the new normal to control, reduce and prevent the spreading of COVID-19, as it could be with us for a long time.
| S-EPMC7529589 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths steadily decreased. This fact, together with the impossibility of maintaining the lockdown indefinitely, raises the crucial question of whether it is possible to design an exit strategy based on quantitative analysis. Guided by rigorous mathematical results, we show that this is indeed possible: we present a robust numerical algorithm which can compute the cumulative number of deaths that will occur as a result of increasing the number of contacts by a given multiple, using as input only the most reliable of all data available during the lockdown, namely the cumulative number of deaths.
| S-EPMC7444939 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As the world edges towards relaxing the lockdown measures taken to control the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), governments have started putting in place a variety of measures to avoid a second peak in the number of infections. The implementation of and adherence to such measures will be key components of any successful lockdown exit strategy. Ranging from expanded testing and widespread use of technology to building the public's trust in the post COVID-19 world, there is a role for pharmacists to play. In this commentary, these measures and the potential contribution of pharmacists to their successful implementation are outlined and discussed.
| S-EPMC7219380 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the first month of 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus spreading quickly via human-to-human transmission, caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Italy installed a successful nationwide lockdown to mitigate the exponential increase of case numbers, as the basic reproduction number R0 reached 1 within 4 weeks. But is R0 really the relevant criterion as to whether or not community spreading is under control? In most parts of the world, testing largely focused on symptomatic cases, and we thus hypothesized that the true number of infected cases and relative testing capacity are better determinants to guide lockdown exit strategies. We employed the SEIR model to estimate the numbers of undocumented cases. As expected, the estimated numbers of all cases largely exceeded the reported ones in all Italian regions. Next, we used the numbers of reported and estimated cases per million of population and compared it with the respective numbers of tests. In Lombardy, as the most affected region, testing capacity per reported new case seemed between two and eight most of the time, but testing capacity per estimated new cases never reached four up to April 30. In contrast, Veneto's testing capacity per reported and estimated new cases were much less discrepant and were between four and 16 most of the time. As per April 30 also Marche, Lazio and other Italian regions arrived close to 16 ratio of test capacity per new estimated infection. Thus, the criterion to exit a lockdown should be decided at the level of the regions, based on the local testing capacity that should reach 16 times the estimated true number of newly infected cases as predicted.
| S-EPMC7931856 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In March 2020, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK Government imposed social and physical distancing measures on the population. These lockdown measures caused significant changes to all aspects of daily life. The current study examined how the passage of time was distorted during the lockdown period. Using an online questionnaire, day and week passage of time judgments were collected. In addition, measures of affect, task load and satisfaction with current levels of social interaction were taken. The results show that over 80% of participants experienced distortion to the passage of time during lockdown in comparison with normal. The passage of time during the day was predicted by age, stress, task load and satisfaction with current levels of social interaction. A slowing of the passage of time was associated with increasing age, increasing stress, reduced task load and reduced satisfaction with current levels of social interaction. Only age and satisfaction with current levels of social interaction predicted passage of time across a week. Again, increasing age and reduced satisfaction with levels of social interaction were associated with a slowing of the passage of time. These findings demonstrate that significant changes to daily life have a significant impact on our experience of time, with younger, more socially satisfied people more likely to experience time as passing more quickly during the lockdown.
| S-EPMC7337311 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7330565 | biostudies-literature