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Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is heterogeneous, with a paucity of risk stratification tools to assist with trial design. We aimed to develop and validate mortality prediction models for patients with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. DESIGN:Leveraging additional data collection from a preplanned ancillary study (Version 1) of the multinational Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology study, we identified predictors of mortality. Separate models were built for the entire Version 1 cohort, for the cohort excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths. Models were externally validated in a cohort of intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome patients from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. SETTING:The derivation cohort represented 100 centers worldwide; the validation cohort was from Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. PATIENTS:There were 624 and 640 subjects in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The model for the full cohort included immunocompromised status, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 score, day 0 vasopressor-inotrope score and fluid balance, and PaO2/FIO2 6 hours after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. This model had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.82), calibration, and internal validation. Models excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths also demonstrated good discrimination (all area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ? 0.84) and calibration. In the validation cohort, models for intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (including and excluding neurologic deaths) had excellent discrimination (both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ? 0.85), but poor calibration. After revision, the model for all intubated subjects remained miscalibrated, whereas the model excluding neurologic deaths showed perfect calibration. Mortality models also stratified ventilator-free days at 28 days in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS:We describe predictive models for mortality in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome using readily available variables from day 0 of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome which outperform severity of illness scores and which demonstrate utility for composite outcomes such as ventilator-free days. Models can assist with risk stratification for clinical trials.

SUBMITTER: Yehya N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7237024 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study.

Yehya Nadir N Harhay Michael O MO Klein Margaret J MJ Shein Steven L SL Piñeres-Olave Byron E BE Izquierdo Ledys L Sapru Anil A Emeriaud Guillaume G Spinella Philip C PC Flori Heidi R HR Dahmer Mary K MK Maddux Aline B AB Lopez-Fernandez Yolanda M YM Haileselassie Bereketeab B Hsing Deyin Doreen DD Chima Ranjit S RS Hassinger Amanda B AB Valentine Stacey L SL Rowan Courtney M CM Kneyber Martin C J MCJ Smith Lincoln S LS Khemani Robinder G RG Thomas Neal J NJ

Critical care medicine 20200601 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>Pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is heterogeneous, with a paucity of risk stratification tools to assist with trial design. We aimed to develop and validate mortality prediction models for patients with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.<h4>Design</h4>Leveraging additional data collection from a preplanned ancillary study (Version 1) of the multinational Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology study, we identified predi ...[more]

PMID: 32271186

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Investigations of acute respiratory distress syndrome in adults suggest hypoxemia is an uncommon cause of death. However, the epidemiology of death in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is not well characterized. We aimed to describe the cause, mode, and timing of death in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome nonsurvivors. We hypothesized that most deaths would be due to nonpulmonary factors, rather than hypoxemia. DESIGN:Retrospective, decedent-only analysis. SETTING:Two large, academic PICUs. PATIENTS:Nonsurvivors with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Of 798 subjects with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, there were 153 nonsurvivors (19% mortality). Median time to death was 6 days (interquartile range, 3-13 d) after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. Patients dying less than 7 days after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset had greater illness severity and worse oxygenation. Patients dying less than 7 days were more likely to die of a neurologic cause, including brain death. Patients dying greater than or equal to 7 days after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset were more commonly immunocompromised. Multisystem organ failure predominated in deaths greater than or equal to 7 days. Withdrawal of therapy was the most common mode of death at all timepoints, accounting for 66% of all deaths. Organ dysfunction was common at time of death, irrespective of cause of death. Refractory hypoxemia accounted for only a minority of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome deaths (20%). CONCLUSIONS:In pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, early deaths were due primarily to neurologic failure, whereas later deaths were more commonly due to multisystem organ failure. Deaths from neurologic causes accounted for a substantial portion of nonsurvivors. Refractory hypoxemia accounted for only a minority of deaths. Our study highlights limitations associated with using death as an endpoint in therapeutic pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome trials.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:In pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, lung injury is mediated by immune activation and severe inflammation. Therefore, we hypothesized that patients with elevated pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines would have higher mortality rates and that these biomarkers could improve risk stratification of poor outcomes. DESIGN:Multicenter prospective observational study. SETTING:We enrolled patients from five academic PICUs between 2008 and 2015. PATIENTS:Patients were 1 month to 18 years old, used noninvasive or invasive ventilation, and met the American European Consensus Conference definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:Eight proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines were measured on acute respiratory distress syndrome day 1 and correlated with mortality, ICU morbidity as measured by survivor Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score, and biomarkers of endothelial injury, including angiopoietin-2, von Willebrand Factor, and soluble thrombomodulin. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We measured biomarker levels in 194 patients, including 38 acute respiratory distress syndrome nonsurvivors. Interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-10, interleukin-18, and tumor necrosis factor-R2 were each strongly associated with all-cause mortality, multiple markers of ICU morbidity, and endothelial injury. A multiple logistic regression model incorporating oxygenation index, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-R2 was superior to a model of oxygenation index alone in predicting the composite outcome of mortality or severe morbidity (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.77 [0.70-0.83] vs 0.70 [0.62-0.77]; p = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS:In pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines are strongly associated with mortality, ICU morbidity, and biochemical evidence of endothelial injury. These cytokines significantly improve the ability of the oxygenation index to discriminate risk of mortality or severe morbidity and may allow for identification and enrollment of high-risk subgroups for future studies.

Project description:BackgroundPaediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS) is associated with high mortality in children, but until recently no paediatric-specific diagnostic criteria existed. The Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference (PALICC) definition was developed to overcome limitations of the Berlin definition, which was designed and validated for adults. We aimed to determine the incidence and outcomes of children who meet the PALICC definition of PARDS.MethodsIn this international, prospective, cross-sectional, observational study, 145 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) from 27 countries were recruited, and over a continuous 5 day period across 10 weeks all patients were screened for enrolment. Patients were included if they had a new diagnosis of PARDS that met PALICC criteria during the study week. Exclusion criteria included meeting PARDS criteria more than 24 h before screening, cyanotic heart disease, active perinatal lung disease, and preparation or recovery from a cardiac intervention. Data were collected on the PICU characteristics, patient demographics, and elements of PARDS (ie, PARDS risk factors, hypoxaemia severity metrics, type of ventilation), comorbidities, chest imaging, arterial blood gas measurements, and pulse oximetry. The primary outcome was PICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included 90 day mortality, duration of invasive mechanical and non-invasive ventilation, and cause of death.FindingsBetween May 9, 2016, and June 16, 2017, during the 10 study weeks, 23 280 patients were admitted to participating PICUs, of whom 744 (3·2%) were identified as having PARDS. 95% (708 of 744) of patients had complete data for analysis, with 17% (121 of 708; 95% CI 14-20) mortality, whereas only 32% (230 of 708) of patients met Berlin criteria with 27% (61 of 230) mortality. Based on hypoxaemia severity at PARDS diagnosis, mortality was similar among those who were non-invasively ventilated and with mild or moderate PARDS (10-15%), but higher for those with severe PARDS (33% [54 of 165; 95% CI 26-41]). 50% (80 of 160) of non-invasively ventilated patients with PARDS were subsequently intubated, with 25% (20 of 80; 95% CI 16-36) mortality. By use of PALICC PARDS definition, severity of PARDS at 6 h after initial diagnosis (area under the curve [AUC] 0·69, 95% CI 0·62-0·76) discriminates PICU mortality better than severity at PARDS diagnosis (AUC 0·64, 0·58-0·71), and outperforms Berlin severity groups at 6 h (0·64, 0·58-0·70; p=0·01).InterpretationThe PALICC definition identified more children as having PARDS than the Berlin definition, and PALICC PARDS severity groupings improved the stratification of mortality risk, particularly when applied 6 h after PARDS diagnosis. The PALICC PARDS framework should be considered for use in future epidemiological and therapeutic research among children with PARDS.FundingUniversity of Southern California Clinical Translational Science Institute, Sainte Justine Children's Hospital, University of Montreal, Canada, Réseau en Santé Respiratoire du Fonds de Recherche Quebec-Santé, and Children's Hospital Los Angeles, Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Physiologic dead space is associated with mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome, but its measurement is cumbersome. Alveolar dead space fraction relies on the difference between arterial and end-tidal carbon dioxide (alveolar dead space fraction = (PaCO2 - PetCO2) / PaCO2). We aimed to assess the relationship between alveolar dead space fraction and mortality in a cohort of children meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome (both the Berlin 2012 and the American-European Consensus Conference 1994 acute lung injury) and pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (as defined by the Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference in 2015). DESIGN:Secondary analysis of a prospective, observational cohort. SETTING:Tertiary care, university affiliated PICU. PATIENTS:Invasively ventilated children with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Of the 283 children with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, 266 had available PetCO2. Alveolar dead space fraction was lower in survivors (median 0.13; interquartile range, 0.06-0.23) than nonsurvivors (0.31; 0.19-0.42; p < 0.001) at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset, but not 24 hours after (survivors 0.12 [0.06-0.18], nonsurvivors 0.14 [0.06-0.25], p = 0.430). Alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset discriminated mortality with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85; p < 0.001), better than either initial oxygenation index or PaO2/FIO2. In multivariate analysis, alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset was independently associated with mortality, after adjustment for severity of illness, immunocompromised status, and organ failures. CONCLUSIONS:Alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset discriminates mortality and is independently associated with nonsurvival. Alveolar dead space fraction represents a single, useful, readily obtained clinical biomarker reflective of pulmonary and nonpulmonary variables associated with mortality.

Project description:ObjectivesCirculating nucleosomes and their component histones have been implicated as pathogenic in sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome in adults. However, their role in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is unknown.DesignWe performed a prospective cohort study in children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with plasma collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. We associated nucleosome levels with severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome and with nonpulmonary organ failures and tested for association of nucleosomes with PICU mortality and ventilator-free days at 28 days in univariate and multivariable analyses. We also performed proteomics of DNA-bound plasma proteins in a matched case-control study of septic children with and without acute respiratory distress syndrome in order to identify specific histone proteins elevated in acute respiratory distress syndrome.SettingLarge academic tertiary-care PICU.PatientsIntubated children meeting Berlin criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe enrolled 333 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with 69 nonsurvivors (21%). Plasma nucleosomes were correlated with acute respiratory distress syndrome severity and with the number of nonpulmonary organ failures at acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. Nucleosomes were higher (p < 0.001) in nonsurvivors (0.40 [interquartile range, 0.20-0.71] arbitrary units) relative to survivors (0.10 [interquartile range, 0.04-0.25] arbitrary units). Nucleosomes were associated with PICU mortality in multivariable analysis (adjusted odds ratio 1.84 per 1 sd increase; 95% CI, 1.38-2.45; p < 0.001). Nucleosomes were also associated with a lower probability of being extubated alive by day 28 after multivariable adjustment (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.88; p = 0.001). Proteomic analysis demonstrated higher levels of the core nucleosome histones H2A, H2B, H3, and H4 in septic children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, relative to septic children without acute respiratory distress syndrome.ConclusionsPlasma nucleosomes are associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome severity, nonpulmonary organ failures, and worse outcomes in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Project description:Importance: Monocytes are plastic cells that assume different polarization states that can either promote inflammation or tissue repair and inflammation resolution. Polarized monocytes are partially defined by their transcriptional profiles that are influenced by environmental stimuli. The airway monocyte response in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS) is undefined. Objectives: To identify differentially expressed genes and networks using a novel transcriptomic reporter assay with donor monocytes exposed to the airway fluid of intubated children with and at-risk for PARDS. To determine differences in gene expression at two time points using the donor monocyte assay exposed to airway fluid from intubated children with PARDS obtained 48-96 hours following initial tracheal aspirate sampling. Design, Setting and Participants: In vitro pilot study carried out using airway fluid supernatant from 57 children: 44 children with PARDS and 13 children at-risk for PARDS. Main Outcomes and Measures: We performed bulk RNA sequencing using a transcriptomic reporter assay of monocytes exposed to airway fluid from intubated children to discover gene networks differentiating PARDS from at-risk for PARDS. We also report differences in gene expression in children with PARDS 48-96 hours following initial tracheal aspirate sampling. Results: We found that interleukin (IL)-10, -4, and -13, cytokine/chemokine signaling, and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype are upregulated in monocytes exposed to airway fluid from intubated children with PARDS compared to those at-risk for PARDS. Signaling by NOTCH, histone deacetylation/acetylation, DNA methylation, chromatin modifications (B-WICH complex), and RNA polymerase I transcription and its associated regulatory apparatus were upregulation in children with PARDS 48-96 hours following initial tracheal aspirate sampling. Conclusions and Relevance: We identified gene networks important to the PARDS airway immune response using bulk RNA sequencing from a monocyte reporter assay that exposed monocytes to airway fluid from intubated children with and at-risk for PARDS. Mechanistic investigations are needed to validate our findings.

Dataset Information

Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study.

Publications

Predicting Mortality in Children With Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology Study.

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