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Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes.

ABSTRACT: The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic's best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, as well as modern findings on plague etiology and epidemiology, we developed a series of dynamic, compartmental models of disease to explore which, if any, transmission routes of plague are feasible. Using expected parameter values, we find that the bubonic and bubonic-pneumonic transmission routes exceed maximalist mortality estimates and are of shorter detectable duration than described by the primary sources. When accounting for parameter uncertainty, several of the bubonic plague model configurations yielded interquartile estimates consistent with the upper end of maximalist estimates of mortality; however, these models had shorter detectable outbreaks than suggested by the primary sources. The pneumonic transmission routes suggest that by itself, pneumonic plague would not cause significant mortality in the city. However, our global sensitivity analysis shows that predicted disease dynamics vary widely for all hypothesized transmission routes, suggesting that regardless of its effects in Constantinople, the Justinianic Plague would have likely had differential effects across urban areas around the Mediterranean. Our work highlights the uncertainty surrounding the details in the primary sources on the Justinianic Plague and calls into question the likelihood that the Justinianic Plague affected all localities in the same way.

SUBMITTER: White LA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7192389 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes.

White Lauren A LA Mordechai Lee L

PloS one 20200430 4

The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic's best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, ...[more]

PMID: 32352988

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Project description:Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) and the more recently discovered Mycobacterium lepromatosis (M. lepromatosis). The two leprosy bacilli cause similar pathologic conditions. They primarily target the skin and the peripheral nervous system. Currently it is considered a Neglected Tropical Disease, being endemic in specific locations within countries of the Americas, Asia, and Africa, while in Europe it is only rarely reported. The reason for a spatial inequality in the prevalence of leprosy in so-called endemic pockets within a country is still largely unexplained. A systematic review was conducted targeting leprosy transmission research data, using PubMed and Scopus as sources. Publications between January 1, 1945 and July 1, 2019 were included. The transmission pathways of M. leprae are not fully understood. Solid evidence exists of an increased risk for individuals living in close contact with leprosy patients, most likely through infectious aerosols, created by coughing and sneezing, but possibly also through direct contact. However, this systematic review underscores that human-to-human transmission is not the only way leprosy can be acquired. The transmission of this disease is probably much more complicated than was thought before. In the Americas, the nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) has been established as another natural host and reservoir of M. leprae. Anthroponotic and zoonotic transmission have both been proposed as modes of contracting the disease, based on data showing identical M. leprae strains shared between humans and armadillos. More recently, in red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) with leprosy-like lesions in the British Isles M. leprae and M. lepromatosis DNA was detected. This finding was unexpected, because leprosy is considered a disease of humans (with the exception of the armadillo), and because it was thought that leprosy (and M. leprae) had disappeared from the United Kingdom. Furthermore, animals can be affected by other leprosy-like diseases, caused by pathogens phylogenetically closely related to M. leprae. These mycobacteria have been proposed to be grouped as a M. leprae-complex. We argue that insights from the transmission and reservoirs of members of the M. leprae-complex might be relevant for leprosy research. A better understanding of possible animal or environmental reservoirs is needed, because transmission from such reservoirs may partly explain the steady global incidence of leprosy despite effective and widespread multidrug therapy. A reduction in transmission cannot be expected to be accomplished by actions or interventions from the human healthcare domain alone, as the mechanisms involved are complex. Therefore, to increase our understanding of the intricate picture of leprosy transmission, we propose a One Health transdisciplinary research approach.

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Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes.

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Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes.

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