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Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for mortality of patients with respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p score).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Respiratory viruses are important etiologies of community-acquired pneumonia. However, current knowledge on the prognosis of respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p) is limited. Thus, here we aimed to establish a clinical predictive model for mortality of patients with RV-p. METHODS:A total of 1431 laboratory-confirmed patients with RV-p, including 1169 and 262 patients from respective derivation and validation cohorts from five teaching hospitals in China were assessed between January 2010 and December 2019. A prediction rule was established on the basis of risk factors for 30-day mortality of patients with RV-p from the derivation cohort using a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS:The 30-day mortality of patients with RV-p was 16.8% (241/1431). The RV-p score was composed of nine predictors (including respective points of mortality risk): (a) age ?65?years (1 point); (b) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point); (c) mental confusion (1 point); (d) blood urea nitrogen (1 point); (e) cardiovascular disease (2 points); (f) smoking history (2 points); (g) arterial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspiration oxygen (PaO2/FiO2)?

SUBMITTER: Chen L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7488896 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for mortality of patients with respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p score).

Chen Liang L Han Xiudi X Li YanLi Y Zhang Chunxiao C Xing Xiqian X

Therapeutic advances in respiratory disease 20200101

<h4>Background</h4>Respiratory viruses are important etiologies of community-acquired pneumonia. However, current knowledge on the prognosis of respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p) is limited. Thus, here we aimed to establish a clinical predictive model for mortality of patients with RV-p.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 1431 laboratory-confirmed patients with RV-p, including 1169 and 262 patients from respective derivation and validation cohorts from five teaching hospitals in China were assess ...[more]

PMID: 32912054

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Project description:BackgroundThe pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) score have been shown to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia. Their ability to predict influenza-related pneumonia, however, is less well-established.MethodsA total of 693 laboratory-confirmed FluA-p patients diagnosed between Jan 2013 and Dec 2018 and recruited from five teaching hospitals in China were included in the study. The sample included 494 patients in the derivation cohort and 199 patients in the validation cohort. The prediction rule was established based on independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in FluA-p patients from the derivation cohort.ResultsThe 30-day mortality of FluA-p patients was 19.6% (136/693). The FluA-p score was based on a multivariate logistic regression model designed to predict mortality. Results indicated the following significant predictors (regression statistics and point contributions toward total score in parentheses): blood urea nitrogen > 7 mmol/L (OR 1.604, 95% CI 1.150-4.492, p = 0.040; 1 points), pO2/FiO2 ≤ 250 mmHg (OR 2.649, 95% CI 1.103-5.142, p = 0.022; 2 points), cardiovascular disease (OR 3.967, 95% CI 1.269-7.322, p < 0.001; 3 points), arterial PH < 7.35 (OR 3.959, 95% CI 1.393-7.332, p < 0.001; 3 points), smoking history (OR 5.176, 95% CI 2.604-11.838, p = 0.001; 4 points), lymphocytes < 0.8 × 109/L (OR 8.391, 95% CI 3.271-16.212, p < 0.001; 5 points), and early neurominidase inhibitor therapy (OR 0.567, 95% CI 0.202-0.833, p = 0.005; - 2 points). Seven points was used as the cut-off value for mortality risk stratification. The model showed a sensitivity of 0.941, a specificity of 0.762, and overall better predictive performance than the PSI risk class (AUROC = 0.908 vs 0.560, p < 0.001) and the CURB-65 score (AUROC = 0.908 vs 0.777, p < 0.001).ConclusionsOur results showed that a FluA-p score was easy to derive and that it served as a reliable prediction rule for 30-day mortality in FluA-p patients. The score could also effectively stratify FluA-p patients into relevant risk categories and thereby help treatment providers to make more rational clinical decisions.

Project description:Given the focus of existing clinical prediction scores on identifying drug-resistant pathogens as a whole, the application to individual pathogens and other institutions may yield weaker performance. This study aimed to develop a locally derived clinical prediction model for Pseudomonas-mediated pneumonia. This retrospective study included patients ≥18 years of age who were admitted to an academic medical center between 1 July 2010 and 31 July 2020 with a CDC National Healthcare Safety Network confirmed pneumonia diagnosis and were receiving antimicrobials during the index encounter, with a positive respiratory culture. Cystic fibrosis patients were excluded. Logistic regression analysis identified risk factors associated with the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from respiratory cultures within the derivation cohort (n = 186), which were weighted to generate a prediction score that was applied to the derivation and internal validation (n = 95) cohorts. A total of 281 patients met the inclusion criteria. Five predictor variables were identified, namely, tracheostomy status (4 points), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (5 points), enteral nutrition (9 points), chronic steroid use (11 points), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolation from any culture in the prior 6 months (14 points). At a score of >11, the prediction score demonstrated a sensitivity of 52.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.4 to 68.0%) and a specificity of 84.9% (95% CI, 72.4 to 93.35%) in the validation cohort. Score accuracy was 70.5% (95% CI, 60.3 to 79.4%), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.87) in the validation cohort. A prediction score for identifying Pseudomonas aeruginosa in pneumonia was derived, which may have the potential to decrease the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics. Validation with larger and external cohorts is necessary. IMPORTANCE In this study, we aimed to develop a locally derived clinical prediction model for Pseudomonas-mediated pneumonia. Utilizing a locally validated prediction score may help direct therapeutic management and be generalizable to other clinical settings and similar populations for the selection of appropriate antimicrobial coverage when data are lacking. Our study highlights a unique patient population, including immunocompromised, structural lung disease, and transplant patients. Five predictor variables were identified, namely, tracheostomy status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, enteral nutrition, chronic steroid use, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolation from any culture in the prior 6 months. A prediction score for identifying Pseudomonas aeruginosa in pneumonia was derived, which may have the potential to decrease the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, although validation with larger and external cohorts is necessary.

Project description:ObjectiveTo derive and validate an objective clinical prediction rule for the presence of uncomplicated ureteral stones in patients eligible for computed tomography (CT). We hypothesized that patients with a high probability of ureteral stones would have a low probability of acutely important alternative findings.DesignRetrospective observational derivation cohort; prospective observational validation cohort.SettingUrban tertiary care emergency department and suburban freestanding community emergency department.ParticipantsAdults undergoing non-contrast CT for suspected uncomplicated kidney stone. The derivation cohort comprised a random selection of patients undergoing CT between April 2005 and November 2010 (1040 patients); the validation cohort included consecutive prospectively enrolled patients from May 2011 to January 2013 (491 patients).Main outcome measuresIn the derivation phase a priori factors potentially related to symptomatic ureteral stone were derived from the medical record blinded to the dictated CT report, which was separately categorized by diagnosis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the top five factors associated with ureteral stone and these were assigned integer points to create a scoring system that was stratified into low, moderate, and high probability of ureteral stone. In the prospective phase this score was observationally derived blinded to CT results and compared with the prevalence of ureteral stone and important alternative causes of symptoms.ResultsThe derivation sample included 1040 records, with five factors found to be most predictive of ureteral stone: male sex, short duration of pain, non-black race, presence of nausea or vomiting, and microscopic hematuria, yielding a score of 0-13 (the STONE score). Prospective validation was performed on 491 participants. In the derivation and validation cohorts ureteral stone was present in, respectively, 8.3% and 9.2% of the low probability (score 0-5) group, 51.6% and 51.3% of the moderate probability (score 6-9) group, and 89.6% and 88.6% of the high probability (score 10-13) group. In the high score group, acutely important alternative findings were present in 0.3% of the derivation cohort and 1.6% of the validation cohort.ConclusionsThe STONE score reliably predicts the presence of uncomplicated ureteral stone and lower likelihood of acutely important alternative findings. Incorporation in future investigations may help to limit exposure to radiation and over-utilization of imaging.Trial registrationwww.clinicaltrials.gov NCT01352676.

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Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for mortality of patients with respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p score).

Publications

Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for mortality of patients with respiratory virus-related pneumonia (RV-p score).

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