Dataset Information

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space-time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll "a" for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65, and high chlorophyll "a" concentrations in the lower part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.

SUBMITTER: Orlinska-Wozniak P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8384234 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.

Orlińska-Woźniak Paulina P Szalińska Ewa E Jakusik Ewa E Bojanowski Damian D Wilk Paweł P

Environmental science & technology 20210803 16

Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space-time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll "a" for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for t ...[more]

PMID: 34343428

Similar Datasets

Project description:Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

Project description:Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.

Project description:The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

Dataset Information

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.

Publications

Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets