Dataset Information

Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020.

ABSTRACT: Several French regions where coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been reported currently show a renewed increase in ILI cases in the general practice-based Sentinelles network. We computed the number of excess cases by region from 24 February to 8 March 2020 and found a correlation with the number of reported COVID-19 cases so far. The data suggest larger circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the French population than apparent from confirmed cases.

SUBMITTER: Boelle PY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7160441 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020.

Boëlle Pierre-Yves PY Souty Cécile C Launay Titouan T Guerrisi Caroline C Turbelin Clément C Behillil Sylvie S Enouf Vincent V Poletto Chiara C Lina Bruno B van der Werf Sylvie S Lévy-Bruhl Daniel D Colizza Vittoria V Hanslik Thomas T Blanchon Thierry T

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20200401 14

Several French regions where coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been reported currently show a renewed increase in ILI cases in the general practice-based <i>Sentinelles</i> network. We computed the number of excess cases by region from 24 February to 8 March 2020 and found a correlation with the number of reported COVID-19 cases so far. The data suggest larger circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the French population than apparent from confirmed cases. ...[more]

PMID: 32290901

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Project description:ObjectivesThere is uncertainty about when the first cases of COVID-19 appeared in Spain. We aimed to determine whether influenza diagnoses masked early COVID-19 cases and estimate numbers of undetected COVID-19 cases.DesignTime-series study of influenza and COVID-19 cases, 2010-2020.SettingPrimary care, Catalonia, Spain.ParticipantsPeople registered in primary-care practices, covering >6 million people and >85% of the population.Main outcome measuresWeekly new cases of influenza and COVID-19 clinically diagnosed in primary care.AnalysesDaily counts of both cases were computed using the total cases recorded over the previous 7 days to avoid weekly effects. Epidemic curves were characterised for the 2010-2011 to 2019-2020 influenza seasons. Influenza seasons with a similar epidemic curve and peak case number as the 2019-2020 season were used to model expected case numbers with Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models, overall and stratified by age. Daily excess influenza cases were defined as the number of observed minus expected cases.ResultsFour influenza season curves (2011-2012, 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2016-2017) were used to estimate the number of expected cases of influenza in 2019-2020. Between 4 February 2020 and 20 March 2020, 8017 (95% CI: 1841 to 14 718) excess influenza cases were identified. This excess was highest in the 15-64 age group.ConclusionsCOVID-19 cases may have been present in the Catalan population when the first imported case was reported on 25 February 2020. COVID-19 carriers may have been misclassified as influenza diagnoses in primary care, boosting community transmission before public health measures were taken. The use of clinical codes could misrepresent the true occurrence of the disease. Serological or PCR testing should be used to confirm these findings. In future, this surveillance of excess influenza could help detect new outbreaks of COVID-19 or other influenza-like pathogens, to initiate early public health responses.

Project description:BackgroundIn March 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization.AimOur objective was to identify risk factors predictive of severe disease and death in France.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, we included patients ≥ 18 years old with confirmed COVID-19, hospitalised in Strasbourg and Mulhouse hospitals (France), in March 2020. We respectively compared patients who developed severe disease (admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or death) and patients who died, to those who did not, by day 7 after hospitalisation.ResultsAmong 1,045 patients, 424 (41%) had severe disease, including 335 (32%) who were admitted to ICU, and 115 (11%) who died. Mean age was 66 years (range: 20-100), and 612 (59%) were men. Almost 75% of patients with body mass index (BMI) data (n = 897) had a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 (n = 661). Independent risk factors associated with severe disease were advanced age (odds ratio (OR): 1.1 per 10-year increase; 95% CrI (credible interval): 1.0-1.2), male sex (OR: 2.1; 95% CrI: 1.5-2.8), BMI of 25-29.9 kg/m2 (OR: 1.8; 95% CrI: 1.2-2.7) or ≥ 30 (OR: 2.2; 95% CrI: 1.5-3.3), dyspnoea (OR: 2.5; 95% CrI: 1.8-3.4) and inflammatory parameters (elevated C-reactive protein and neutrophil count, low lymphocyte count). Risk factors associated with death were advanced age (OR: 2.7 per 10-year increase; 95% CrI: 2.1-3.4), male sex (OR: 1.7; 95% CrI: 1.1-2.7), immunosuppression (OR: 3.8; 95% CrI: 1.6-7.7), diabetes (OR: 1.7; 95% CrI: 1.0-2.7), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.3; 95% CrI: 1.3-3.9), dyspnoea (OR: 2.1; 95% CrI: 1.2-3.4) and inflammatory parameters.ConclusionsOverweightedness, obesity, advanced age, male sex, comorbidities, dyspnoea and inflammation are risk factors for severe COVID-19 or death in hospitalised patients. Identifying these features among patients in routine clinical practice might improve COVID-19 management.

Dataset Information

Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020.

Publications

Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020.

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