Project description:Background:After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th, 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic. Methods:We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions. Results:In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th, 2020. This corresponds to an increase of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 between March 1st and 13th, to 0.25 between March 13th to 22nd. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and therefore, unless further public health interventions are escalated in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. However, the case number may be reduced to 4000 if escalated public health interventions could instantly reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy. Interpretation:Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3-4 days.
Project description:In March 2020, at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, state-funded community mental health service programs (CMHSP) in Michigan, organized into 10 regions known as a "Prepaid Inpatient Health Plan" (PIHP), grappled with the task of developing a modified plan of operations, while complying with mitigation and social distancing guidelines. With the premise that psychiatric care is essential healthcare, a panel of physician and non-physician leaders representing Region 5, met and developed recommendations, and feedback iteratively, using an adaptive modified Delphi methodology. This facilitated the development of a service and patient prioritization document to triage and to deliver behavioral health services in 21 counties which comprised Region 5 PIHP. Our procedures were organized around the principles of mitigation and contingency management, like physical health service delivery paradigms. The purpose of this manuscript is to share region 5 PIHP's response; a process which has allowed continuity of care during these unprecedented times.
Project description:ObjectivesThe First Nations people experience significant challenges that may influence the ability to follow COVID-19 public health directives on-reserve. This study aimed to describe experiences, perceptions and circumstances of an Alberta First Nations community, related to COVID-19 public health advice. We hypothesized that many challenges ensued when following and implementing advice from public health experts.MethodsWith First Nations leadership and staff, an online cross-sectional survey was deployed between April 24 and June 25, 2020. It assessed the appropriateness of public health advice to curb COVID-19 within this large First Nations community. Both quantitative and qualitative data were captured and described.ResultsA total of 106 adults living on-reserve responded; over 80% were female. Difficulty accessing food was significant by employment status (p = 0.0004). Those people with lower income found accessing food (p = 0.0190) and getting essential medical care (p = 0.0060), clothing (p = 0.0280) and transportation (p = 0.0027) more difficult. Some respondents described lost income associated with COVID-19 experiences, as well as difficulties accessing essential supplies. Respondents found "proper handwashing" most easy (98%) and "keeping a distance of 2 m from others" most difficult (23%). Many respondents found following public health advice within their personal domain easy and put "family safety" first but experienced some difficulties when navigating social aspects and obligations, particularly when unable to control the actions of others. People stated wanting clear information, but were sometimes critical of the COVID-19 response.ConclusionFirst Nations people face many additional challenges within the COVID-19 response, driven in part by ongoing issues related to significant societal, economic, and systemic factors.
Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus- 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), has posed a great public health threat to the global community as a pandemic. The origin of the virus has been linked to animals, through a yet-to-be-identified intermediate host. The disease is transmitted to humans mainly through inhalation or contact with infected droplets. The variable clinical presentation of COVID-19 includes fever, cough, sore throat, breathlessness, fatigue and malaise; however, cutaneous, ocular, neurological, and gastrointestinal manifestations have also been reported. There is an urgent need to strengthen One Health surveillance, intervention, and management strategies to understand the ecology of coronaviruses and to prevent epidemics in the future. Global attention toward the development of treatments, immunotherapies, vaccines, and control options to combat the COVID-19 pandemic has been on an increasing trend. Here, we review the current epidemiological status, public health concerns, and mitigation strategies for COVID-19.
Project description:Background Community attachments are thought to promote adolescents’ engagement in public health behaviors. To date, past research has exclusively examined the social benefits of community attachments among adolescents in the United States and less is known about these benefits among youth in low-income adolescent-dense countries such as Pakistan. Objective The present study examined associations between Pakistani adolescents’ community attachments and COVID-19 public health behaviors, including social distancing, disinfecting, hoarding, news monitoring. Method Adolescents living in Pakistan (N = 1,110; 13–18 years; M = 16.70) reported on their COVID-19 public health behavior (social distancing, disinfecting behaviors, hoarding behaviors, news monitoring) and community attachments (social responsibility values, social trust, self-interest values). Results Greater social responsibility values were associated with greater social distancing (B = .09, p = .009) and disinfecting behavior (B = .39, p < .001). Greater social trust was significantly associated with greater disinfecting (B = .09, p < .001) and greater hoarding behaviors (B = .07, p = .001) and greater self-interest values were associated with lower social distancing (B = -.06, p = .010), greater disinfecting (B = .15, p < .001), and greater hoarding behaviors (B = .11, p = .001). Conclusion Results from this study demonstrate that community attachments may play an important role in guiding adolescents’ public health behavior in Pakistan. These findings extend past research and contribute to an inclusive and culturally sensitive model of the benefits of adolescents’ community attachments for public heatlh. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10566-021-09657-7.
Project description:IntroductionCommunity mitigation strategies (CMS) have demonstrated to be effective in the reduction of transmission and incidence of COVID-19, especially in the population with symptoms associated with the disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the presence of COVID-19 symptoms and adherence to CMS in Latin American adults.MethodsWe carried out a secondary analysis of a database developed by the University of Maryland and Facebook social network during the COVID-19 pandemic. We included Latin American adults that used the Facebook platform and participated in a survey conducted from April 23 to May 23, 2020. The principal outcome variable was reported compliance with the three main CMS (physical distancing, use of face masks, and hand washing). The exposure variable included symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 defined as the presence of three or more symptoms of an acute clinical case of COVID-19. We performed generalized linear models of the Poisson family with a logarithmic link function to evaluate the association between the presence of COVID-19 symptoms and reported compliance with CMS. We calculated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).ResultsWe analyzed 1,310,690 adults from Latin America; 48.1% were male and 42.9% were under 35 years of age. The prevalence of suspicious symptoms of COVID-19 was 18.5% and reported compliance with the three CMS was 45.3%. The countries with the highest proportion of reported compliance with the three CMS were Peru, Bolivia and Panama, while those with the lowest reported compliance were Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. In the adjusted model, people with suspicious symptoms for COVID-19 had a 14% lower compliance with the three CMS (aPR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.85-0.87; p < 0.001).ConclusionsLess than half of the participants complied with the CMS, and those presenting suspicious symptoms for COVID-19 had lower reported compliance with the three CMS.
Project description:We report the results of a national survey conducted to help public health officials understand the public's response to community mitigation interventions for a severe outbreak of pandemic influenza. Survey results suggest that if community mitigation measures are instituted, most respondents would comply with recommendations but would be challenged to do so if their income or job were severely compromised. The results also indicate that community mitigation measures could cause problems for persons with lower incomes and for racial and ethnic minorities. Twenty-four percent of respondents said that they would not have anyone available to take care of them if they became sick with pandemic influenza. Given these results, planning and public engagement will be needed to encourage the public to be prepared.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:The emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent pandemic has led to the most substantive large-scale, open, and public social discussion of epidemiology and science in recent history. In the United States (US), extensive debate has ensued as to the risk posed by the disease, whether the health system is prepared to manage a high volume of critical cases, whether any number of public health responses are necessary and appropriate, and the appropriate ways to prevent, manage, and treat the pandemic. I hypothesized that the interplay between scientists, policymakers, and the public in an open forum was associated with increased overall public trust in science and scientists, but that this was moderated by political orientation and/or religious commitment. In the context of a public health emergency, it is important to understand the degree to which science and scientists are trusted to produce information that can provide reassurance and also can explain the details of a highly complex event such as a viral pandemic while providing actionable recommendations. STUDY DESIGN:The study design was analytic cross-sectional. METHODS:Data were obtained on March 17-18, 2020, from a sample of 242 US-based Amazon Mechanical Turk users. Respondents completed a 49-question survey consisting of key sociodemographic variables, political affiliation, religious commitment, and two iterations of the Trust in Science and Scientist Inventory (one for March 2020, and one for December 2019 using retrospective recall). Changes in mean level of trust and interaction with political affiliation and/or religious commitment were assessed using mixed ANOVA via the general linear model. RESULTS:On a scale from 1 (low trust) to 5 (high trust), the mean level of trust in science and scientists was static; 3.82 in December 2019 and 3.81 in March 2020. Conservative political orientation and high religious commitment were associated with significantly less overall trust in science; the interaction effect suggested that liberal trust in science decreased slightly from December 2019 to March 2020, whereas conservative trust increased slightly. CONCLUSIONS:Counter to my expectations, the overall level of trust in science remained static after the first several months of COVID-19 in the US, although there is some evidence that political orientation was associated with magnitude and directionality of change in trust. Continued examination of these trends is important for understanding public response to epidemiologic recommendations.
Project description:ImportanceBlack and Latinx communities have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, yet little work has sought to understand their perspectives.ObjectiveTo explore the experiences of Black and Latinx communities during the pandemic to better understand their perspectives on COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (eg, mask wearing), testing, and vaccines.Design, setting, and participantsIn this community-engaged qualitative study conducted with 18 community-based organizations and 4 health care organizations between November 19, 2020, and February 5, 2021, in New Jersey counties severely affected by the pandemic, group and individual interviews were used to purposively sample 111 Black and Latinx individuals. A total of 13 group interviews were organized by race/ethnicity and language: 4 English-speaking groups with Black participants (n = 34), 3 Spanish-speaking groups with Latinx participants (n = 24), and 4 English-speaking groups with Black and Latinx participants (n = 36). To understand the views of health care workers from these communities, 2 additional groups (n = 9) were convened and supplemented with individual interviews.Main outcomes and measuresDescription of Black and Latinx participants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic and their perspectives on mitigation behaviors, testing, and vaccines.ResultsThe study included 111 participants (87 women [78.4%]; median age, 43 years [range, 18-93 years]). Participants described the devastating effects of the pandemic on themselves, loved ones, and their community. Their experiences were marked by fear, illness, loss, and separation. These experiences motivated intense information seeking, mitigation behaviors, and testing. Nevertheless, vaccine skepticism was high across all groups. Participants did not trust the vaccine development process and wanted clearer information. Black participants expressed that they did not want to be subjects of experiments.Conclusions and relevanceThe remaining unknowns about new vaccines need to be acknowledged and described for Black and Latinx communities to make informed decisions. Ultimately, scientists and public officials need to work transparently to address unanswered questions and work collaboratively with trusted community leaders and health professionals to foster partnered approaches, rather than focusing on marketing campaigns, to eliminate vaccine skepticism.