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FluA-p score: a novel prediction rule for mortality in influenza A-related pneumonia patients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age???65?years) score have been shown to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia. Their ability to predict influenza-related pneumonia, however, is less well-established. METHODS:A total of 693 laboratory-confirmed FluA-p patients diagnosed between Jan 2013 and Dec 2018 and recruited from five teaching hospitals in China were included in the study. The sample included 494 patients in the derivation cohort and 199 patients in the validation cohort. The prediction rule was established based on independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in FluA-p patients from the derivation cohort. RESULTS:The 30-day mortality of FluA-p patients was 19.6% (136/693). The FluA-p score was based on a multivariate logistic regression model designed to predict mortality. Results indicated the following significant predictors (regression statistics and point contributions toward total score in parentheses): blood urea nitrogen >?7?mmol/L (OR 1.604, 95% CI 1.150-4.492, p?=?0.040; 1 points), pO2/FiO2???250?mmHg (OR 2.649, 95% CI 1.103-5.142, p?=?0.022; 2 points), cardiovascular disease (OR 3.967, 95% CI 1.269-7.322, p?

SUBMITTER: Chen L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7206684 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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FluA-p score: a novel prediction rule for mortality in influenza A-related pneumonia patients.

Chen Liang L Han Xiudi X Li Yan Li YL Zhang Chunxiao C Xing Xiqian X

Respiratory research 20200508 1

<h4>Background</h4>The pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) score have been shown to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia. Their ability to predict influenza-related pneumonia, however, is less well-established.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 693 laboratory-confirmed FluA-p patients diagnosed between Jan 2013 and Dec 2018 and recruited from five teaching hospitals in China were included in the study. The sample ...[more]

PMID: 32384935

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Project description:BackgroundRespiratory viruses are important etiologies of community-acquired pneumonia. However, current knowledge on the prognosis of respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p) is limited. Thus, here we aimed to establish a clinical predictive model for mortality of patients with RV-p.MethodsA total of 1431 laboratory-confirmed patients with RV-p, including 1169 and 262 patients from respective derivation and validation cohorts from five teaching hospitals in China were assessed between January 2010 and December 2019. A prediction rule was established on the basis of risk factors for 30-day mortality of patients with RV-p from the derivation cohort using a multivariate logistic regression model.ResultsThe 30-day mortality of patients with RV-p was 16.8% (241/1431). The RV-p score was composed of nine predictors (including respective points of mortality risk): (a) age ⩾65 years (1 point); (b) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point); (c) mental confusion (1 point); (d) blood urea nitrogen (1 point); (e) cardiovascular disease (2 points); (f) smoking history (2 points); (g) arterial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspiration oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) < 250 mmHg (2 points); (h) lymphocyte counts <0.8 × 109/L (2 points); (i) arterial PH < 7.35 (3 points). A total of six points was used as the cut-off value for mortality risk stratification. Our model showed a sensitivity of 0.831 and a specificity of 0.783. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was more prominent for RV-p scoring [0.867, 95% confidence interval (CI)0.846-0.886] when compared with both pneumonia severity index risk (0.595, 95% CI 0.566-0.624, p < 0.001) and CURB-65 scoring (0.739, 95% CI 0.713-0.765, p < 0.001).ConclusionRV-p scoring was able to provide a good predictive accuracy for 30-day mortality, which accounted for a more effective stratification of patients with RV-p into relevant risk categories and, consequently, help physicians to make more rational clinical decisions.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Project description:BackgroundSevere influenza, especially influenza pneumonia, causes large numbers of deaths each year. Some patients who develop severe influenza have no known risk factors. In this study we investigated risk factors for mortality of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia who have different basic conditions. We also evaluated the power of pneumonia severity assessment tools in Chinese patients hospitalized with influenza A-related pneumonia. Together, these results could provide a basis for a screening method that has improved ability for the early identification of critical patients who will have poor prognoses in clinical practice.MethodsThis single-center, retrospective case-control study included 152 adult patients with severe influenza over six influenza seasons. Data for diagnoses and demographics, as well clinical data, laboratory findings, treatment methods, 30-day and 60-day outcomes of the patients were collected. Patients who had any of the risk factors for severe influenza were included in the high-risk group, and those that had no known risk factors were included in the low-risk group.ResultsThe PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP tools all underestimated the mortality rate of patients hospitalized with influenza A-related pneumonia, and this underestimate was more pronounced for low-risk patients. D-dimer (Odds ratio [OR] = 1.052, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.001-1.106, p = 0.045) and direct bilirubin (OR = 1.143, 95%CI 1.049-1.246, p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for mortality of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia. When used in combination with ferritin and D-dimer, the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUCROC) was 0.851 (95%CI 0.780-0.922, p < 0.001), 0.840 (95%CI 0.763-0.916, p < 0.001) and 0.829 (95%CI 0.748-0.911, p < 0.001) for PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP, respectively, which was higher than that obtained using PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP alone.ConclusionsThe findings demonstrate that currently used community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) scoring systems could underestimate the risk of influenza A-related pneumonia mortality. D-dimer was shown to be an independent risk factor of mortality for influenza A-related pneumonia in hospitalized patients, and a combination of D-dimer with ferritin could improve the predictive value of PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP for adverse prognoses of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia.

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FluA-p score: a novel prediction rule for mortality in influenza A-related pneumonia patients.

Publications

FluA-p score: a novel prediction rule for mortality in influenza A-related pneumonia patients.

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