Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dehning J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7239331 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.
Dehning Jonas J Zierenberg Johannes J Spitzner F Paul FP Wibral Michael M Neto Joao Pinheiro JP Wilczek Michael M Priesemann Viola V
Science (New York, N.Y.) 20200515 6500
As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A major challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they change when first interventions show an effect. By combining an established epidemiological model with Bayesian inference, we analyzed the time dependence of the effective growth rate of new inf ...[more]
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