Dataset Information

Validation and Assessment of the COPD Treatment Ratio as a Predictor of Severe Exacerbations.

ABSTRACT: Background:Population-based risk assessments are needed to identify individuals who may benefit from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) management programs for preventing exacerbations. This study compared the validated COPD treatment ratio (CTR) versus other COPD exacerbation predictors: prior exacerbation and rescue and maintenance medication use. Methods:A retrospective observational study using medical and pharmacy claims data among Medicare Advantage with Part D beneficiaries with COPD (January 2011-August 2016). Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models tested the predictive performance (C-statistic) of potential exacerbation predictors for future severe exacerbations. Results:The unadjusted association between exacerbation predictors and severe exacerbation was examined in 60,776 patients: baseline severe exacerbation had the highest C-statistic (0.668), then number of rescue units dispensed (0.651), CTR (0.619), and number of controller units dispensed (0.562). During the at-risk period, baseline CTR was inversely associated with severe exacerbation (odds ratio, <1.0); other predictors were positively associated with a severe exacerbation (odds ratio, >1.0). Adjusting for age, geographic region, chronic oxygen, and nebulizer use, the severe exacerbation odds were 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-0.91) lower per 0.10 change in CTR (C-statistic, 0.710). The C-statistic was 0.734 when baseline exacerbation was added to the model. Conclusions:The CTR is an effective tool for identifying patients diagnosed with COPD who are at increased risk of severe exacerbation. Although CTR does not predict future exacerbation as well as prior severe exacerbation history, it has the advantage of being applicable in predicting future exacerbations in patients without an exacerbation history, or in databases limited to pharmacy claims only. In addition, the significant reduction in risk has been observed with incremental increases in the ratio: the ratio can be monitored to assess COPD health improvements over time.

SUBMITTER: Stanford RH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7182384 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation and Assessment of the COPD Treatment Ratio as a Predictor of Severe Exacerbations.

Stanford Richard H RH Korrer Stephanie S Brekke Lee L Reinsch Tyler T Bengtson Lindsay G S LGS

Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) 20200101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Population-based risk assessments are needed to identify individuals who may benefit from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) management programs for preventing exacerbations. This study compared the validated COPD treatment ratio (CTR) versus other COPD exacerbation predictors: prior exacerbation and rescue and maintenance medication use.<h4>Methods</h4>A retrospective observational study using medical and pharmacy claims data among Medicare Advantage with Part D ben ...[more]

PMID: 31999901

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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a practicable nomogram aimed at predicting the risk of severe exacerbations in COPD patients at three and five years.MethodsCOPD patients with prospective follow-up data were extracted from Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) obtained from National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. We comprehensively considered the demographic characteristics, clinical data and inflammation marker of disease severity. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to identify the best combination of predictors on the basis of the smallest Akaike Information Criterion. A nomogram was developed and evaluated on discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis, respectively. Internal validation of the nomogram was assessed by the calibration plot with 1000 bootstrapped resamples.ResultsAmong 1711 COPD patients, 523 (30.6%) suffered from at least one severe exacerbation during follow-up. After stepwise regression analysis, six variables were determined including BMI, severe exacerbations in the prior year, comorbidity index, post-bronchodilator FEV1% predicted, and white blood cells. Nomogram to estimate patients' likelihood of severe exacerbations at three and five years was established. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.71-0.76), outperforming ADO, BODE and DOSE risk score. Besides, the calibration plot of three and five years showed great agreement between nomogram predicted possibility and actual risk. Decision curve analysis indicated that implementation of the nomogram in clinical practice would be beneficial and better than aforementioned risk scores.ConclusionOur new nomogram was a useful tool to assess the probability of severe exacerbations at three and five years for COPD patients and could facilitate clinicians in stratifying patients and providing optimal therapies.

Project description:Early treatment response markers, for example, improvement in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, may help clinicians to better manage patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We investigated the prevalence of clinically important improvements in FEV1 and SGRQ scores after 2-month budesonide/formoterol or formoterol treatment and whether such improvements predict subsequent improvements and exacerbation rates.This post hoc analysis is based on data from three double-blind, randomized studies in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD receiving twice-daily budesonide/formoterol or formoterol alone for 6 or 12 months. Prebronchodilator FEV1 and SGRQ total score were measured before treatment and at 2 and 12 months; COPD exacerbation rates were measured during months 2-12. Responders were defined by ?100 mL improvement in prebronchodilator FEV1 and ?4-point decrease in SGRQ total score.Overall, 2,331 and 1,799 patients were included in the 0-2- and 0-12-month responder analyses, respectively, and 2,360 patients in the 2-12-month exacerbation rate analysis. At 2 months, 35.1% of patients were FEV1 responders and 44.3% were SGRQ responders. The probability of response was significantly greater with budesonide/formoterol than with formoterol or placebo for both parameters. Two-month responders had a greater chance of 12-month response than 2-month nonresponders for both FEV1 (odds ratio, 5.57; 95% confidence interval, 4.14-7.50) and SGRQ (odds ratio, 3.87; 95% confidence interval, 2.83-5.31). Two-month response in FEV1 (P<0.001), but not SGRQ (P=0.11), was associated with greater reductions in exacerbation risk.Early FEV1 and SGRQ treatment responses relate to their changes at 12 months. FEV1 response, but not SGRQ response, at 2 months predicts the risk of a future COPD exacerbation in some, but not all patients. This is potentially useful in clinical practice, although more sensitive and specific markers of favorable treatment response are required.

Project description:BackgroundFibrinogen is the first qualified prognostic/predictive biomarker for exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The IMPACT trial investigated fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) triple therapy versus FF/VI and UMEC/VI in patients with symptomatic COPD at risk of exacerbations. This analysis used IMPACT trial data to examine the relationship between fibrinogen levels and exacerbation outcomes in patients with COPD.Methods8094 patients with a fibrinogen assessment at Week 16 were included, baseline fibrinogen data were not measured. Post hoc analyses were performed by fibrinogen quartiles and by 3.5 g/L threshold. Endpoints included on-treatment exacerbations and adverse events of special interest (AESIs).ResultsRates of moderate, moderate/severe, and severe exacerbations were higher in the highest versus lowest fibrinogen quartile (0.75, 0.92 and 0.15 vs 0.67, 0.79 and 0.10, respectively). The rate ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) for exacerbations in patients with fibrinogen levels ≥ 3.5 g/L versus those with fibrinogen levels < 3.5 g/L were 1.03 (0.95, 1.11) for moderate exacerbations, 1.08 (1.00, 1.15) for moderate/severe exacerbations, and 1.30 (1.10, 1.54) for severe exacerbations. There was an increased risk of moderate/severe exacerbation (hazard ratio [95% CI]: highest vs lowest quartile 1.16 [1.04, 1.228]; ≥ 3.5 g/L vs < 3.5 g/L: 1.09 [1.00, 1.16]) and severe exacerbation (1.35 [1.09, 1.69]; 1.27 [1.08, 1.47], respectively) with increasing fibrinogen level. Cardiovascular AESIs were highest in patients in the highest fibrinogen quartile.ConclusionsRate and risk of exacerbations was higher in patients with higher fibrinogen levels. This supports the validity of fibrinogen as a predictive biomarker for COPD exacerbations, and highlights the potential use of fibrinogen as an enrichment strategy in trials examining exacerbation outcomes.Trial registrationNCT02164513.

Project description:Retrospective studies have shown that statins decrease the rate and severity of exacerbations, the rate of hospitalization, and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We prospectively studied the efficacy of simvastatin in preventing exacerbations in a large, multicenter, randomized trial.We designed the Prospective Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Simvastatin in the Prevention of COPD Exacerbations (STATCOPE) as a randomized, controlled trial of simvastatin (at a daily dose of 40 mg) versus placebo, with annual exacerbation rates as the primary outcome. Patients were eligible if they were 40 to 80 years of age, had COPD (defined by a forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] of less than 80% and a ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity of less than 70%), and had a smoking history of 10 or more pack-years, were receiving supplemental oxygen or treatment with glucocorticoids or antibiotic agents, or had had an emergency department visit or hospitalization for COPD within the past year. Patients with diabetes or cardiovascular disease and those who were taking statins or who required statins on the basis of Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were excluded. Participants were treated from 12 to 36 months at 45 centers.A total of 885 participants with COPD were enrolled for approximately 641 days; 44% of the patients were women. The patients had a mean (±SD) age of 62.2±8.4 years, an FEV1 that was 41.6±17.7% of the predicted value, and a smoking history of 50.6±27.4 pack-years. At the time of study closeout, the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were lower in the simvastatin-treated patients than in those who received placebo. The mean number of exacerbations per person-year was similar in the simvastatin and placebo groups: 1.36±1.61 exacerbations and 1.39±1.73 exacerbations, respectively (P=0.54). The median number of days to the first exacerbation was also similar: 223 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 195 to 275) and 231 days (95% CI, 193 to 303), respectively (P=0.34). The number of nonfatal serious adverse events per person-year was similar, as well: 0.63 events with simvastatin and 0.62 events with placebo. There were 30 deaths in the placebo group and 28 in the simvastatin group (P=0.89).Simvastatin at a daily dose of 40 mg did not affect exacerbation rates or the time to a first exacerbation in patients with COPD who were at high risk for exacerbations. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; STATCOPE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01061671.).

Project description:Background:To support patients with COPD in their self-management of symptom worsening, we developed Adaptive Computerized COPD Exacerbation Self-management Support (ACCESS), an innovative software application that provides automated treatment advice without the interference of a health care professional. Exacerbation detection is based on 12 symptom-related yes-or-no questions and the measurement of peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and body temperature. Automated treatment advice is based on a decision model built by clinical expert panel opinion and Bayesian network modeling. The current paper describes the validity of ACCESS. Methods:We performed secondary analyses on data from a 3-month prospective observational study in which patients with COPD registered respiratory symptoms daily on diary cards and measured SpO2, FEV1, and body temperature. We examined the validity of the most important treatment advice of ACCESS, ie, to contact the health care professional, against symptom- and event-based exacerbations. Results:Fifty-four patients completed 2,928 diary cards. One or more of the different pieces of ACCESS advice were provided in 71.7% of all cases. We identified 115 symptom-based exacerbations. Cross-tabulation showed a sensitivity of 97.4% (95% CI 92.0-99.3), specificity of 65.6% (95% CI 63.5-67.6), and positive and negative predictive value of 13.4% (95% CI 11.2-15.9) and 99.8% (95% CI 99.3-99.9), respectively, for ACCESS' advice to contact a health care professional in case of an exacerbation. Conclusion:In many cases (71.7%), ACCESS gave at least one self-management advice to lower symptom burden, showing that ACCES provides self-management support for both day-to-day symptom variations and exacerbations. High sensitivity shows that if there is an exacerbation, ACCESS will advise patients to contact a health care professional. The high negative predictive value leads us to conclude that when ACCES does not provide the advice to contact a health care professional, the risk of an exacerbation is very low. Thus, ACCESS can safely be used in patients with COPD to support self-management in case of an exacerbation.

Dataset Information

Validation and Assessment of the COPD Treatment Ratio as a Predictor of Severe Exacerbations.

Publications

Validation and Assessment of the COPD Treatment Ratio as a Predictor of Severe Exacerbations.

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