Plague Transmission from Corpses and Carcasses.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Jullien S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8314843 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic's best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, as well as modern findings on plague etiology and epidemiology, we developed a series of dynamic, compartmental models of disease to explore which, if any, transmission routes of plague are feasible. Using expected parameter values, we find that the bubonic and bubonic-pneumonic transmission routes exceed maximalist mortality estimates and are of shorter detectable duration than described by the primary sources. When accounting for parameter uncertainty, several of the bubonic plague model configurations yielded interquartile estimates consistent with the upper end of maximalist estimates of mortality; however, these models had shorter detectable outbreaks than suggested by the primary sources. The pneumonic transmission routes suggest that by itself, pneumonic plague would not cause significant mortality in the city. However, our global sensitivity analysis shows that predicted disease dynamics vary widely for all hypothesized transmission routes, suggesting that regardless of its effects in Constantinople, the Justinianic Plague would have likely had differential effects across urban areas around the Mediterranean. Our work highlights the uncertainty surrounding the details in the primary sources on the Justinianic Plague and calls into question the likelihood that the Justinianic Plague affected all localities in the same way.
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Project description:Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague, is enzootic in many parts of the world within wild rodent populations and is transmitted by different flea vectors. The ecology of plague is complex, with rodent hosts exhibiting varying susceptibilities to overt disease and their fleas exhibiting varying levels of vector competence. A long-standing question in plague ecology concerns the conditions that lead to occasional epizootics among susceptible rodents. Many factors are involved, but a major one is the transmission efficiency of the flea vector. In this study, using Oropsylla montana (a ground squirrel flea that is a major plague vector in the western United States), we comparatively quantified the efficiency of the two basic modes of flea-borne transmission. Transmission efficiency by the early-phase mechanism was strongly affected by the host blood source. Subsequent biofilm-dependent transmission by blocked fleas was less influenced by host blood and was more efficient. Mathematical modeling predicted that early-phase transmission could drive an epizootic only among highly susceptible rodents with certain blood characteristics, but that transmission by blocked O. montana could do so in more resistant hosts irrespective of their blood characteristics. The models further suggested that for most wild rodents, exposure to sublethal doses of Y. pestis transmitted during the early phase may restrain rapid epizootic spread by increasing the number of immune, resistant individuals in the population.
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Project description:GENOTYPIC CHARACTERIZATION OF Escherichia coli PRODUCER OF EXTENDED SPECTRUM BETALACTAMASES ISOLATED FROM CARCASSES OF CONVENTIONALLY PRODUCTION CHICKEN and PRODUCTION CHICKEN CERTIFIED WITH RESTRICTED USE OF ANTIMICROBIALS
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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347-1760) at both continental and country levels.MethodsWe apply Granger Causality Analysis to identify the casual relationship between climatic variables and plague outbreaks. We then apply Wavelet Analysis to explore the non-linear and non-stationary association between climate change and plague outbreaks.ResultsOur results show that 5-year lagged temperature and aridity index are the significant determinants of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. At the multi-decadal time scale, there are more frequent plague outbreaks in a cold and arid climate. The synergy of temperature and aridity index, rather than their individual effect, is more imperative in driving plague outbreaks, which is valid at both the continental and country levels.ConclusionsPlague outbreaks come after cold and dry spells. The multi-decadal climate variability is imperative in driving the cycles of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. The lagged and multi-decadal effect of climate change on plague outbreaks may be attributable to the complexity of ecological, social, or climate systems, through which climate exerts its influence on plague dynamics. These findings may contribute to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of plague and other rodent-borne or flea-borne infectious diseases in human history.
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Project description:It is important for the poultry industry to maximize product safety and quality by understanding the connection between bacterial diversity on chicken carcasses throughout poultry processing to the end of shelf life and the impact of the local processing environment. Enumeration of total aerobic bacteria, Campylobacter and Pseudomonas, and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing were used to evaluate the processing line by collecting 10 carcasses from five processing steps: prescald, postplucker, pre- and post-immersion chill, and post-air chill. The diversity throughout a 12-day shelf life was also determined by examining 30 packaged carcasses. To identify the sources of possible contamination, scald water tank, immersion chilling water tank, air samples, and wall surfaces in the air-chill room were analyzed. Despite bacterial reductions on carcasses (>5 log10 CFU/ml) throughout the process, each step altered the bacterial diversity. Campylobacter was a minor but persistent component in the bacterial community on carcasses. The combination of scalding, defeathering, and plucking distributed thermophilic spore-forming Anoxybacillus to carcasses, which remained at a high abundance on carcasses throughout subsequent processes. Pseudomonas was not isolated from carcasses after air chilling but was abundant on the wall of the air-chill room and became the predominant taxon at the end of shelf life, suggesting possible contamination through air movement. The results suggest that attention is needed at each processing step, regardless of bacterial reductions on carcasses. Changing scalding water regularly, maintaining good hygiene practices during processing, and thorough disinfection at the end of each processing day are important to minimize bacterial transmission.IMPORTANCE Culture-based and culture-independent approaches were utilized to reveal bacterial community changes on chicken carcasses at different processing steps and potential routes from the local processing environment. Current commercial processing effectively reduced bacterial loads on carcasses. Poultry processes have similar processes across facilities, but various processing arrangements and operating parameters could impact the bacterial transmission and persistence on carcasses differently. This study showed the use of a single tunnel incorporating scalding, defeathering and plucking may undesirably distribute the thermoduric bacteria, e.g., Campylobacter and Anoxybacillus, between the local environment and carcasses, whereas this does not occur when these steps are separated. The length of immersion and air chilling also impacted bacterial diversity on carcasses. Air chilling can transfer Pseudomonas from wall surfaces onto carcasses; this may subsequently influence chicken product shelf life. This study helps poultry processors understand the impact of current commercial processing and improve the chicken product quality and safety.
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