A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liu Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7235969 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models, such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of reported cases. We thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic.
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Project description:Background: Monitoring nutritional status data in the adult population is extremely important to mediate their health status. Unfortunately, for Slovenia (2.1 million European Union citizens), data on the body composition status of the general adult population are currently rare or nonexistent in scientific journals. Furthermore, dietary intake was last assessed several years before the COVID-19 epidemic period. Methods: We randomly recruited 844 adult Slovenes from all regions of Slovenia. The primary aim of the cross-sectional study was to examine body composition status (using a medically approved electrical bioimpedance monitor) during the post-COVID-19 epidemic period. In addition, we assessed dietary intake (using a standardized food frequency questionnaire) and compared the obesity propensity for both sexes separately using the body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (FAT%) obesity classification of the World Health Organization. Results: Regarding BMI classification, 43% of the whole sample was overweight (28%) or obese (15%), and there were more older adults than adults (64% vs. 42%, p < 0.001). The average FAT% of adult females and males was 26.9% and 19.5% (p < 0.001), respectively, while for older adult females and males, it was 32.7% and 23% (p < 0.001). In addition, a comparison of the proportions of obese people between the two cut-off obesity classifications (BMI vs. FAT%) showed a significantly underestimated proportion of obese female participants based on BMI classification (13% vs. 17%, p = 0.005). In terms of the dietary intake of the assessed nutrients in comparison with the national dietary reference values for energy and nutrient intake, the participants, on average, had lower intake than the recommended values for carbohydrates, fiber, vitamins C, D and E (for males) and calcium, and higher intake than the recommended values for total fat, saturated fatty acids, cholesterol, sodium and chloride (for males). Conclusions: The results urgently call for the need to not only improve the overall national nutritional status but also for regular national monitoring of body composition and dietary intake statuses.
| S-EPMC9777729 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate possible viral transmission scenarios inside a high-rise building during the Omicron phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.Study designCross-sectional study design.MethodsIn order to determine the pathogenicity of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, demographic, vaccination and clinical data were collected from COVID-19 positive cases during an outbreak in a high-rise residential building in Shenzhen, China, in early 2022. The pattern of viral transmission inside the building was determined through field investigation and engineering analysis. The results highlight the risk of Omicron infection in high-rise residential buildings.ResultsSymptoms of infection with the Omicron variant are predominantly mild. Younger age has a greater impact on the severity of disease than vaccination status. Each floor of the high-rise building investigated contained 7 apartments, numbered 01 to 07, positioned in the same layout on each floor. The drainage system included vertical pipes from the ground to the roof of the building. There were statistically significant differences in infection rates at different time points and incidence ratios between apartment numbers ending in 07 (type 07) and other apartments (P < 0.001). Households with early disease onset were concentrated in apartment type 07 and the severity of their disease was more severe. The incubation period of the outbreak was 5.21-5.31 days and the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) was 12.08 (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.66, 18.29). Results suggest both non-contact and contact viral transmission may have contributed to the outbreak. The drainage system in the building allows aerosol regurgitation, thus indicating that the structure of the building may have led to spread of the virus from the sewage pipes. Infections in other apartments may have been as result of viral transmission in the elevators and intimate family contact.ConclusionsResults from this study suggest that Omicron transmission was likely to be via the sewage system, supplemented by contact transmission in the stairs and elevators. The environmental spread of Omicron needs to be highlighted and prevented.
| S-EPMC10199749 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a global public health threaten. A series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented in China, contributing to the improvement of air quality. In this study, we described the trend of air pollutant concentrations and the incidence of COVID-19 during the epidemic and applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to assess the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 235 Chinese cities. Disease progression based on both onset and report dates as well as control measures as potential confounding were considered in the analyses. We found that stringent prevention and control measures intending to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, contributed to a significant decline in the concentrations of air pollutants except ozone (O3). Significant positive associations of short-term exposure to air pollutants, including particulate matter with diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), particulate matter with diameters ≤10 μm (PM10), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with daily new confirmed cases were observed during the epidemic. Per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5 (lag0-15), PM10 (lag0-15), and NO2 (lag0-20) were associated with a 7% [95% confidence interval (CI): (4-9)], 6% [95% CI: (3-8)], and 19% [95% CI: (13-24)] increase in the counts of daily onset cases, respectively. Our results suggest that there is a statistically significant association between ambient air pollution and the spread of COVID-19. Thus, the quarantine measures can not only cut off the transmission of virus, but also retard the spread by improving ambient air quality, which might provide implications for the prevention and control of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7573694 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesCOVID-19 and Non-Covid-19 (NC) Pneumonia encountered high CT imaging overlaps during pandemic. The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of image-based quantitative CT features in discriminating COVID-19 from NC Pneumonia.Materials and methods145 patients with highly suspected COVID-19 were retrospectively enrolled from four centers in Sichuan Province during January 23 to March 23, 2020. 88 cases were confirmed as COVID-19, and 57 patients were NC. The dataset was randomly divided by 3:2 into training and testing sets. The quantitative CT radiomics features were extracted and screened sequentially by correlation analysis, Mann-Whitney U test, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression (LR) and backward stepwise LR with minimum AIC methods. The selected features were used to construct the LR model for differentiating COVID-19 from NC. Meanwhile, the differentiation performance of traditional quantitative CT features such as lesion volume ratio, ground glass opacity (GGO) or consolidation volume ratio were also considered and compared with Radiomics-based method. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis were conducted to evaluate the predicting performance.ResultsCompared with traditional CT quantitative features, radiomics features performed best with the highest Area Under Curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in the training (0.994, 0.942, 1.0 and 0.965) and testing sets (0.977, 0.944, 0.870, 0.915) (Delong test, P < 0.001). Among CT volume-ratio based models using lesion or GGO component ratio, the model combining CT lesion score and component ratio performed better than others, with the AUC, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 0.84, 0.692, 0.853, 0.756 in the training set and 0.779, 0.667, 0.826, 0.729 in the testing set. The significant difference of the most selected wavelet transformed radiomics features between COVID-19 and NC might well reflect the CT signs.ConclusionsThe differentiation between COVID-19 and NC could be well improved by using radiomics features, compared with traditional CT quantitative values.
| S-EPMC8758079 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Feedback: during the COVID-19 epidemic, access to operating theaters was restricted so that anesthetists and nurse anesthetists could reinforce the resuscitation workforce.
The MEOPA was used as an alternative to sedation, allowing colonoscopies to be carried out, colon polyps and colorectal cancers to be detected.
| 2719406 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:ObjectivesCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea.MethodsA mathematical model with vaccinated-susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination.ResultsThe results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.ConclusionsWe expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.
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Project description:The article is devoted to the parameters identification in the SI model. We consider several methods, starting with an exponential fit to the early cumulative data of SARS-CoV2 in mainland China. The present methodology provides a way to compute the parameters at the early stage of the epidemic. Next, we establish an identifiability result. Then we use the Bernoulli-Verhulst model as a phenomenological model to fit the data and derive some results on the parameters identification. The last part of the paper is devoted to some numerical algorithms to fit a daily piecewise constant rate of transmission.
| S-EPMC7813244 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper studies the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19. First, I show that the model is poorly identified from the observed number of deaths and confirmed cases. There are many sets of parameters that are observationally equivalent in the short run but lead to markedly different long run forecasts. Second, I show that the basic reproduction number R0 can be identified from the data, conditional on epidemiologic parameters, and propose several nonlinear SUR approaches to estimate R0 . I examine the performance of these methods using Monte Carlo studies and demonstrate that they yield fairly accurate estimates of R0 . Next, I apply these methods to estimate R0 for the US, California, and Japan, and document heterogeneity in the value of R0 across regions. My estimation approach accounts for possible underreporting of the number of cases. I demonstrate that if one fails to take underreporting into account and estimates R0 from the reported cases data, the resulting estimate of R0 may be biased downward and the resulting forecasts may exaggerate the long run number of deaths. Finally, I discuss how auxiliary information from random tests can be used to calibrate the initial parameters of the model and narrow down the range of possible forecasts of the future number of deaths.
| S-EPMC7392128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith the continuous progress of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and the constant mutation of the virus strain, reinfection occurred in previously infected individuals and caused waves of the epidemic in many countries. Therefore, we aimed to explore the characteristics of COVID-19 reinfection during the epidemic period in Yangzhou and provide a scientific basis for assessing the COVID-19 situation and optimizing the allocation of medical resources.MethodsWe chose previously infected individuals of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reported locally in Yangzhou city from January 2020 to November 30, 2022. A telephone follow-up of cases was conducted from February to March 2023 to collect the COVID-19 reinfection information. We conducted a face-to-face survey on that who met the definition of reinfection to collect information on clinical symptoms, vaccination status of COVID-19, and so on. Data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0.ResultsAmong the 999 eligible respondents (92.24% of all the participants), consisting of 42.28% males and 57.72% females, the reinfection incidence of females was significantly higher than that of male cases (χ2 = 5.197, P < 0.05); the ages of the respondents ranged from 1 to 91 years, with the mean age of 42.28 (standard deviation 22.73) years; the most of the sufferers were infected initially with Delta variant (56.88%), followed by the Omicron subvariants BA.1/BA.2 (39.52%). Among all the eligible respondents, 126 (12.61%) reported COVID-19 reinfection appearing during the epidemic period, and the intervals between infections were from 73 to 1,082 days. The earlier the initial infection occurred, the higher the reinfection incidence and the reinfection incidence was significantly increased when the interval was beyond 1 year (P < 0.01) .119 reinfection cases (94.4%) were symptomatic when the most common symptoms included fever (65.54%) and cough (61.34%); compared with the initial infection cases, the proportion of clinical symptoms in the reinfected cases was significantly higher (P < 0.01). The reinfection incidence of COVID-19 vaccination groups with different doses was statistically significant (P < 0.01). Fewer reinfections were observed among the respondents with three doses of COVID-19 vaccination compared to the respondents with two doses (χ2 = 14.595, P < 0.001) or without COVID-19 vaccination (χ2 =4.263, P = 0.039).ConclusionAfter the epidemic period of COVID-19, the reinfection incidence varied with different types of SARS-CoV-2 strains. The reinfection incidence was influenced by various factors such as virus characteristics, vaccination, epidemic prevention policies, and individual variations. As the SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, vaccination and appropriate personal protection have practical significance in reducing the risk of reinfection.
| S-EPMC10535086 | biostudies-literature