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Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope.


ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude. METHODS:We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. RESULTS:We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS:Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Zhang L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7266579 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope.

Zhang Lei L   Tao Yusha Y   Wang Jing J   Ong Jason J JJ   Tang Weiming W   Zou Maosheng M   Bai Lu L   Ding Miao M   Shen Mingwang M   Zhuang Guihua G   Fairley Christopher K CK  

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20200602


<h4>Objectives</h4>The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent e  ...[more]

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