Unknown

Dataset Information

0

Stochastic modeling of influenza spread dynamics with recurrences.


ABSTRACT: We present results of a study of a simple, stochastic, agent-based model of influenza A infection, simulating its dynamics over the course of one flu season. Building on an early work of Bartlett, we define a model with a limited number of parameters and rates that have clear epidemiological interpretation and can be constrained by data. We demonstrate the occurrence of recurrent behavior in the infected number [more than one peak in a season], which is observed in data, in our simulations for populations consisting of cohorts with strong intra- and weak inter-cohort transmissibility. We examine the dependence of the results on epidemiological and population characteristics by investigating their dependence on a range of parameter values. Finally, we study infection with two strains of influenza, inspired by observations, and show a counter-intuitive result for the effect of inoculation against the strain that leads to the first wave of infection.

SUBMITTER: Whitman J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7173783 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

altmetric image

Publications

Stochastic modeling of influenza spread dynamics with recurrences.

Whitman John J   Jayaprakash Ciriyam C  

PloS one 20200421 4


We present results of a study of a simple, stochastic, agent-based model of influenza A infection, simulating its dynamics over the course of one flu season. Building on an early work of Bartlett, we define a model with a limited number of parameters and rates that have clear epidemiological interpretation and can be constrained by data. We demonstrate the occurrence of recurrent behavior in the infected number [more than one peak in a season], which is observed in data, in our simulations for p  ...[more]

Similar Datasets

| S-EPMC2998048 | biostudies-other
| S-EPMC6329989 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC4136116 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC2605827 | biostudies-other
| S-EPMC3973672 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC3098004 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC1779816 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC4592071 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC8390834 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC7755180 | biostudies-literature