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OutPredict: multiple datasets can improve prediction of expression and inference of causality.

ABSTRACT: The ability to accurately predict the causal relationships from transcription factors to genes would greatly enhance our understanding of transcriptional dynamics. This could lead to applications in which one or more transcription factors could be manipulated to effect a change in genes leading to the enhancement of some desired trait. Here we present a method called OutPredict that constructs a model for each gene based on time series (and other) data and that predicts gene's expression in a previously unseen subsequent time point. The model also infers causal relationships based on the most important transcription factors for each gene model, some of which have been validated from previous physical experiments. The method benefits from known network edges and steady-state data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our results across B. subtilis, Arabidopsis, E.coli, Drosophila and the DREAM4 simulated in silico dataset show improved predictive accuracy ranging from 40% to 60% over other state-of-the-art methods. We find that gene expression models can benefit from the addition of steady-state data to predict expression values of time series. Finally, we validate, based on limited available data, that the influential edges we infer correspond to known relationships significantly more than expected by chance or by state-of-the-art methods.

SUBMITTER: Cirrone J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7176633 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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OutPredict: multiple datasets can improve prediction of expression and inference of causality.

Cirrone Jacopo J Brooks Matthew D MD Bonneau Richard R Coruzzi Gloria M GM Shasha Dennis E DE

Scientific reports 20200422 1

The ability to accurately predict the causal relationships from transcription factors to genes would greatly enhance our understanding of transcriptional dynamics. This could lead to applications in which one or more transcription factors could be manipulated to effect a change in genes leading to the enhancement of some desired trait. Here we present a method called OutPredict that constructs a model for each gene based on time series (and other) data and that predicts gene's expression in a pr ...[more]

PMID: 32321967

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Project description:Independently derived expression profiles of the same biological condition often have few genes in common. In this study, we created populations of expression profiles from publicly available microarray datasets of cancer (breast, lymphoma and renal) samples linked to clinical information with an iterative machine learning algorithm. ROC curves were used to assess the prediction error of each profile for classification. We compared the prediction error of profiles correlated with molecular phenotype against profiles correlated with relapse-free status. Prediction error of profiles identified with supervised univariate feature selection algorithms were compared to profiles selected randomly from a) all genes on the microarray platform and b) a list of known disease-related genes (a priori selection). We also determined the relevance of expression profiles on test arrays from independent datasets, measured on either the same or different microarray platforms.Highly discriminative expression profiles were produced on both simulated gene expression data and expression data from breast cancer and lymphoma datasets on the basis of ER and BCL-6 expression, respectively. Use of relapse-free status to identify profiles for prognosis prediction resulted in poorly discriminative decision rules. Supervised feature selection resulted in more accurate classifications than random or a priori selection, however, the difference in prediction error decreased as the number of features increased. These results held when decision rules were applied across-datasets to samples profiled on the same microarray platform.Our results show that many gene sets predict molecular phenotypes accurately. Given this, expression profiles identified using different training datasets should be expected to show little agreement. In addition, we demonstrate the difficulty in predicting relapse directly from microarray data using supervised machine learning approaches. These findings are relevant to the use of molecular profiling for the identification of candidate biomarker panels.

Project description:Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (?25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a high-performance programming language designed for facile technical computing. Our software package, CauseMap, is platform-independent and freely available as an official Julia package. Conclusions. CauseMap is an efficient implementation of a state-of-the-art algorithm for detecting causality from time series data. We believe this tool will be a valuable resource for biomedical research and personalized medicine.

Dataset Information

OutPredict: multiple datasets can improve prediction of expression and inference of causality.

Publications

OutPredict: multiple datasets can improve prediction of expression and inference of causality.

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