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Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

ABSTRACT: The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.

SUBMITTER: McMillon D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3973672 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

McMillon David D Simon Carl P CP Morenoff Jeffrey J

PloS one 20140402 4

The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these mode ...[more]

PMID: 24694545

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