A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liu Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7186134 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period.
Liu Z Z Magal P P Seydi O O Webb G G
Infectious Disease Modelling 20200428
At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both m ...[more]
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Project description:At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models, such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of reported cases. We thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic.
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The MEOPA was used as an alternative to sedation, allowing colonoscopies to be carried out, colon polyps and colorectal cancers to be detected.
| 2719406 | ecrin-mdr-crc
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Project description:BackgroundWith the continuous progress of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and the constant mutation of the virus strain, reinfection occurred in previously infected individuals and caused waves of the epidemic in many countries. Therefore, we aimed to explore the characteristics of COVID-19 reinfection during the epidemic period in Yangzhou and provide a scientific basis for assessing the COVID-19 situation and optimizing the allocation of medical resources.MethodsWe chose previously infected individuals of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reported locally in Yangzhou city from January 2020 to November 30, 2022. A telephone follow-up of cases was conducted from February to March 2023 to collect the COVID-19 reinfection information. We conducted a face-to-face survey on that who met the definition of reinfection to collect information on clinical symptoms, vaccination status of COVID-19, and so on. Data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0.ResultsAmong the 999 eligible respondents (92.24% of all the participants), consisting of 42.28% males and 57.72% females, the reinfection incidence of females was significantly higher than that of male cases (χ2 = 5.197, P < 0.05); the ages of the respondents ranged from 1 to 91 years, with the mean age of 42.28 (standard deviation 22.73) years; the most of the sufferers were infected initially with Delta variant (56.88%), followed by the Omicron subvariants BA.1/BA.2 (39.52%). Among all the eligible respondents, 126 (12.61%) reported COVID-19 reinfection appearing during the epidemic period, and the intervals between infections were from 73 to 1,082 days. The earlier the initial infection occurred, the higher the reinfection incidence and the reinfection incidence was significantly increased when the interval was beyond 1 year (P < 0.01) .119 reinfection cases (94.4%) were symptomatic when the most common symptoms included fever (65.54%) and cough (61.34%); compared with the initial infection cases, the proportion of clinical symptoms in the reinfected cases was significantly higher (P < 0.01). The reinfection incidence of COVID-19 vaccination groups with different doses was statistically significant (P < 0.01). Fewer reinfections were observed among the respondents with three doses of COVID-19 vaccination compared to the respondents with two doses (χ2 = 14.595, P < 0.001) or without COVID-19 vaccination (χ2 =4.263, P = 0.039).ConclusionAfter the epidemic period of COVID-19, the reinfection incidence varied with different types of SARS-CoV-2 strains. The reinfection incidence was influenced by various factors such as virus characteristics, vaccination, epidemic prevention policies, and individual variations. As the SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, vaccination and appropriate personal protection have practical significance in reducing the risk of reinfection.
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