Project description:As the first-wave COVID-19 has passed in 2020, people's awareness of self-protection began to decline gradually. How to prevent and control the second-wave COVID-19 has become an important issue in many countries and regions. By analyzing the transmission of the second-wave COVID-19 caused by an imported case in Tonghua City, Jilin Province, China, in January 2021, we establish a new mathematical COVID-19 model to simulate the transmission characteristics of the second-wave COVID-19. First, we analyze the basic properties of the model, prove the existence of the equilibrium point, and obtain the expression of the basic reproduction number with important biological significance. Secondly, we use the weighted nonlinear least square estimation method to fit the cases in Tonghua City of Jilin Province in January 2021, and get the estimated value of the parameters. The basic reproduction number of the second-wave COVID-19 in Tonghua City is R0=1.0695 , which is much smaller than that of the first-wave COVID-19 in Wuhan in 2020. Finally, in the optimal control part, we consider two control methods (keeping social distance and nucleic acid detection of all people in the city) to simulate the control of the disease. The results show that the control intensity of the two control methods needs to be dynamically changed and adjusted, so that the cost can be minimized with the least infection. The results of this paper can not only provide suggestions for health management departments, but also provide a reference for the analysis of the second-wave COVID-19 in other countries or regions.
Project description:The fight against COVID-19 is hindered by similarly presenting viral infections that may confound detection and monitoring. We examined person-generated health data (PGHD), consisting of survey and commercial wearable data from individuals' everyday lives, for 230 people who reported a COVID-19 diagnosis between March 30, 2020, and April 27, 2020 (n = 41 with wearable data). Compared with self-reported diagnosed flu cases from the same time frame (n = 426, 85 with wearable data) or pre-pandemic (n = 6,270, 1,265 with wearable data), COVID-19 patients reported a distinct symptom constellation that lasted longer (median of 12 versus 9 and 7 days, respectively) and peaked later after illness onset. Wearable data showed significant changes in daily steps and prevalence of anomalous resting heart rate measurements, of similar magnitudes for both the flu and COVID-19 cohorts. Our findings highlight the need to include flu comparator arms when evaluating PGHD applications aimed to be highly specific for COVID-19.
Project description:Several French regions where coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been reported currently show a renewed increase in ILI cases in the general practice-based Sentinelles network. We computed the number of excess cases by region from 24 February to 8 March 2020 and found a correlation with the number of reported COVID-19 cases so far. The data suggest larger circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the French population than apparent from confirmed cases.
Project description:Data from Chicago confirm the end of flu season coincides with the beginning of pollen season. More importantly, the end of flu season also coincides with onset of seasonal aerosolization of mold spores. Overall, the data suggest bioaerosols, especially mold spores, compete with viruses for a shared receptor, with the periodicity of influenza-like illnesses, including COVID-19, a consequence of seasonal factors that influence aerosolization of competing species.
Project description:Background: The lack of specific vaccines or drugs against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) warrants studies focusing on alternative clinical approaches to reduce the spread of this pandemic disease. In this study, we investigated whether anti-influenza vaccination plays a role in minimizing the diffusion of COVID-19 in the Italian population aged 65 and over. Methods: Four COVID-19 outcomes were used: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence, hospitalizations for COVID-19 symptoms, admissions to intensive care units for reasons related to SARS-CoV-2, and deaths attributable to COVID-19. Results: At univariate analyses, the influenza vaccination coverage rates correlated negatively with all COVID-19 outcomes (Beta ranging from -134 to -0.61; all p < 0.01). At multivariable analyses, influenza vaccination coverage rates correlated independently with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (Beta (95% C.I.): -130 (-198, -62); p = 0.001), hospitalizations for COVID-19 symptoms (Beta (95% C.I.): -4.16 (-6.27, -2.05); p = 0.001), admission to intensive care units for reasons related to SARS-CoV-2 (Beta (95% C.I.): -0.58 (-1.05, -0.12); p = 0.017), and number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 (Beta (95% C.I.): -3.29 (-5.66, -0.93); p = 0.010). The R2 observed in the unadjusted analysis increased from 82% to 159% for all the considered outcomes after multivariable analyses. Conclusions: In the Italian population, the coverage rate of the influenza vaccination in people aged 65 and over is associated with a reduced spread and a less severe clinical expression of COVID-19. This finding warrants ad hoc studies to investigate the role of influenza vaccination in preventing the spread of COVID-19.
Project description:Coronavirus Disease 2019 has emerged as a significant global concern, triggering harsh public health restrictions in a successful bid to curb its exponential growth. As discussion shifts towards relaxation of these restrictions, there is significant concern of second-wave resurgence. The key to managing these outbreaks is early detection and intervention, and yet there is significant lag time associated with usage of laboratory confirmed cases for surveillance purposes. To address this, syndromic surveillance can be considered to provide a timelier alternative for first-line screening. Existing syndromic surveillance solutions are however typically focused around a known disease and have limited capability to distinguish between outbreaks of individual diseases sharing similar syndromes. This poses a challenge for surveillance of COVID-19 as its active periods are tend to overlap temporally with other influenza-like illnesses. In this study we explore performing sentinel syndromic surveillance for COVID-19 and other influenza-like illnesses using a deep learning-based approach. Our methods are based on aberration detection utilizing autoencoders that leverages symptom prevalence distributions to distinguish outbreaks of two ongoing diseases that share similar syndromes, even if they occur concurrently. We first demonstrate that this approach works for detection of outbreaks of influenza, which has known temporal boundaries. We then demonstrate that the autoencoder can be trained to not alert on known and well-managed influenza-like illnesses such as the common cold and influenza. Finally, we applied our approach to 2019-2020 data in the context of a COVID-19 syndromic surveillance task to demonstrate how implementation of such a system could have provided early warning of an outbreak of a novel influenza-like illness that did not match the symptom prevalence profile of influenza and other known influenza-like illnesses.
Project description:Co-administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza vaccines has several advantages, has been advocated by various public health authorities and should be seen as an opportunity to increase the uptake of both vaccines. The objective of this survey was to quantify the acceptance of concomitant COVID-19/influenza vaccination and to identify its correlates in a representative sample of Italian adults. Of 2463 participants, a total of 22.9% were favorable to vaccine co-administration, while 16.6% declared their firm unwillingness to receive both vaccines simultaneously. The remaining 60.5% of subjects could be dubbed hesitant to some degree. Compliance with the primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule (adjusted proportional odds ratio (aOR) = 7.78), previous influenza vaccination (aOR = 1.89) and trust in public health institutions (aOR = 1.22) were the main determinants of positive attitudes toward vaccine co-administration. Other significant correlates included age, sex, perceived disease severity and vaccination risk-benefit, being offered a more personalized influenza vaccine and recent seeking for influenza-related information. In Italy, hesitancy toward COVID-19/influenza vaccine co-administration is common and appears to be higher than hesitancy toward either vaccine administered alone. This pattern is multifaceted and requires specific and tailored strategies, with public health institutions playing the central role.
Project description:Although most SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals experience mild COVID-19, some patients suffer from severe COVID-19, which is accompanied by acute respiratory distress syndrome and systemic inflammation. To identify factors driving severe progression of COVID-19, we performed single-cell RNA-seq using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) obtained from healthy donors, patients with mild or severe COVID-19, and patients with severe influenza. Patients with COVID-19 exhibited hyper-inflammatory signatures across all types of cells among PBMCs, particularly upregulation of the TNF/IL-1beta-driven inflammatory response as compared to severe influenza. In classical monocytes from patients with severe COVID-19, type I IFN response co-existed with the TNF/IL-1beta-driven inflammation, and this was not seen in patients with milder COVID-19 infection. Based on this, we propose that the type I IFN response exacerbates inflammation in patients with severe COVID-19 infection.
Project description:BackgroundThe current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, Hubei, China, spreads across national and international borders.MethodsWe prospectively collected medical records of 14 health care workers (HCWs) who were infected with SARS-CoV-2, in neurosurgery department of Wuhan Union Hospital, China.ResultsAmong the 14 HCWs, 12 were conformed cases, the other 2 were suspected cases. Most of them were either exposed to the two index patients or infected coworkers, without knowing they were COVID-19 patients. There were 4 male and 10 female infected HCWs in this cohort, whose mean age was 36 years (SD, 6 years). The main symptoms included myalgia or fatigue (100%), fever (86%) and dry cough (71%). On admission, 79% of infected HCWs showed leucopenia and 43% lymphopenia. Reduced complement C3 could be seen in 57% of the infected HCWs and IL-6 was significantly elevated in 86% of them. The proportion of lymphocytes subsets, concentrations of immunoglobulins, complement C4, IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ were within normal range in these 14 infected HCWs. The most frequent findings on pulmonary computed tomographic images were bilateral multifocal ground-glass opacifications (86%).ConclusionsHuman-to-human transmission of COVID-19 pneumonia has occurred among HCWs, and most of these infected HCWs with confirmed COVID-19 are mild cases. Our data suggest that in the epidemic area of COVID-19, stringent and urgent surveillance and infection-control measures should be implemented to protect doctors and nurses from COVID-19 infection.