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Modelling Survival of Patients Treated with Adjuvant Nivolumab Who Have Melanoma with Lymph Node Involvement or Metastatic Disease After Complete Resection.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Nivolumab demonstrated significant recurrence-free survival (RFS) gains versus ipilimumab in the CheckMate-238 trial, whereas the CA184-029 trial showed superior RFS gains for ipilimumab versus placebo. No head-to-head trial data were available to compare the efficacy of nivolumab to that of observation, so indirect treatment comparisons were required. Additionally, overall survival (OS) data were not available from CheckMate-238, and the clinical pathway for melanoma has changed significantly over the last decade. Four modelling options were developed using different methods and evidence sources to estimate OS and the impact of nivolumab on predicted life-years in the adjuvant setting; however, this article focuses on two primary methods. METHODS:RFS for nivolumab and observation were informed by a patient-level data meta-regression. The first model was a partitioned survival model, where the parametric OS curve for observation was derived from CA184-029 and nivolumab OS was based on a surrogacy relationship between RFS and OS specific to adjuvant melanoma. The other option used a state-transition model to estimate post-recurrence survival using different data sources. RESULTS:The modelling options estimated different OS for both nivolumab and observation but demonstrated at least a 32% increase in life-years gained for nivolumab versus observation. CONCLUSION:This analysis demonstrated the difficulties in modelling within the adjuvant setting. Each model produced different survival projections, showing the need to explore different techniques to address the extent of uncertainty. This also highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of RFS in the long term in a setting where the aim of treatment is to remain disease free.

SUBMITTER: Batteson R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7248152 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling Survival of Patients Treated with Adjuvant Nivolumab Who Have Melanoma with Lymph Node Involvement or Metastatic Disease After Complete Resection.

Batteson Rachael R Hart Rose R Hemstock Matthew M Gooden Kyna K Kotapati Srividya S Roze Stephane S Lee Dawn D Amadi Adenike A

PharmacoEconomics - open 20200601 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>Nivolumab demonstrated significant recurrence-free survival (RFS) gains versus ipilimumab in the CheckMate-238 trial, whereas the CA184-029 trial showed superior RFS gains for ipilimumab versus placebo. No head-to-head trial data were available to compare the efficacy of nivolumab to that of observation, so indirect treatment comparisons were required. Additionally, overall survival (OS) data were not available from CheckMate-238, and the clinical pathway for melanoma has ch ...[more]

PMID: 31587138

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Project description:ImportanceRegional nodal irradiation (RNI) for node-positive breast cancer reduces distant metastases and improves survival, albeit with limited reduction in regional nodal recurrences. The mechanism by which RNI robustly reduces distant metastases while modestly influencing nodal recurrences (ie, the presumed target of RNI) remains unclear.ObjectiveTo determine whether some distant metastases putatively arise from occult regional nodal disease and whether regional recurrences otherwise remain largely undetected until an advanced cancer presentation.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study examined patients presenting with de novo stage IV breast cancer to the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, New York, from 2006 to 2018. Medical records were reviewed to ascertain clinicopathological parameters, including estrogen receptor status and survival. Pretreatment positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) imaging was reviewed to ascertain the extent of regional nodal involvement at metastatic diagnosis using standard nodal assessment criteria. A subset underwent regional lymph node biopsy for diagnostic confirmation and served to validate the radiographic nodal assessment. Data analysis was performed from October 2019 to February 2020.ExposuresUntreated metastatic breast cancer.Main outcome and measuresThe primary outcome was the likelihood of regional nodal involvement at the time of metastatic breast cancer presentation and was determined by reviewing pretreatment PET-CT imaging and lymph node biopsy findings.ResultsAmong 597 women (median [interquartile range] age, 53 [44-65] years) with untreated metastatic breast cancer, 512 (85.8%) exhibited regional lymph node involvement by PET-CT or nodal biopsy, 509 (85%) had involvement of axillary level I, 328 (55%) had involvement in axillary level II, 136 (23%) had involvement in axillary level III, 101 (17%) had involvement in the supraclavicular fossa, and 96 (16%) had involvement in the internal mammary chain. Lymph node involvement was more prevalent among estrogen receptor-negative tumors (92.4%) than estrogen receptor-positive tumors (83.6%). Nodal involvement at the time of metastatic diagnosis was not associated with overall survival.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that a majority of patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer harbor regional lymph node disease at presentation, consistent with the hypothesis that regional involvement may precede metastatic dissemination. This is in alignment with the findings of landmark trials suggesting that RNI reduces distant recurrences. It is possible that this distant effect of RNI may act via eradication of occult regional disease prior to systemic seeding. The challenges inherent in detecting isolated nodal disease (which is typically asymptomatic) may account for the more modest observed benefit of RNI on regional recurrences. Alternative explanations of nodal involvement that arises concurrently or after metastatic dissemination remain possible, but do not otherwise explain the association of RNI with distant recurrence.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Nivolumab is an anti-PD1 checkpoint inhibitor active in patients with advanced melanoma and as adjuvant therapy in high-risk metastatic melanoma patients. METHODS:In this single-center retrospective analysis, we investigated the CD73 enzyme activity in patients with metastatic melanoma stage IV and its correlation with the response to nivolumab. The soluble CD73 (sCD73) enzyme activity was measured in the serum of 37 melanoma patients before receiving nivolumab and the Harrel's C index was used to find the best cut-off for this biomarker. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the prognostic value of CD73 enzyme activity for survival and progression-free survival. RESULTS:Our results show that high levels of sCD73 enzyme activity were significantly associated with poor overall survival and progression-free survival in patients with metastatic melanoma. The median progression-free survival was 2.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.3] in patients with high sCD73 enzyme activity (> 27.8 pmol/min/mg protein), and 14.2 months (95% CI 4.6-23.8) in patients with lower CD73 enzyme activity, when patients were follow-up for a median of 24 months range. The median overall survival was not reached in patients with low sCD73 activity (< 27.8 pmol/min/mg protein) compared with 6.1 months (95% CI 0-14.8) in patients with higher sCD73 activity. In multivariate analyses, the sCD73 enzyme activity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for overall survival and progression-free survival. Elevated basal levels of sCD73 enzyme activity, before starting nivolumab treatment, were associated with lower response rates to therapy. CONCLUSIONS:We observed a significant association between the activity of sCD73 in the blood and clinical outcomes in patients with metastatic melanoma stage IV, receiving nivolumab. Although our results need to be confirmed and validated, we suggest that sCD73 might be used as serologic prognostic biomarker. Potentially evaluating sCD73 enzyme activity in the peripheral blood before treatment could help to estimate the response to nivolumab.

Dataset Information

Modelling Survival of Patients Treated with Adjuvant Nivolumab Who Have Melanoma with Lymph Node Involvement or Metastatic Disease After Complete Resection.

Publications

Modelling Survival of Patients Treated with Adjuvant Nivolumab Who Have Melanoma with Lymph Node Involvement or Metastatic Disease After Complete Resection.

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