Dataset Information

Osteoporotic hip fracture prediction from risk factors available in administrative claims data - A machine learning approach.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Hip fractures are among the most frequently occurring fragility fractures in older adults, associated with a loss of quality of life, high mortality, and high use of healthcare resources. The aim was to apply the superlearner method to predict osteoporotic hip fractures using administrative claims data and to compare its performance to established methods. METHODS:We devided claims data of 288,086 individuals aged 65 years and older without care level into a training (80%) and a validation set (20%). Subsequently, we trained a superlearner algorithm that considered both regression and machine learning algorithms (e.g., support vector machines, RUSBoost) on a large set of clinical risk factors. Mean squared error and measures of discrimination and calibration were employed to assess prediction performance. RESULTS:All algorithms used in the analysis showed similar performance with an AUC ranging from 0.66 to 0.72 in the training and 0.65 to 0.70 in the validation set. Superlearner showed good discrimination in the training set but poorer discrimination and calibration in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS:The superlearner achieved similar predictive performance compared to the individual algorithms included. Nevertheless, in the presence of non-linearity and complex interactions, this method might be a flexible alternative to be considered for risk prediction in large datasets.

SUBMITTER: Engels A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7237034 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Osteoporotic hip fracture prediction from risk factors available in administrative claims data - A machine learning approach.

Engels Alexander A Reber Katrin C KC Lindlbauer Ivonne I Rapp Kilian K Büchele Gisela G Klenk Jochen J Meid Andreas A Becker Clemens C König Hans-Helmut HH

PloS one 20200519 5

<h4>Objective</h4>Hip fractures are among the most frequently occurring fragility fractures in older adults, associated with a loss of quality of life, high mortality, and high use of healthcare resources. The aim was to apply the superlearner method to predict osteoporotic hip fractures using administrative claims data and to compare its performance to established methods.<h4>Methods</h4>We devided claims data of 288,086 individuals aged 65 years and older without care level into a training (80 ...[more]

PMID: 32428007

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Project description:Screening for osteoporosis with bone mineral density (BMD) is recommended for older adults. It is unclear whether repeating a BMD screening test improves fracture risk assessment.To determine whether changes in BMD after 4 years provide additional information on fracture risk beyond baseline BMD and to quantify the change in fracture risk classification after a second BMD measure.Population-based cohort study involving 310 men and 492 women from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study with 2 measures of femoral neck BMD taken from 1987 through 1999.Risk of hip or major osteoporotic fracture through 2009 or 12 years following the second BMD measure.Mean age was 74.8 years. The mean (SD) BMD change was -0.6% per year (1.8%). Throughout a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 76 participants experienced an incident hip fracture and 113 participants experienced a major osteoporotic fracture. Annual percent BMD change per SD decrease was associated with risk of hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.78]) and major osteoporotic fracture (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.45]) after adjusting for baseline BMD. At 10 years' follow-up, 1 SD decrease in annual percent BMD change compared with the mean BMD change was associated with 3.9 excess hip fractures per 100 persons. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.78) for the baseline BMD model compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.75) for the BMD percent change model. Moreover, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance (AUC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66 to 0.79]). Using the net reclassification index, a second BMD measure increased the proportion of participants reclassified as high risk of hip fracture by 3.9% (95% CI, -2.2% to 9.9%), whereas it decreased the proportion classified as low risk by -2.2% (95% CI, -4.5% to 0.1%).In untreated men and women of mean age 75 years, a second BMD measure after 4 years did not meaningfully improve the prediction of hip or major osteoporotic fracture. Repeating a BMD measure within 4 years to improve fracture risk stratification may not be necessary in adults this age untreated for osteoporosis.

Project description:The osteoporotic hip fracture is associated with a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and health expenditure. The Chilean health system is made up of a mixed care system, with the public system called FONASA and the private system called ISAPRE. The people with lower incomes are listed on FONASA and correspond to 80.8% of the population. The aims of this study were to describe the incidence of hip fracture in the Chilean population from the age of 45 years and to estimate the direct medical cost of this disease. The records of the Department of the Health Statistics and Information of the Ministry of Health were used, from which the number of national hospital discharges due to hip fractures was obtained (codes S720, S721, and S722 of the ICD-10), in adults aged 45 years or older, by sex, from 2006 to 2017. The cost of osteoporotic hip fracture treatment in the public health system was obtained from the data of the surgical treatment according to the payment method associated with diagnosis (PAD bonus). A surgical intervention budget was used in a private clinic to calculate the direct cost of osteoporotic hip fracture in the private system. Between 2006 and 2017, the number of hospital discharges due to osteoporotic hip fracture in adults aged 45 years and older has increased progressively, registering 9.583 hospital discharges for this cause in 2017, which corresponds to 50% more than those recorded in 2006, with a 3?:?1 F/M ratio. The mean annual rate of hip fractures is 148.7 per 100,000 inhabitants aged above 45 years. The individual cost of managing an osteoporotic hip fracture in the public system was USD$ 3,919, and USD$ 9,092 in the private health system. The incidence of hip fracture was comparable with data from Southern European countries and from neighboring countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay. Hospitalization cost of hip fracture in Chile was 34 million USD per year. Hip fracture constitutes a serious healthcare problem in Chile, and efforts for the prevention and management of osteoporosis are needed.

Project description:BACKGROUND:It is known that mortality after hip fracture increases compared to the general population; the trend in mortality is a controversial issue. The objective of this study is to examine incidence, trends, and factors associated with mortality in patients with osteoporotic hip fractures. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort study that uses the Registry for Hospital Discharges of the National Health System of our hospital. Patients older than 45 having an osteoporotic hip fracture between 1999 and 2015 were identified. Demographic data and comorbidities were obtained. A survival analysis was performed (Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier). Incidence rate, standardized death rate (SDR), trend (Poisson regression), and risk (hazard ratio) were calculated. RESULTS:During 1999-2015, in our hospital, there were a total of 3992 patients admitted due to osteoporotic hip fracture. Out of these 3992 patients, 3109 patients (77.9%) were women with an average age of 84.47 years (SD 8.45) and 803 (22.1%) were men with an average age of 81.64 years (SD 10.08). The cumulative incidence of mortality was 69.38%. The cumulative mortality rate for 12 months was 33%. The annual mortality was 144.9/1000 patients/year. The 1-year mortality rate increased significantly by 2% per year (IRR 1.020, CI95% 1.008-1.033). The median overall survival was 886 days (CI95% 836-951). The probability of mortality density for a period of 10 years following a hip fracture was 16% for women and 25% for men (first 90 days). The SDR was 8.3 (CI95% 7.98-8.59). Variables that showed statistically significant association with mortality were aged over 75, masculine, institutionalization, mild to severe liver disease, chronic kidney disease, COPD, dementia, heart failure, diabetes, the Charlson Index > 2 , presence of vision disorders and hearing impairment, incontinence, and Downton scale. CONCLUSIONS:For the last 17 years, an increase of mortality for patients with hip fracture and a higher mortality rate in men than in women were observed. Institutionalization combined with comorbidities is associated with a higher mortality.

Dataset Information

Osteoporotic hip fracture prediction from risk factors available in administrative claims data - A machine learning approach.

Publications

Osteoporotic hip fracture prediction from risk factors available in administrative claims data - A machine learning approach.

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