A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hempel K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4424677 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
Hempel Karsten K Earn David J D DJ
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20150501 106
Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully expl ...[more]
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