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Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

ABSTRACT: The natural history of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is variable and prediction of individual prognosis challenging. The inability to reliably predict prognosis at diagnosis has important implications for informed decision making especially in relation to disease modifying therapies. We conducted a systematic review in order to collate, describe and assess the methodological quality of published prediction models in RRMS. We searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full text for eligibility and assessed risk of bias. Studies reporting development or validation of prediction models for RRMS in adults were included. Data collection was guided by the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews (CHARMS) and applicability and methodological quality assessment by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). 30 studies were included in the review. Applicability was assessed as high risk of concern in 27 studies. Risk of bias was assessed as high for all studies. The single most frequently included predictor was baseline EDSS (n = 11). T2 Lesion volume or number and brain atrophy were each retained in seven studies. Five studies included external validation and none included impact analysis. Although a number of prediction models for RRMS have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and lack external validation and impact analysis, restricting their application to routine clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Brown FS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7250448 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

Brown Fraser S FS Glasmacher Stella A SA Kearns Patrick K A PKA MacDougall Niall N Hunt David D Connick Peter P Chandran Siddharthan S

PloS one 20200526 5

The natural history of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is variable and prediction of individual prognosis challenging. The inability to reliably predict prognosis at diagnosis has important implications for informed decision making especially in relation to disease modifying therapies. We conducted a systematic review in order to collate, describe and assess the methodological quality of published prediction models in RRMS. We searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science. Two review ...[more]

PMID: 32453803

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Project description:Myelin-sensitive MRI such as magnetization transfer imaging has been widely used in multiple sclerosis. The influence of methodology and differences in disease subtype on imaging findings is, however, not well established. Here, we systematically review magnetization transfer brain imaging findings in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We examine how methodological differences, disease effects and their interaction influence magnetization transfer imaging measures. Articles published before 06/01/2021 were retrieved from online databases (PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science) with search terms including 'magnetization transfer' and 'brain' for systematic review, according to a pre-defined protocol. Only studies that used human in vivo quantitative magnetization transfer imaging in adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (with or without healthy controls) were included. Additional data from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis subjects acquired in other studies comprising mixed disease subtypes were included in meta-analyses. Data including sample size, MRI acquisition protocol parameters, treatments and clinical findings were extracted and qualitatively synthesized. Where possible, effect sizes were calculated for meta-analyses to determine magnetization transfer (i) differences between patients and healthy controls; (ii) longitudinal change and (iii) relationships with clinical disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Eighty-six studies met inclusion criteria. MRI acquisition parameters varied widely, and were also underreported. The majority of studies examined the magnetization transfer ratio in white matter, but magnetization transfer metrics, brain regions examined and results were heterogeneous. The analysis demonstrated a risk of bias due to selective reporting and small sample sizes. The pooled random-effects meta-analysis across all brain compartments revealed magnetization transfer ratio was 1.17 per cent units (95% CI -1.42 to -0.91) lower in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis than healthy controls (z-value: -8.99, P < 0.001, 46 studies). Linear mixed-model analysis did not show a significant longitudinal change in magnetization transfer ratio across all brain regions [β = 0.12 (-0.56 to 0.80), t-value = 0.35, P = 0.724, 14 studies] or normal-appearing white matter alone [β = 0.037 (-0.14 to 0.22), t-value = 0.41, P = 0.68, eight studies]. There was a significant negative association between the magnetization transfer ratio and clinical disability, as assessed by the Expanded Disability Status Scale [r = -0.32 (95% CI -0.46 to -0.17); z-value = -4.33, P < 0.001, 13 studies]. Evidence suggests that magnetization transfer imaging metrics are sensitive to pathological brain changes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, although effect sizes were small in comparison to inter-study variability. Recommendations include: better harmonized magnetization transfer acquisition protocols with detailed methodological reporting standards; larger, well-phenotyped cohorts, including healthy controls; and, further exploration of techniques such as magnetization transfer saturation or inhomogeneous magnetization transfer ratio.

Project description:Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease affecting the central nervous system, characterised by neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration. Fatigue and depression are common, debilitating, and intertwined symptoms in people with relapsing-remitting MS (pwRRMS). An increased understanding of brain changes and mechanisms underlying fatigue and depression in RRMS could lead to more effective interventions and enhancement of quality of life. To elucidate the relationship between depression and fatigue and brain connectivity in pwRRMS we conducted a systematic review. Searched databases were PubMed, Web-of-Science and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were: studied participants with RRMS (n ≥ 20; ≥ 18 years old) and differentiated between MS subtypes; published between 2001-01-01 and 2023-01-18; used fatigue and depression assessments validated for MS; included brain structural, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) or diffusion MRI (dMRI). Sixty studies met the criteria: 18 dMRI (15 fatigue, 5 depression) and 22 fMRI (20 fatigue, 5 depression) studies. The literature was heterogeneous; half of studies reported no correlation between brain connectivity measures and fatigue or depression. Positive findings showed that abnormal cortico-limbic structural and functional connectivity was associated with depression. Fatigue was linked to connectivity measures in cortico-thalamic-basal-ganglial networks. Additionally, both depression and fatigue were related to altered cingulum structural connectivity, and functional connectivity involving thalamus, cerebellum, frontal lobe, ventral tegmental area, striatum, default mode and attention networks, and supramarginal, precentral, and postcentral gyri. Qualitative analysis suggests structural and functional connectivity changes, possibly due to axonal and/or myelin loss, in the cortico-thalamic-basal-ganglial and cortico-limbic network may underlie fatigue and depression in pwRRMS, respectively, but the overall results were inconclusive, possibly explained by heterogeneity and limited number of studies. This highlights the need for further studies including advanced MRI to detect more subtle brain changes in association with depression and fatigue. Future studies using optimised imaging protocols and validated depression and fatigue measures are required to clarify the substrates underlying these symptoms in pwRRMS.

Project description:Relapsing-remitting dynamics are a hallmark of autoimmune diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis (MS). A clinical relapse in MS reflects an acute focal inflammatory event in the central nervous system that affects signal conduction by damaging myelinated axons. Those events are evident in T1-weighted post-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as contrast enhancing lesions (CEL). CEL dynamics are considered unpredictable and are characterized by high intra- and inter-patient variability. Here, a population approach (nonlinear mixed-effects models) was applied to analyse of CEL progression, aiming to propose a model that adequately captures CEL dynamics.We explored several discrete distribution models to CEL counts observed in nine MS patients undergoing a monthly MRI for 48 months. All patients were enrolled in the study free of immunosuppressive drugs, except for intravenous methylprednisolone or oral prednisone taper for a clinical relapse. Analyses were performed with the nonlinear mixed-effect modelling software NONMEM 7.2. Although several models were able to adequately characterize the observed CEL dynamics, the negative binomial distribution model had the best predictive ability. Significant improvements in fitting were observed when the CEL counts from previous months were incorporated to predict the current month's CEL count. The predictive capacity of the model was validated using a second cohort of fourteen patients who underwent monthly MRIs during 6-months. This analysis also identified and quantified the effect of steroids for the relapse treatment.The model was able to characterize the observed relapsing-remitting CEL dynamic and to quantify the inter-patient variability. Moreover, the nature of the effect of steroid treatment suggested that this therapy helps resolve older CELs yet does not affect newly appearing active lesions in that month. This model could be used for design of future longitudinal studies and clinical trials, as well as for the evaluation of new therapies.

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Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

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Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

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