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A modern method of multiple working hypotheses to improve inference in ecology.

ABSTRACT: Science provides a method to learn about the relationships between observed patterns and the processes that generate them. However, inference can be confounded when an observed pattern cannot be clearly and wholly attributed to a hypothesized process. Over-reliance on traditional single-hypothesis methods (i.e. null hypothesis significance testing) has resulted in replication crises in several disciplines, and ecology exhibits features common to these fields (e.g. low-power study designs, questionable research practices, etc.). Considering multiple working hypotheses in combination with pre-data collection modelling can be an effective means to mitigate many of these problems. We present a framework for explicitly modelling systems in which relevant processes are commonly omitted, overlooked or not considered and provide a formal workflow for a pre-data collection analysis of multiple candidate hypotheses. We advocate for and suggest ways that pre-data collection modelling can be combined with consideration of multiple working hypotheses to improve the efficiency and accuracy of research in ecology.

SUBMITTER: Yanco SW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7353960 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A modern method of multiple working hypotheses to improve inference in ecology.

Yanco Scott W SW McDevitt Andrew A Trueman Clive N CN Hartley Laurel L Wunder Michael B MB

Royal Society open science 20200603 6

Science provides a method to learn about the relationships between observed patterns and the processes that generate them. However, inference can be confounded when an observed pattern cannot be clearly and wholly attributed to a hypothesized process. Over-reliance on traditional single-hypothesis methods (i.e. null hypothesis significance testing) has resulted in replication crises in several disciplines, and ecology exhibits features common to these fields (e.g. low-power study designs, questi ...[more]

PMID: 32742690

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Project description:The efficient and effective monitoring of individuals and populations is critically dependent on correct species identification. While this point may seem obvious, identifying the majority of the more than 100 natural enemies involved in the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana--SBW) food web remains a non-trivial endeavor. Insect parasitoids play a major role in the processes governing the population dynamics of SBW throughout eastern North America. However, these species are at the leading edge of the taxonomic impediment and integrating standardized identification capacity into existing field programs would provide clear benefits. We asked to what extent DNA barcoding the SBW food web would alter our understanding of the diversity and connectence of the food web and the frequency of generalists vs. specialists in different forest habitats. We DNA barcoded over 10% of the insects collected from the SBW food web in three New Brunswick forest plots from 1983 to 1993. For 30% of these specimens, we amplified at least one additional nuclear region. When the nodes of the food web were estimated based on barcode divergences (using molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTU) or phylogenetic diversity (PD)--the food web became much more diverse and connectence was reduced. We tested one measure of food web structure (the "bird feeder effect") and found no difference compared to the morphologically based predictions. Many, but not all, of the presumably polyphagous parasitoids now appear to be morphologically-cryptic host-specialists. To our knowledge, this project is the first to barcode a food web in which interactions have already been well-documented and described in space, time and abundance. It is poised to be a system in which field-based methods permit the identification capacity required by forestry scientists. Food web barcoding provided an effective tool for the accurate identification of all species involved in the cascading effects of future budworm outbreaks. Integrating standardized barcodes within food webs may ultimately change the face of community ecology. This will be most poignantly felt in food webs that have not yet been quantified. Here, more accurate and precise connections will be within the grasp of any researcher for the first time.

Dataset Information

A modern method of multiple working hypotheses to improve inference in ecology.

Publications

A modern method of multiple working hypotheses to improve inference in ecology.

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