Monitoring disease transmissibility of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in Zhejiang, China.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chong KC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7227576 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Monitoring disease transmissibility of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in Zhejiang, China.
Chong Ka Chun KC Cheng Wei W Zhao Shi S Ling Feng F Mohammad Kirran N KN Wang Maggie Haitian MH Zee Benny Chung Ying BCY Wei Lei L Xiong Xi X Liu Hengyan H Wang Jingxuan J Chen Enfu E
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20200515
Owing to the frequent travel connections between Wuhan and Zhejiang, Zhejiang was the third worst-affected province in China with 1,205 cases confirmed before 26 February 2020. The transmissibility of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease was monitored in Zhejiang, accounting for the transmissions from imported cases. Even though Zhejiang was one of the worst-affected provinces, an interruption of disease transmission (i.e. instantaneous reproduction numbers <1) was observed in early/mid-February a ...[more]
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Project description:Background:Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China. Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP. Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies. Method:By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R 0t proposed by Cori et al. (2013), we use R 0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020. In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively. The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19. Results:The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec. 8, 2019, to Feb. 9, 2020. The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R 0t ) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27, respectively. After reaching a peak on Jan. 27, R 0t showed a continuous decline trend. On Feb. 9, R 0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1. We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R 0t . We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R 0t . Conclusion:The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R 0t is still larger than the threshold 1. The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potential infection in Wuhan. Meanwhile, since Jan. 18, 2020, the people successively accessed COVID-19-related information via the Internet, which may help to effectively implement the government's prevention and control strategy and contribute to reducing the transmissibility of NCP. Therefore, ongoing travel restriction and public health awareness remain essential to provide a foundation for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7235687 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundZhejiang Province is one of the five provinces in China that had the highest incidence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Zhejiang, ranked fourth highest in COVID-19 incidence, is located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. This study was undertaken to identify the space-time characteristics of COVID-19 in Zhejiang.MethodsData on COVID-19 cases in Zhejiang Province from January to July 2020 were obtained from this network system. Individual information on cases and deaths was imported, and surveillance information, including demographic characteristics and geographic and temporal distributions, was computed by the system. The Knox test was used to identify possible space-time interactions to test whether cases that are close in distance were also close in time. Network analysis was performed to determine the relationship among the cases in a transmission community and to try to identify the key nodes.ResultsIn total, 1475 COVID-19 cases and 1 fatal case were reported from January to July 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China. Most of the cases occurred before February 15th, which accounted for 90.10%. The imported cases increased and became the main risk in Zhejiang Province after February 2020. The risk areas showed strong heterogeneity according to the Knox test. The areas at short distances within 1 kilometer and at brief periods within 5 days presented relatively high risk. The numbers of subcommunities for the four clusters were 12, 9, 6 and 4. There was obvious heterogeneity in the modularity of subcommunities. The maximum values of the node centrality for the four clusters were 2.9474, 4.3706, 4.1080 and 2.7500.ConclusionsCOVID-19 was brought under control over a short period in Zhejiang Province. Imported infections from outside of mainland China then became a new challenge. The effects of spatiotemporal interaction exhibited interval heterogeneity. The characteristics of transmission showed short range and short term risks. The importance to the cluster of each case was detected, and the key patients were identified. It is suggested that we should focus on key patients in complex conditions and in situations with limited control resources.
| S-EPMC8448332 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about COVID-19 outside Hubei. The aim of this paper was to describe the clinical characteristics and imaging manifestations of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, 149 RT-PCR confirmed positive patients were consecutively enrolled from January 17th to February 10th, 2020 in three tertiary hospitals of Wenzhou. Outcomes were followed up until Feb 15th, 2020.FindingsA total of 85 patients had Hubei travel/residence history, while another 49 had contact with people from Hubei and 15 had no traceable exposure history to Hubei. Fever, cough and expectoration were the most common symptoms, 14 patients had decreased oxygen saturation, 33 had leukopenia, 53 had lymphopenia, and 82 had elevated C-reactive protein. On chest computed tomography (CT), lung segments 6 and 10 were mostly involved. A total of 287 segments presented ground glass opacity, 637 presented mixed opacity and 170 presented consolidation. Lesions were more localized in the peripheral lung with a patchy form. No significant difference was found between patients with or without Hubei exposure history. Seventeen patients had normal CT on admission of these, 12 had negative findings even10 days later.InterpretationMost patients presented with a mild infection in our study. The imaging pattern of multifocal peripheral ground glass or mixed opacity with predominance in the lower lung is highly suspicious of COVID-19 in the first week of disease onset. Nevetheless, some patients can present with a normal chest finding despite testing positive for COVID-19.FundingWe did not receive any fundings.
| S-EPMC7102539 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Since December, 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally. Little is known about the epidemiological and clinical features of paediatric patients with COVID-19. METHODS:We retrospectively retrieved data for paediatric patients (aged 0-16 years) with confirmed COVID-19 from electronic medical records in three hospitals in Zhejiang, China. We recorded patients' epidemiological and clinical features. FINDINGS:From Jan 17 to March 1, 2020, 36 children (mean age 8·3 [SD 3·5] years) were identified to be infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The route of transmission was by close contact with family members (32 [89%]) or a history of exposure to the epidemic area (12 [33%]); eight (22%) patients had both exposures. 19 (53%) patients had moderate clinical type with pneumonia; 17 (47%) had mild clinical type and either were asymptomatic (ten [28%]) or had acute upper respiratory symptoms (seven [19%]). Common symptoms on admission were fever (13 [36%]) and dry cough (seven [19%]). Of those with fever, four (11%) had a body temperature of 38·5°C or higher, and nine (25%) had a body temperature of 37·5-38·5°C. Typical abnormal laboratory findings were elevated creatine kinase MB (11 [31%]), decreased lymphocytes (11 [31%]), leucopenia (seven [19%]), and elevated procalcitonin (six [17%]). Besides radiographic presentations, variables that were associated significantly with severity of COVID-19 were decreased lymphocytes, elevated body temperature, and high levels of procalcitonin, D-dimer, and creatine kinase MB. All children received interferon alfa by aerosolisation twice a day, 14 (39%) received lopinavir-ritonavir syrup twice a day, and six (17%) needed oxygen inhalation. Mean time in hospital was 14 (SD 3) days. By Feb 28, 2020, all patients were cured. INTERPRETATION:Although all paediatric patients in our cohort had mild or moderate type of COVID-19, the large proportion of asymptomatic children indicates the difficulty in identifying paediatric patients who do not have clear epidemiological information, leading to a dangerous situation in community-acquired infections. FUNDING:Ningbo Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Diseases, Ningbo Reproductive Medicine Centre, and Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Projects of Wenzhou.
| S-EPMC7158906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the associated coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have spread throughout China. Previous studies predominantly focused on its place of origin, Wuhan, causing over estimation of the disease severity due to selection bias. We analyzed 465 confirmed cases in Zhejiang province to determine the epidemiological, clinical, and virological characteristics of COVID-19.MethodsEpidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, and management data from qRT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients from January 17, 2020, to January 31, 2020, were collected, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis for independent predictors of severe/critical-type COVID-19 and bioinformatic analysis for features of SARS-CoV-2 from Zhejiang province.ResultsAmong 465 COVID-19 patients, median age was 45 years, while hypertension, diabetes, and chronic liver disease were the most common comorbidities. History of exposure to the epidemic area was present in 170 (36.56%) and 185 (39.78%) patients were clustered in 77 families. Severe/critical-type of COVID-19 developed in 49 (10.54%) patients. Fever and cough were the most common symptoms, while diarrhea/vomiting was reported in 58 (12.47%) patients. Multivariate analysis revealed eight risk factors for severe/critical COVID-19. Glucocorticoids and antibiotics were administered to 60 (12.90%) and 218(46.88%) patients, respectively. Bioinformatics showed four single amino acid mutations and one amino acid position loss in SARS-CoV-2 from Zhejiang province, with more similarity to humans than to viruses.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 showed virological mutations and more human transmission in Zhejiang province, indicating considerable epidemiological and clinical changes. Caution in glucocorticoid and antibiotics use is advisable.
| S-EPMC7273099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMonitoring the reproduction number (Rt ) of the disease could help determine whether there is sustained transmission in a population, but areas with similar epidemic trends could have different transmission dynamics given the risk from imported cases varied across regions. In this study, we examined the Rt of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by taking different dynamics of imported cases into account and compared the transmissibility of COVID-19 at different intervention periods in Hangzhou and Shenzhen.MethodsWe obtained the daily aggregated counts of laboratory-confirmed imported and local cases of COVID-19 infections in Hangzhou and Shenzhen from January 1 to March 13, 2020. Daily Rt and piecewise Rt before and after Wuhan lockdown were estimated, accounting for imported cases.ResultsSince the epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen was dominated by imported cases, Rt was around 0.1 to 0.7 before the Wuhan lockdown. After the lockdown of Wuhan and the initialization of measures in response to the outbreak, local transmission was well-controlled as indicated by a low estimated value of piecewise Rt , 0.15 (95% CI [0.09-0.21]). On the contrary, Rt obtained for Hangzhou ranged from 1.2 to 4.9 with a piecewise Rt of 2.55 (95% CI [2.13-2.97]) before the lockdown of Wuhan due to the surge in local cases. Because of the Wuhan lockdown and other outbreak response measures, Rt dropped below unity in mid-February.ConclusionsEven though Shenzhen had more cases than Hangzhou, local transmission did not sustain probably due to limited transmission from imported cases owing to the reduction in local susceptibles as residents left the city during Chunyun. The lockdown measures and local outbreak responses helped reduce the local transmissibility.
| S-EPMC7651459 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Many of the drugs being used in the treatment of the ongoing pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are associated with QT prolongation. Expert guidance supports electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring to optimize patient safety. Objective:The purpose of this study was to establish an enhanced process for ECG monitoring of patients being treated for COVID-19. Methods:We created a Situation Background Assessment Recommendation tool identifying the indication for ECGs in patients with COVID-19 and tagged these ECGs to ensure prompt over reading and identification of those with QT prolongation (corrected QT interval > 470 ms for QRS duration ? 120 ms; corrected QT interval > 500 ms for QRS duration > 120 ms). This triggered a phone call from the electrophysiology service to the primary team to provide management guidance and a formal consultation if requested. Results:During a 2-week period, we reviewed 2006 ECGs, corresponding to 524 unique patients, of whom 103 (19.7%) met the Situation Background Assessment Recommendation tool-defined criteria for QT prolongation. Compared with those without QT prolongation, these patients were more often in the intensive care unit (60 [58.3%] vs 149 [35.4%]) and more likely to be intubated (32 [31.1%] vs 76 [18.1%]). Fifty patients with QT prolongation (48.5%) had electrolyte abnormalities, 98 (95.1%) were on COVID-19-related QT-prolonging medications, and 62 (60.2%) were on 1-4 additional non-COVID-19-related QT-prolonging drugs. Electrophysiology recommendations were given to limit modifiable risk factors. No patient developed torsades de pointes. Conclusion:This process functioned efficiently, identified a high percentage of patients with QT prolongation, and led to relevant interventions. Arrhythmias were rare. No patient developed torsades de pointes.
| S-EPMC7200355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients.MethodsWe extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death.ResultsThe median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission.ConclusionsDuring the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.).
| S-EPMC7092819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China, and it spread rapidly. Since January 23, 2020, China has launched a series of unusual and strict measures, including the lockdown of Wuhan city to contain this highly contagious disease. We collected the epidemiological data to analyze the trend of this epidemic in China. Methods: We closely tracked the Chinese and global official websites to collect the epidemiological information about COVID-19. The number of total and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China was presented to illustrate the trend of this epidemic. Results: On January 23, 2020, 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in China. On February 6, 2020, there were 31,211 cases. By February 20, 2020, the number reached as high as 75,993. Most cases were distributed in and around Wuhan, Hubei province. Since January 23, 2020, the number of daily new cases in China except Hubei province reached a peak of 890 on the eleventh day and then it declined to a low level of 34 within two full-length incubation periods (28 days), and the number of daily new cases in Hubei also started to decrease on the twelfth day, from 3,156 on February 4, 2020 to 955 on February 15, 2020. Conclusion: The COVID-19 epidemic has been primarily contained in China. The battle against this epidemic in China has provided valuable experiences for the rest of the world. Strict measures need to be taken as earlier as possible to prevent its spread.
| S-EPMC7273499 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia is caused by the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has rapidly become a global public health concern. As the new type of betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 can spread across species and between populations and has a greater risk of transmission than other coronaviruses. To control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is vital to have a rapid and effective means of diagnosing asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and patients with COVID-19, an early isolation protocol for infected individuals, and effective treatments for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. In this review, we will summarize the novel diagnostic tools that are currently available for coronavirus, including imaging examinations and laboratory medicine by next-generation sequencing (NGS), real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) analysis, immunoassay for COVID-19, cytokine and T cell immunoassays, biochemistry and microbiology laboratory parameters in the blood of the patients with COVID-19, and a field-effect transistor-based biosensor of COVID-19. Specifically, we will discuss the effective detection rate and assay time for the rRT-PCR analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and the sensitivity and specificity of different antibody detection methods, such as colloidal gold and ELISA using specimen sources obtained from the respiratory tract, peripheral serum or plasma, and other bodily fluids. Such diagnostics will help scientists and clinicians develop appropriate strategies to combat COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8215441 | biostudies-literature