Dataset Information

The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Geriatric patients frequently undergo emergency general surgery and accrue a greater risk of postoperative complications and fatal outcomes than the general population. It is highly relevant to develop the most appropriate care measures and to guide patient-centered decision-making around end-of-life care. Portsmouth - Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) has been used to predict mortality in patients undergoing different types of surgery. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the relative importance of the P-POSSUM score for predicting 90-day mortality in the elderly subjected to emergency laparotomy from statistical aspects.

Methods

One hundred and fifty-seven geriatric patients aged ?65?years undergoing emergency laparotomy between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2016 were included in the study. Mortality and 27 other patient characteristics were retrieved from the computerized records of Örebro University Hospital in Örebro, Sweden. Two supervised classification machine methods (logistic regression and random forest) were used to predict the 90-day mortality risk. Three scalers (Standard scaler, Robust scaler and Min-Max scaler) were used for variable engineering. The performance of the models was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Importance of the predictors were evaluated using permutation variable importance and Gini importance.

Results

The mean age of the included patients was 75.4 years (standard deviation =7.3 years) and the 90-day mortality rate was 29.3%. The most common indication for surgery was bowel obstruction occurring in 92 (58.6%) patients. Types of post-operative complications ranged between 7.0-36.9% with infection being the most common type. Both the logistic regression and random forest models showed satisfactory performance for predicting 90-day mortality risk in geriatric patients after emergency laparotomy, with AUCs of 0.88 and 0.93, respectively. Both models had an accuracy >?0.8 and a specificity ?0.9. P-POSSUM had the greatest relative importance for predicting 90-day mortality in the logistic regression model and was the fifth important predictor in the random forest model. No notable change was found in sensitivity analysis using different variable engineering methods with P-POSSUM being among the five most accurate variables for mortality prediction.

Conclusion

P-POSSUM is important for predicting 90-day mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients. The logistic regression model and random forest model may have an accuracy of >?0.8 and an AUC around 0.9 for predicting 90-day mortality. Further validation of the variables' importance and the models' robustness is needed by use of larger dataset.

SUBMITTER: Cao Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7206787 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients.

Cao Yang Y Bass Gary A GA Ahl Rebecka R Pourlotfi Arvid A Geijer Håkan H Montgomery Scott S Mohseni Shahin S

BMC medical informatics and decision making 20200507 1

<h4>Background</h4>Geriatric patients frequently undergo emergency general surgery and accrue a greater risk of postoperative complications and fatal outcomes than the general population. It is highly relevant to develop the most appropriate care measures and to guide patient-centered decision-making around end-of-life care. Portsmouth - Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) has been used to predict mortality in patients undergoing d ...[more]

PMID: 32380980

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Project description:BackgroundEmergency laparotomy (EL) is a central, high-risk procedure in emergency surgery. Patients in need of an EL present an acute pathology in the abdomen that must be operated on in order to save their lives. Usually, the underlying condition produces an affected physiology. The perioperative management of this critically ill patient group in need of high-risk surgery and anaesthesia is challenging and related to high mortality worldwide. However, outcomes in Sweden have yet to be studied. This retrospective cohort study explores the perioperative management and outcome after 710 ELs by investigating mortality, overall length of stay (LOS) in hospital, need for care at the intensive care unit (ICU), surgical complications and a general review of perioperative management.MethodsMedical records after laparotomy was retrospectively analysed for a period of 38 months (2014-2017), the emergency cases were included. Children (< 18 years), aortic surgery, second look and other expected reoperations were excluded. Demographic, management and outcome data were collected after an extensive analysis of the cohort.ResultsA total of 710 consecutive operations, representing 663 patients, were included in the cohort (mean age 65.6 years). Mortality (30 days/1 year) after all operations was 14.2% and 26.6% respectively. The mean LOS in hospital was 12 days, while LOS in the ICU was five days. Of all operations, 23.8% patients were admitted at any time to the ICU postoperatively and the 30-day mortality seen among ICU patients was 37.9%. Mortality was strongly correlated to existing comorbidity, high ASA classification, ICU care and faecal peritonitis. The mean/median time from notification to operate until the first incision was 3:46/3:02 h and 87% of patients had their first incision within 6 h of notification.ConclusionsIn this present Swedish study, high mortality and morbidity were observed after emergency laparotomy, which is in agreement with other recent studies.Trial registrationThe study has been registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03549624, registered 8 June 2018).

Project description:Past studies have highlighted variation in in-hospital mortality rates among hospitals performing emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether failure to rescue (FTR) contributes to this variability. Patients aged 18 years or over requiring surgery for large bowel perforation between 2013 and 2016 were extracted from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database. Information on complications were identified using linked Hospital Episode Statistics data and in-hospital deaths from the Office for National Statistics. The FTR rate was defined as the proportion of patients dying in hospital with a recorded complication, and was examined in hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality. Overall, 6413 patients were included with 1029 (16.0 per cent) in-hospital deaths. Some 3533 patients (55.1 per cent) had at least one complication: 1023 surgical (16.0 per cent) and 3332 medical (52.0 per cent) complications. There were 22 in-hospital deaths following a surgical complication alone, 685 deaths following a medical complication alone, 150 deaths following both a surgical and medical complication, and 172 deaths with no recorded complication. The risk of in-hospital death was high among patients who suffered either type of complication (857 deaths in 3533 patients; FTR rate 24.3 per cent): 172 deaths followed a surgical complication (FTR-surgical rate 16.8 per cent) and 835 deaths followed a medical complication (FTR-medical rate of 25.1 per cent). After adjustment for patient characteristics and hospital factors, hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality did not have different FTR rates (P = 0.770). Among patients having emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation, efforts to reduce the risk of in-hospital death should focus on reducing avoidable complications. There was no evidence of variation in FTR rates across National Health Service hospitals in England.

Project description:BackgroundUrgency triage in the emergency department (ED) is important for early identification of potentially lethal conditions and extensive resource utilization. However, in older patients, urgency triage systems could be improved by taking geriatric vulnerability into account. We investigated the association of geriatric vulnerability screening in addition to triage urgency levels with 30-day mortality in older ED patients.DesignSecondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study.SettingEDs within four Dutch hospitals.ParticipantsConsecutive patients, aged 70 years or older, who were prospectively included.MeasurementsPatients were triaged using the Manchester Triage System (MTS). In addition, the APOP screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Comparison was made between mortality within the geriatric high- and low-risk screened patients in every urgency triage category. We calculated the difference in explained variance of mortality by adding the geriatric screener (APOP) to triage urgency (MTS) by calculating Nagelkerke R2 .ResultsWe included 2,608 patients with a median age of 79 (interquartile range = 74-84) years, of whom 521 (20.0%) patients were categorized as high risk according to geriatric screening. Patients were triaged on urgency as standard (27.2%), urgent (58.5%), and very urgent (14.3%). In total, 132 (5.1%) patients were deceased within a period of 30 days. Within every urgency triage category, 30-day mortality was threefold higher in geriatric high-risk compared to low-risk patients (overall = 11.7% vs 3.4%; P < .001). The explained variance of 30-day mortality with triage urgency was 1.0% and increased to 6.3% by adding the geriatric screener.ConclusionCombining triage urgency with geriatric screening has the potential to improve triage, which may help clinicians to deliver early appropriate care to older ED patients. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1755-1762, 2020.

Dataset Information

The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients.

Similar Datasets

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