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Analysis and external validation of a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer.

ABSTRACT: Objective:Peritoneal dissemination is difficult to diagnose by conventional imaging technologies. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer (GC) patients. Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 1,112 GC patients in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 2001 and 2010 as the development set and 474 patients from The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University between 2010 and 2016 as the validation set. The clinicopathological variables associated with gastric cancer with peritoneal dissemination (GCPD) were analyzed. We used logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors for peritoneal dissemination. Then, we constructed a nomogram for the prediction of GCPD and defined its predictive value with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. External validation was performed to validate the applicability of the nomogram. Results:In total, 250 patients were histologically identified as having peritoneal dissemination. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, sex, tumor location, tumor size, signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC), T stage, N stage and Borrmann classification IV (Borrmann IV) were independent risk factors for peritoneal dissemination. We constructed a nomogram consisting of these eight factors to predict GCPD and found an optimistic predictive capability, with a C-index of 0.791, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.791, and a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.762-0.820. The results found in the external validation set were also promising. Conclusions:We constructed a highly sensitive nomogram that can assist clinicians in the early diagnosis of GCPD and serve as a reference for optimizing clinical management strategies.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7219103 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analysis and external validation of a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer.

Chen Xijie X Chen Shi S Wang Xinyou X Nie Runcong R Chen Dongwen D Xiang Jun J Lin Yijia Y Chen Yingbo Y Peng Junsheng J

Chinese journal of cancer research = Chung-kuo yen cheng yen chiu 20200401 2

<h4>Objective</h4>Peritoneal dissemination is difficult to diagnose by conventional imaging technologies. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer (GC) patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively analyzed 1,112 GC patients in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 2001 and 2010 as the development set and 474 patients from The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University between 2010 and 2016 as the validation set. The clinicopathological v ...[more]

PMID: 32410797

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Project description:BackgroundGastric cancer (GC) is one of the most malignant diseases and threatens the health of individuals across the globe. Hitherto, the identification of prognosis risk stratification on GC has mainly depended on the TNM staging, but owing to its inaccuracy and incompleteness, the prognostic value it offers remains controversial in the current clinical setting. Thus, an effective prognostic model for GC after radical gastrectomy is still needed.MethodsPatients with pathologically confirmed GC who underwent radical gastrectomy from 2 different centers were retrospectively enrolled into a training and the validation cohort, respectively. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was applied to select variables among multiple factors, including clinical characteristics, pathological parameters, and surgery- and treatment-related indicators. The multivariate Cox regression method was used to establish the model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival. Both internal and external validations of the nomogram were then completed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Finally, prognostic risk stratification of GC was conducted with X-tile software.ResultsA total of 1,424 patients with GC were eligible in this study, including 1,010 in the training cohort and 414 in the validation cohort. Seven indicators were selected by LASSO to develop the nomogram, including the number of positive lymph nodes, tumor size, adjacent organ invasion, vascular invasion, the level of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA 125), depth of invasion, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. The nomogram demonstrated a robust predictive capacity with favorable accuracy, discrimination, and clinical utility both in the internal and external validations. Moreover, we divided the population into 3 risk groups of survival according to the cutoff points generated by X-tile, and in this way, the nomogram was further improved into a risk-stratified prognosis model.ConclusionsWe have developed a prognostic risk stratification nomogram for GC patients after radical gastrectomy with 7 available indicators that may guide clinical practice and help facilitate tailored decision-making, thus avoiding overtreatment or undertreatment and improving communication between clinicians and patients.

Project description:Background Peritoneal dissemination (PD) is the most common mode of metastasis for advanced gastric cancer (GC) with poor prognosis. It is of great significance to accurately predict preoperative PD and develop optimal treatment strategies for GC patients. Our study assessed the diagnostic potential of serum tumor markers and clinicopathologic features, to improve the accuracy of predicting the presence of PD in GC patients. Methods In our study, 1264 patients with GC at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center and Wenzhou people’s hospital from 2018 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, including 316 cases of PD and 948 cases without PD. All patients underwent enhanced CT scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before surgery and treatment. Clinicopathological features, including tumor diameter and tumor stage (depth of tumor invasion, nearby lymph node metastasis and distant metastasis), were obtained by imaging examination. The independent risk factors for PD were screened through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and the results were expressed with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A model of PD diagnosis and prediction was established by using Cox proportional hazards regression model of training set. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction model was verified by ROC curve and calibration plots. Results Univariate analysis showed that PD in GC was significantly related to tumor diameter (odds ratio (OR)=12.06, p<0.0006), depth of invasion (OR=14.55, p<0.0001), lymph node metastases (OR=5.89, p<0.0001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (OR=2.50, p<0.0001), CA125 (OR=11.46, p<0.0001), CA72-4 (OR=4.09, p<0.0001), CA19-9 (OR=2.74, p<0.0001), CA50 (OR=5.20, p<0.0001) and CA242 (OR=3.83, p<0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that clinical invasion depth and serum marker of CA125 and CA72-4 were independent risk factors for PD. The prediction model was established based on the risk factors using the R program. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was 0.931 (95% CI: 0.900–0.960), with the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values of 90.5%, 86.2% and 82.2%, respectively. Conclusion The nomogram model constructed using CA125, CA72-4 and depth of invasion increases the accuracy and sensitivity in predicting the incidence of PD in GC patients and can be used as an important tool for preoperative diagnosis.

Dataset Information

Analysis and external validation of a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer.

Publications

Analysis and external validation of a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer.

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