Transmission dynamics of and insights from the 2018–2019 measles outbreak in New York City: A modeling study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yang W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7272232 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Importance:Internationally imported cases of measles into the United States can lead to outbreaks requiring extensive and rapid control measures. Importation of measles from an unvaccinated adolescent in 2013 led to what has been the largest outbreak of measles in New York City, New York, since 1992. Objective:To describe the epidemiology and public health burden in terms of resources and cost of the 2013 measles outbreak in New York City. Design, Setting, and Participants:This epidemiologic assessment and cost analysis conducted between August 15, 2013, and August 5, 2014, examined all outbreak-associated cases of measles among persons residing in New York City in 2013. Exposures:Measles virus. Main Outcomes and Measures:Numbers of measles cases and contacts. Total personnel time and total direct cost to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH), calculated as the sum of inputs (supplies and materials, equipment, and logistics) and personnel time (salary and fringe benefits). Results:Between March 13, 2013, and June 9, 2013, 58 persons in New York City with a median age of 3 years (range, 0-32 years) were identified as having measles. Among these individuals, 45 (78%) were at least 12 months old and were unvaccinated owing to parental refusal or intentional delay. Only 28 individuals (48%) visited a medical health care professional who suspected measles and reported the case to the DOHMH at the initial clinical suspicion. Many case patients were not immediately placed into airborne isolation, resulting in exposures in 11 health care facilities. In total, 3351 exposed contacts were identified. Total direct costs to the New York City DOHMH were $394?448, and a total of 10?054 hours were consumed responding to and controlling the outbreak. Conclusions and Relevance:Vaccine refusals and delays appeared to have propagated a large outbreak following importation of measles into the United States. Prompt recognition of measles along with rapid implementation of airborne isolation of individuals suspected of measles infection in health care facilities and timely reporting to public health agencies may avoid large numbers of exposures. The response and containment of measles outbreaks are resource intensive.
| S-EPMC6143061 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Given sustained high vaccination coverage and enhanced surveillance for measles, Spain has been free of endemic measles transmission since 2014, achieving elimination certification from the World Health Organization in 2017. In November 2017, measles was introduced through an imported case travelling to the Valencian Community, causing an interregional outbreak. Here, we describe the outbreak using data reported to the national epidemiological surveillance network. The outbreak involved 154 cases (67 males, 87 females) notified in four regions; 148 were laboratory-confirmed and six epidemiologically linked. Most cases were adults aged 30-39 (n = 62, 40.3%) years. Sixty-two cases were hospitalised (40.3%) and 35 presented complications (22.7%). Two thirds of the cases (n = 102) were unvaccinated including 11 infants (≤ 1 year) not yet eligible for vaccination. The main route of transmission was nosocomial; at least six healthcare facilities and 41 healthcare workers and support personnel were affected. Sequencing of the viral nucleoprotein C-terminus (N450) identified genotype B3, belonging to the circulating MVs/Dublin.IRL/8.16-variant. Control measures were implemented, and the outbreak was contained in July 2018. The outbreak highlighted that raising awareness about measles and improving the vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated subgroups and personnel of healthcare facilities are key measures for prevention of future outbreaks.
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Project description:We quantified measles transmissibility during a measles outbreak in Ohio in 2014 to evaluate the impact of public health responses. Case incidence and the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary cases and secondary cases) were used to assess trends in the effective reproduction number R (the average number of secondary cases generated per case). A mathematical model was parameterized using early R values to determine the size and duration of the outbreak that would have occurred if containment measures had not been initiated, as well as the impact of vaccination. As containment started, we found a 4-fold decline in R (from approximately 4 to 1) over the course of 2 weeks and maintenance of R < 1 as control measures continued. Under a conservative scenario, the model estimated 8,472 cases (90% confidence interval (CI): 8,447, 8,489) over 195 days (90% CI: 179, 223) without control efforts and 715 cases (90% CI: 103, 1,338) over 128 days (90% CI: 117, 139) when vaccination was included; 7,757 fewer cases (90% CI: 7,130, 8,365) and 67 fewer outbreak days (90% CI: 48, 98) were attributed to vaccination. Vaccination may not account entirely for transmission reductions, suggesting that changes in community behavior (social distancing) and other control efforts (isolation, quarantining) are important. Our findings highlight the benefits of measles outbreak response and of understanding behavior change dynamics.
| S-EPMC6118071 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2019, there were multiple outbreaks of measles in the United States. In the context of the public awareness of these outbreaks, we performed an intervention with the intent to improve the rate of measles immunization in our pediatric population. Pediatric patients that were lacking adequate measles immunization were identified by electronic medical record (EMR) survey. Charts were reviewed and updated if records were found to be incomplete. Parents of the remaining children were sent a letter, personally signed by the child's primary care provider, encouraging measles immunization. A measles fact sheet, produced by the United States Center for Disease Control, was also included with the letter. There were 44 patients in the study group whose parents received a letter and measles fact sheet. As a result, 5 of these children were brought in for a measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) immunization. The 44 patients whose parents received a letter included 20 patients whose parents had previously expressed intent to not vaccinate their children as documented in the EMR. None of these children received an MMR immunization. Although small in scope, this project provides a glimpse into the importance of personal provider guidance to parents who are inclined to immunize their children. Unfortunately, it also demonstrated that provider advice did not change the opinions of parents who had already taken a stance against vaccination, even in the context of an urgent public health situation that had garnered widespread coverage in the lay press and social media.
| S-EPMC8841912 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood.ObjectivesTo explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns.MethodsWe examined 1915-1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re ) for each 1-year age cohort.ResultsFour pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55-1·68), 1·68 (1·65-1·72), 1·67 (1·61-1·73), and 1·69 (1·63-1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves.ConclusionsThe pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves.
| S-EPMC4082668 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, formulating targeted policy interventions that are informed by differential severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics will be of vital importance to national and regional governments. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities. We use these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices to instantiate specific models for Hubei, China; Lombardy, Italy; and New York City, United States. Using data on reported deaths to obtain a posterior distribution over unknown parameters, we infer differences in the progression of the epidemic in the three locations. We also examine the role of transmission due to particular age groups on total infections and deaths. The effect of limiting contacts by a particular age group varies by location, indicating that strategies to reduce transmission should be tailored based on population-specific demography and social structure. These findings highlight the role of between-population variation in formulating policy interventions. Across the three populations, though, we find that targeted "salutary sheltering" by 50% of a single age group may substantially curtail transmission when combined with the adoption of physical distancing measures by the rest of the population.
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Project description:Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.
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Project description:Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
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Project description:In May 2018, measles was introduced in the Dubrovnik region by an adult who recently travelled to Kosovo*. Control measures and an outbreak investigation were implemented: 15 epidemiologically-linked cases met the outbreak case definition of a visitor/resident of Dubrovnik-Neretva County with laboratory-confirmed measles and symptom onset beginning on May 19. New cases were identified through hospitals and primary care physicians. Throat swabs, urine and/or serum samples were collected from outbreak cases. RT-PCR detection of viral RNA and IgM/IgG was used to confirm infection. The median age of cases was 33 years, with one 8 month-old infant. Vaccination status was unknown for 9 cases, three were unvaccinated, one case had history of one dose and two cases reported receiving two doses of measles-containing vaccine. There were 11 hospitalisations and one person developed pneumonia. Control teams undertook an extensive search of contacts and implemented a range of control measures. Despite the outbreak occurring at the beginning of the summer tourism season, it was contained and did not spread to neighbouring regions. With continuing measles transmission in Europe, even small outbreaks create a burden on the health system in countries which have eliminated measles, and illustrate the importance of maintaining high immunisation coverage.
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Project description:This paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in-sample and out-of-sample.
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