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Optimal control approaches for combining medicines and mosquito control in tackling dengue.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a debilitating and devastating viral infection spread by mosquito vectors, and over half the world's population currently live at risk of dengue (and other flavivirus) infections. Here, we use an integrated epidemiological and vector ecology framework to predict optimal approaches for tackling dengue. Our aim is to investigate how vector control and/or vaccination strategies can be best combined and implemented for dengue disease control on small networks, and whether these optimal strategies differ under different circumstances. We show that a combination of vaccination programmes and the release of genetically modified self-limiting mosquitoes (comparable to sterile insect approaches) is always considered the most beneficial strategy for reducing the number of infected individuals, owing to both methods having differing impacts on the underlying disease dynamics. Additionally, depending on the impact of human movement on the disease dynamics, the optimal way to combat the spread of dengue is to focus prevention efforts on large population centres. Using mathematical frameworks, such as optimal control, are essential in developing predictive management and mitigation strategies for dengue disease control.

SUBMITTER: Rawson T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7211884 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimal control approaches for combining medicines and mosquito control in tackling dengue.

Rawson Thomas T Wilkins Kym E KE Bonsall Michael B MB

Royal Society open science 20200422 4

Dengue is a debilitating and devastating viral infection spread by mosquito vectors, and over half the world's population currently live at risk of dengue (and other flavivirus) infections. Here, we use an integrated epidemiological and vector ecology framework to predict optimal approaches for tackling dengue. Our aim is to investigate how vector control and/or vaccination strategies can be best combined and implemented for dengue disease control on small networks, and whether these optimal str ...[more]

PMID: 32431854

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Project description:BackgroundAedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection.MethodsWe conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype.ResultsAfter successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3).ConclusionsIntrogression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).

Project description:The co-circulation of different emerging viral diseases is a big challenge from an epidemiological point of view. The similarity of symptoms, cases of virus co-infection, and cross-reaction can mislead in the diagnosis of the disease. In this article, a new mathematical model for COVID-19, zika, chikungunya, and dengue co-dynamics is developed and studied to assess the impact of COVID-19 on zika, dengue, and chikungunya dynamics and vice-versa. The local and global stability analyses are carried out. The model is shown to undergo a backward bifurcation under a certain condition. Global sensitivity analysis is also performed on the parameters of the model to determine the most dominant parameters. If the zika-related reproduction number ℛ0Z is used as the response function, then important parameters are: the effective contact rate for vector-to-human transmission of zika ( β2h , which is positively correlated), the human natural death rate ( ϑh , positively correlated), and the vector recruitment rate ( Ψv , also positively correlated). In addition, using the class of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and zika ( ℐCZh ) as response function, the most dominant parameters are: the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission ( β1 , positively correlated), the effective contact rate for vector-to-human transmission of zika ( β2h , positively correlated). To control the co-circulation of all the diseases adequately under an endemic setting, time dependent controls in the form of COVID-19, zika, dengue, and chikungunya preventions are incorporated into the model and analyzed using the Pontryagin's principle. The model is fitted to real COVID-19, zika, dengue, and chikungunya datasets for Espirito Santo (a city with the co-circulation of all the diseases), in Brazil and projections made for the cumulative cases of each of the diseases. Through simulations, it is shown that COVID-19 prevention could greatly reduce the burden of co-infections with zika, dengue, and chikungunya. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the control of the arbovirus diseases is also highlighted. Furthermore, it is observed that prevention controls for zika, dengue, and chikungunya can significantly reduce the burden of co-infections with COVID-19.

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Optimal control approaches for combining medicines and mosquito control in tackling dengue.

Publications

Optimal control approaches for combining medicines and mosquito control in tackling dengue.

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