Dataset Information

External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients.

ABSTRACT: The SOURCE prediction model predicts individualised survival conditional on various treatments for patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate SOURCE in an external cohort from the Belgian Cancer Registry. Data of Belgian patients diagnosed with metastatic disease between 2004 and 2014 were extracted (n = 4097). Model calibration and discrimination (c-indices) were determined. A total of 2514 patients with oesophageal cancer and 1583 patients with gastric cancer with a median survival of 7.7 and 5.4 months, respectively, were included. The oesophageal cancer model showed poor calibration (intercept: 0.30, slope: 0.42) with an absolute mean prediction error of 14.6%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was -2.6%. The concordance index (c-index) of the oesophageal model was 0.64. The gastric cancer model showed good calibration (intercept: 0.02, slope: 0.91) with an absolute mean prediction error of 2.5%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was 2.0%. The c-index of the gastric cancer model was 0.66. The SOURCE gastric cancer model was well calibrated and had a similar performance in the Belgian cohort compared with the Dutch internal validation. However, the oesophageal cancer model had not. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating the performance of prediction models in other populations.

SUBMITTER: van Kleef JJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7225946 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients.

van Kleef J J JJ van den Boorn H G HG Verhoeven R H A RHA Vanschoenbeek K K Abu-Hanna A A Zwinderman A H AH Sprangers M A G MAG van Oijen M G H MGH De Schutter H H van Laarhoven H W M HWM

Cancers 20200331 4

The SOURCE prediction model predicts individualised survival conditional on various treatments for patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate SOURCE in an external cohort from the Belgian Cancer Registry. Data of Belgian patients diagnosed with metastatic disease between 2004 and 2014 were extracted (<i>n</i> = 4097). Model calibration and discrimination (c-indices) were determined. A total of 2514 patients with oesophageal cancer and 1583 patie ...[more]

PMID: 32244310

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveThe benefit of prophylactic repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is based on the risk of rupture exceeding the risk of death from other comorbidities. The purpose of this study was to validate a 5-year survival prediction model for patients undergoing elective repair of asymptomatic AAA <6.5 cm to assist in optimal selection of patients.MethodsAll patients undergoing elective repair for asymptomatic AAA <6.5 cm (open or endovascular) from 2002 to 2011 were identified from a single institutional database (validation group). We assessed the ability of a prior published Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) model (derivation group) to predict survival in our cohort. The model was assessed for discrimination (concordance index), calibration (calibration slope and calibration in the large), and goodness of fit (score test).ResultsThe VSGNE derivation group consisted of 2367 patients (70% endovascular). Major factors associated with survival in the derivation group were age, coronary disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal function, and antiplatelet and statin medication use. Our validation group consisted of 1038 patients (59% endovascular). The validation group was slightly older (74 vs 72 years; P < .01) and had a higher proportion of men (76% vs 68%; P < .01). In addition, the derivation group had higher rates of advanced cardiac disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and baseline creatinine concentration (1.2 vs 1.1 mg/dL; P < .01). Despite slight differences in preoperative patient factors, 5-year survival was similar between validation and derivation groups (75% vs 77%; P = .33). The concordance index of the validation group was identical between derivation and validation groups at 0.659 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.69). Our validation calibration in the large value was 1.02 (P = .62, closer to 1 indicating better calibration), calibration slope of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), and score test of P = .57 (>.05 indicating goodness of fit).ConclusionsAcross different populations of patients, assessment of age and level of cardiac, pulmonary, and renal disease can accurately predict 5-year survival in patients with AAA <6.5 cm undergoing repair. This risk prediction model is a valid method to assess mortality risk in determining potential overall survival benefit from elective AAA repair.

Project description:AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:The aims of this study were to identify all published prognostic models predicting retinopathy risk applicable to people with type 2 diabetes, to assess their quality and accuracy, and to validate their predictive accuracy in a head-to-head comparison using an independent type 2 diabetes cohort. METHODS:A systematic search was performed in PubMed and Embase in December 2019. Studies that met the following criteria were included: (1) the model was applicable in type 2 diabetes; (2) the outcome was retinopathy; and (3) follow-up was more than 1 year. Screening, data extraction (using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systemic reviews of prediction modelling studies [CHARMS]) and risk of bias assessment (by prediction model risk of bias assessment tool [PROBAST]) were performed independently by two reviewers. Selected models were externally validated in the large Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort in the Netherlands. Retinopathy risk was calculated using baseline data and compared with retinopathy incidence over 5 years. Calibration after intercept adjustment and discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) were assessed. RESULTS:Twelve studies were included in the systematic review, reporting on 16 models. Outcomes ranged from referable retinopathy to blindness. Discrimination was reported in seven studies with C statistics ranging from 0.55 (95% CI 0.54, 0.56) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78, 0.88). Five studies reported on calibration. Eight models could be compared head-to-head in the DCS cohort (N?=?10,715). Most of the models underestimated retinopathy risk. Validating the models against different severities of retinopathy, C statistics ranged from 0.51 (95% CI 0.49, 0.53) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.88, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:Several prognostic models can accurately predict retinopathy risk in a population-based type 2 diabetes cohort. Most of the models include easy-to-measure predictors enhancing their applicability. Tailoring retinopathy screening frequency based on accurate risk predictions may increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy care. REGISTRATION:PROSPERO registration ID CRD42018089122.

Project description:Background and objectivesThe International IgA Nephropathy Network recently developed and externally validated two models to predict the risk of progression of IgA nephropathy: full models without and with race. This study sought to externally validate the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool in a large, independent, and contemporary cohort in China.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe included 1373 patients with biopsy-confirmed primary IgA nephropathy from The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2012 to May 2018 and calculated predicted risks for each patient. The outcomes of interest were a 50% decline in eGFR or kidney failure. We assessed the performance of both models using discrimination (concordance statistics and Kaplan-Meier curves between subgroups), calibration (calibration plots), reclassification (net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis).ResultsThe median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 21-43 months; range, 1-95 months), and 186 (14%) patients reached the kidney outcomes of interest. Both models showed excellent discrimination (concordance statistics >0.85 and well separated survival curves). Overall, the full model without race generally underestimated the risk of primary outcome, whereas the full model with race was well calibrated for predicting 5-year risk. Compared with the full model without race, the full model with race had significant improvement in reclassification, as assessed by the net reclassification improvement (0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.59) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.04 to 0.08). Decision curve analysis showed that both full models had a higher net benefit than default strategies, and the model with race performed better.ConclusionsIn this study, both full models demonstrated remarkable discrimination, acceptable calibration, and satisfactory clinical utility. The relatively short follow-up time may have limited the validation of these models.

Project description:BackgroundLong noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are versatile in functions and can regulate cancer development, including the modulation of cancer immunity. Immune-related lncRNA signatures predicting prognosis have been reported in multiple cancers, but relevant studies in gastric cancer (GC) are still lacking.MethodsWe performed a comprehensive analysis using TCGA and Immport databases and identified an immune-related lncRNA signature by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry assays were used for further validation. KEGG and GO analysis and ceRNA network establishment were carried out to explore the regulatory functions.ResultsWe first identified an immune-related lncRNA signature, which can stratify gastric cancer patients into high- and low-risk subgroups and the high-risk cases frequently suffered from shorter overall survival time. Next, we validated the reliability of the lncRNA signature in an independent 75 gastric cancer samples and demonstrated that the three-year survival rate in high-risk patients was only 30.8% versus 66.5% in low-risk counterparts. Functional exploration indicated that the lncRNA signature might participate in multiple cancer-associated processes including cell adhesion and migration, cytokine-receptor interaction and immune evasion. Additionally, we observed that high-risk samples tended to form an immunosuppressive microenvironment, which had more M2-polarized macrophages and Tregs, but fewer CD8 effector T cells within tumors. Moreover, we found that PD-1 and PD-L1 were dramatically upregulated in a subset of high-risk patients with abundant M2 and Treg infiltration, implying these patients may benefit from anti-PD-1 and PD-L1 immunotherapy.ConclusionsThese results showed that the immune-related lncRNA signature had a prominent capacity to predict overall survival and the immune status of microenvironment in gastric cancer. Our findings may be useful for the risk-stratification management and provide a valuable clue to identify proper patients potentially benefit from immune checkpoint therapy in gastric cancer.

Dataset Information

External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients.

Publications

External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets