Dataset Information

Projected Streamflow in the Kurau River Basin of Western Malaysia under Future Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Climate change-induced spatial and temporal variability of stremflow has significant implications for hydrological processes and water supplies at basin scale. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Kurau River Basin in Malaysia using a Climate-Smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) to predict future climate sequences. For this, we used 25 reliazations consisting from 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The generated climate sequences were used as input to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate projected changes in hydrological processes in the basin over the period 2021-2080. The model performed fairly well for the Kurau River Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) of 0.65, 0.65 and -3.0, respectively for calibration period (1981-1998) and 0.60, 0.59 and -4.6, respectively for validation period (1996-2005). Future projections over 2021-2080 period show an increase in rainfall during August to January (relatively wet season, called the main irrigation season) but a decrease in rainfall during February to July (relatively dry season, called the off season). Temperature projections show increase in both the maximum and minimum temperatures under the three RCP scenarios, with a maximum increase of 2.5?°C by 2021-2080 relative to baseline period of 1976-2005 under RCP8.5 scenario. The model predicted reduced streamflow under all RCP scenarios compared to the baseline period. Compared to 2021-2050 period, the projected streamflow will be higher during 2051-2080 period by 1.5 m3/s except in February for RCP8.5. The highest streamflow is predicted during August to December for both future periods under RCP8.5. The seasonal changes in streamflow range between -2.8% and -4.3% during the off season, and between 0% (nil) and -3.8% during the main season. The assessment of the impacts of climatic variabilities on the available water resources is necessary to identify adaptation strategies. It is supposed that such assessment on the Kurau River Basin under changing climate would improve operation policy for the Bukit Merah reservoir located at downstream of the basin. Thus, the predicted streamflow of the basin would be of importance to quantify potential impacts of climate change on the Bukit Merah reservoir and to determine the best possible operational strategies for irrigation release.

SUBMITTER: Adib MNM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7239930 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected Streamflow in the Kurau River Basin of Western Malaysia under Future Climate Scenarios.

Adib Muhammad Nasir Mohd MNM Rowshon Md Kamal MK Mojid Md Abdul MA Habibu Ismail I

Scientific reports 20200520 1

Climate change-induced spatial and temporal variability of stremflow has significant implications for hydrological processes and water supplies at basin scale. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Kurau River Basin in Malaysia using a Climate-Smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) to predict future climate sequences. For this, we used 25 reliazations consisting from 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, ...[more]

PMID: 32433561

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Project description:In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.

Project description:BACKGROUND:There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. OBJECTIVES:We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. METHODS:We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. RESULTS:In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. CONCLUSIONS:Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.

Dataset Information

Projected Streamflow in the Kurau River Basin of Western Malaysia under Future Climate Scenarios.

Publications

Projected Streamflow in the Kurau River Basin of Western Malaysia under Future Climate Scenarios.

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