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Is the association between maternal alcohol consumption in pregnancy and pre-school child behavioural and emotional problems causal? Multiple approaches for controlling unmeasured confounding.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Hazardous drinking (i.e. alcohol consumption that places drinkers at risk for adverse health outcomes) during pregnancy is associated with adverse child outcomes. To address whether the associations are causal, we aimed to estimate the effect of maternal hazardous drinking during the first trimester on offspring emotional and behavioural problems throughout the pre-school age. We adjusted for: (1) measured confounding (e.g. smoking), (2) familial risk factors by sibling control design and (3) non-shared environmental risk factors by using hazardous drinking the 3 months before pregnancy as an instrumental variable. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. Participants were recruited between 1999 and 2009 at ultrasound examination offered to all pregnant women in Norway. Data were collected during the 17th and the 30th weeks of gestation, and when the children were aged 1.5, 3 and 5 years. SETTING:Norway, 1999-2015. PARTICIPANTS:The sample consisted of 14?639 mothers with 25 744 offspring siblings from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. MEASUREMENTS:Respondents self-reported on: alcohol consumption, children's emotional problems (i.e. emotional reactive, anxiety/depression, somatic complaints) and children's behavioural problems (i.e. attention and aggressive behaviour) throughout pre-school age. We used longitudinal latent growth curve models to estimate the effect of maternal drinking during the first trimester on offspring emotional and behavioural problems. FINDINGS:Most associations were strongly reduced after controlling for both familial and measured environmental risk factors. After adjustment, exposed children were more emotionally reactive [? = 2.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.13-4.53] and had more somatic complaints (? = 1.93; 95% CI = 0.09-3.77) at age 3, but not at age 5. Exposed children were less aggressive than unexposed siblings at age 5 (? = -2.27; 95% CI = -4.02 to -0.52). CONCLUSIONS:Children exposed to their mothers' hazardous drinking during the first trimester appear to be more emotionally reactive and have more somatic complaints at age 3, but not at age 5, and are less aggressive at age 5 compared with unexposed siblings.

SUBMITTER: Lund IO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7259544 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Is the association between maternal alcohol consumption in pregnancy and pre-school child behavioural and emotional problems causal? Multiple approaches for controlling unmeasured confounding.

Lund Ingunn Olea IO Moen Eilertsen Espen E Gjerde Line C LC Røysamb Espen E Wood Mollie M Reichborn-Kjennerud Ted T Ystrom Eivind E

Addiction (Abingdon, England) 20190310 6

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Hazardous drinking (i.e. alcohol consumption that places drinkers at risk for adverse health outcomes) during pregnancy is associated with adverse child outcomes. To address whether the associations are causal, we aimed to estimate the effect of maternal hazardous drinking during the first trimester on offspring emotional and behavioural problems throughout the pre-school age. We adjusted for: (1) measured confounding (e.g. smoking), (2) familial risk factors by sibli ...[more]

PMID: 30734375

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Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to assess how maternal mental health mediates the association between childhood socio-economic conditions at birth and subsequent child behavioural and emotional problem scores.MethodsAnalysis of the Wirral Child Health and Development Study (WCHADS), a prospective epidemiological longitudinal study of the early origins of child mental health (n = 664). Household income at 20-weeks gestation, a measure of socio-economic conditions (SECs) in pregnancy, was the main exposure. The outcome measure was externalising and internalising problems, as measured by the Child Behaviour Checklist at 5 years. We assessed the association of household income with child behavioural outcomes in sequential linear models adjusting for maternal mental health in the pre- and post- natal period.ResultsChildren of mothers in more disadvantaged households had higher scores for externalising behaviour with a difference of 3.6 points comparing the most affluent to the most disadvantaged families (the socio-economic (SEC) gap). In our regression model adjusting for baseline confounders, comparing children of mothers in the most disadvantaged households to the least disadvantaged, we found that most disadvantaged children scored 45 percentage points (95% CI 9, 93) higher for externalising problems, and 42% of this difference was explained in the fully adjusted model. Adjusting for prenatal maternal depressive symptomology attenuated the SEC gap in externalising problems by about a third, rendering the association non-significant, whilst adjusting for pre- and post-natal maternal mental health attenuated the SEC gap by 42%. There was no significant relationship between household income and internalising problems.ConclusionSocial disadvantage is associated with higher child externalising behaviour problems score at age 5, and about 40% of this was explained by maternal perinatal mental health. Policies supporting maternal mental health in pregnancy are important to address the early emergence of inequalities in child mental health.

Project description:BackgroundSelection bias and unmeasured confounding are fundamental problems in epidemiology that threaten study internal and external validity. These phenomena are particularly dangerous in internet-based public health surveillance, where traditional mitigation and adjustment methods are inapplicable, unavailable, or out of date. Recent theoretical advances in causal modeling can mitigate these threats, but these innovations have not been widely deployed in the epidemiological community.ObjectiveThe purpose of our paper is to demonstrate the practical utility of causal modeling to both detect unmeasured confounding and selection bias and guide model selection to minimize bias. We implemented this approach in an applied epidemiological study of the COVID-19 cumulative infection rate in the New York City (NYC) spring 2020 epidemic.MethodsWe collected primary data from Qualtrics surveys of Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) crowd workers residing in New Jersey and New York State across 2 sampling periods: April 11-14 and May 8-11, 2020. The surveys queried the subjects on household health status and demographic characteristics. We constructed a set of possible causal models of household infection and survey selection mechanisms and ranked them by compatibility with the collected survey data. The most compatible causal model was then used to estimate the cumulative infection rate in each survey period.ResultsThere were 527 and 513 responses collected for the 2 periods, respectively. Response demographics were highly skewed toward a younger age in both survey periods. Despite the extremely strong relationship between age and COVID-19 symptoms, we recovered minimally biased estimates of the cumulative infection rate using only primary data and the most compatible causal model, with a relative bias of +3.8% and -1.9% from the reported cumulative infection rate for the first and second survey periods, respectively.ConclusionsWe successfully recovered accurate estimates of the cumulative infection rate from an internet-based crowdsourced sample despite considerable selection bias and unmeasured confounding in the primary data. This implementation demonstrates how simple applications of structural causal modeling can be effectively used to determine falsifiable model conditions, detect selection bias and confounding factors, and minimize estimate bias through model selection in a novel epidemiological context. As the disease and social dynamics of COVID-19 continue to evolve, public health surveillance protocols must continue to adapt; the emergence of Omicron variants and shift to at-home testing as recent challenges. Rigorous and transparent methods to develop, deploy, and diagnosis adapted surveillance protocols will be critical to their success.

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Is the association between maternal alcohol consumption in pregnancy and pre-school child behavioural and emotional problems causal? Multiple approaches for controlling unmeasured confounding.

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Is the association between maternal alcohol consumption in pregnancy and pre-school child behavioural and emotional problems causal? Multiple approaches for controlling unmeasured confounding.

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