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COVID-19 exit strategy: Transitioning towards a new normal.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 outbreak from the SARS-CoV-2 virus has shocking us with its fast transmission and deadly complication. Due to that, the movement restriction has been enforced to contain this pandemic. Recently, there is an increasing pressure to restart and resurrect social and economic sectors, and to allow people to get back to work. This must be well planned before the movement restriction is lifted. Because of that, this paper aims to review and make recommendations on the new normal for our daily activities and works. Firstly, the social and economic sectors must be opening in phases by emphasizing safety and health than an economic recovery. In the meantime, the WHO recommendations on social distancing and personal hygiene must be adapted and become a new normal. Because of that, the government and local authorities should develop a soft landing approach based on the WHO recommendations. Next, the community must be engaged and empowered to do their parts in preventing the spread of COVID-19. From the new normal recommendations, the people can continue their daily routines, and at the same time can reduce COVID-19 transmission. However, medical possibilities are not considered while compiling these new normals and procedures. The population must adapt and embrace the new normal to control, reduce and prevent the spreading of COVID-19, as it could be with us for a long time.

SUBMITTER: Jamaludin S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7529589 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 exit strategy: Transitioning towards a new normal.

Jamaludin Shahrizan S Azmir Nor Azali NA Mohamad Ayob Ahmad Faisal AF Zainal Nasharuddin N

Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) 20201002

The COVID-19 outbreak from the SARS-CoV-2 virus has shocking us with its fast transmission and deadly complication. Due to that, the movement restriction has been enforced to contain this pandemic. Recently, there is an increasing pressure to restart and resurrect social and economic sectors, and to allow people to get back to work. This must be well planned before the movement restriction is lifted. Because of that, this paper aims to review and make recommendations on the new normal for our da ...[more]

PMID: 33024558

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Project description:BackgroundCountries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic. We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment, and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate (CTTI) strategy.MethodsWe develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination. We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province, China, from September 10 to October 9, 2021, and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province, China for the period from March 1 to April 1, 2022. Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/ Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC).ResultsCalibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30 (95% confidence interval CI: 28-33) days, after 10 (95% CI: 9-11) rounds of citywide testing. The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50 (95% CI: 41-57) days if supported with sufficient public health resources and population compliance, which shows the effectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy.ConclusionsThe CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks. Nonetheless, the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging, which requires routine monitoring for early detection, adequate testing capacity, efficient contact tracing, and high isolation compliance, which constrain its benefits in regions with limited resources. Moreover, these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Hence, in regions where CTTI is not possible, personal protection, public health control measures, and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Project description:Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

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COVID-19 exit strategy: Transitioning towards a new normal.

Publications

COVID-19 exit strategy: Transitioning towards a new normal.

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